Ive been watching some of Steve's videos on his blog page (quiteamug) and watched how he approaches and trades a market.
Amongst other techniques he interprets the market by seeing the whole market and based on the full market depth and the book percentage can anticipate the movement and direction on the favourite.
Although its not an exact science (as Steve will be the first to agree) it's extremely effective.
This got me around to thinking whether anyone trades the in play in the same manner, ie gut feel and interpretation of what they can see in front of them and even doing so without watching live pictures.
Although the book percentage isn't as tight in play, it can only be stretched so far before it affects the prices and if one price contracts another must go out to some extent. If you watch a race you can see that the techniques used above, could perhaps be used in play too(?)
Anyone who has been around a long time will remember Mr Wong and his In Play blog. Although he didn't solely use the techniques above as he relied on fast pictures, his published P&L's were enormous. Anyway, just curious to see whether anyone trades in play this way (rather than the traditional way i.e. fast pictures) and have had success doing so as their main method of trading?
Thanks
regards
Peter
In Play Trading
I trade in play using several different angles.
I look for horses trading very short that have done a lot of work in the race and have been pulling and not travelling without any ease. This can work well, but it's very easy to get wrong. I do ok, but not brilliant.
The other way is I use the way money is arriving on the ladder. I particularly like a large amount stuck on the back side (someone wanting to lay it) You can see the money stacking up on the lay side as people want to back it, and thin under the big sum on the back side. The trick is watch as the money is eroded on the big bet. This is someone closing a position, not someone who thinks the horse cannot win. Just before the money is exhausted, go in and take some and lay it immediately -20 ticks. Quite often the price will fall very quickly. If it doesn't i just get out best I can. I think it's easier to trade the odds than try to interpret the pictures. The markets behave in a set way, just much quicker and much more volatile. If you can interpret them and recognise patterns you have a chance.
It goes without saying that in play betting is as risky as it gets. I never go in with huge stakes unless I think I am on 10 foot of concrete. Things change very quickly.
I'll see if i can record this and show you exactly what I mean.
MG
I look for horses trading very short that have done a lot of work in the race and have been pulling and not travelling without any ease. This can work well, but it's very easy to get wrong. I do ok, but not brilliant.
The other way is I use the way money is arriving on the ladder. I particularly like a large amount stuck on the back side (someone wanting to lay it) You can see the money stacking up on the lay side as people want to back it, and thin under the big sum on the back side. The trick is watch as the money is eroded on the big bet. This is someone closing a position, not someone who thinks the horse cannot win. Just before the money is exhausted, go in and take some and lay it immediately -20 ticks. Quite often the price will fall very quickly. If it doesn't i just get out best I can. I think it's easier to trade the odds than try to interpret the pictures. The markets behave in a set way, just much quicker and much more volatile. If you can interpret them and recognise patterns you have a chance.
It goes without saying that in play betting is as risky as it gets. I never go in with huge stakes unless I think I am on 10 foot of concrete. Things change very quickly.
I'll see if i can record this and show you exactly what I mean.
MG
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I used to think that behind actually being at the course the next fastest feed for 'pictures' was the Betfair market and also I thought 'the market' would be much better at understanding a race than I was able to.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I enjoy in play racing both simply watching the action and comparing the prices and trading the action too.
There are a lot of clock beaters and having met some I can honestly say that some are very poor at reading a race. Obviously some are pretty good and they are feeding off the poor ones. If you watch the horses as much as I have over the years, you get to spot certain styles. Some horses must be at the front, others cannot hit the front until late on where others like to run amongst other horses. I have been watching this action for over 40 years although the early days were voice only when I was sneaked into a smoky betting shop with my Granddad.
I spent two weeks working with a Russian trader and he asked me about profiling a race. He wanted to know if it was possible to find front running horses whose price would shorten in running. It is funny how the market easily ignores a big priced runner especially if it has little or no form. The other thing you will find is trainers or connections who do not want their horse to run well will often change the running style of their horses. A front runner will be buried at the back, a held up horse will be taken to the front. Some will call this cheating and I suppose if you take it to the nth degree it can be see as just that.
The biggest losing mistake I see with clock beaters is laying a horse as soon as it comes under pressure. I have a good friend who gets destroyed by this type of horse on many occasions and he seems unable to stop doing it. He sees the jockey start pushing and he hits the lay button only to find the horse responds well to pressure and wins. If you profile the race correctly you will find these horses.
The propensity to back horses into crazy low prices also astounds me. It has to be clock beaters at the track because others following the same strategy with slow pictures should meet plenty of lay money from clock beaters but they don't. I have seen horses reach <1.2 and they have never progressed beyond 3rd place. Now I know some people will say they'll make a profit long term but betting 3rd placed horses down to <1.2 will never make a profit and I have seen players like this start with £80-£100K and lose it all within 6 months.
As PeterLe said, the book is still fairly tight in play so it is not an easy way to make consistent money. If you can profile a race and then read it in-play then you can make money. Also, as Andy says, the market is clever and will know more than most so never think it will be easy.
There are a lot of clock beaters and having met some I can honestly say that some are very poor at reading a race. Obviously some are pretty good and they are feeding off the poor ones. If you watch the horses as much as I have over the years, you get to spot certain styles. Some horses must be at the front, others cannot hit the front until late on where others like to run amongst other horses. I have been watching this action for over 40 years although the early days were voice only when I was sneaked into a smoky betting shop with my Granddad.
I spent two weeks working with a Russian trader and he asked me about profiling a race. He wanted to know if it was possible to find front running horses whose price would shorten in running. It is funny how the market easily ignores a big priced runner especially if it has little or no form. The other thing you will find is trainers or connections who do not want their horse to run well will often change the running style of their horses. A front runner will be buried at the back, a held up horse will be taken to the front. Some will call this cheating and I suppose if you take it to the nth degree it can be see as just that.
The biggest losing mistake I see with clock beaters is laying a horse as soon as it comes under pressure. I have a good friend who gets destroyed by this type of horse on many occasions and he seems unable to stop doing it. He sees the jockey start pushing and he hits the lay button only to find the horse responds well to pressure and wins. If you profile the race correctly you will find these horses.
The propensity to back horses into crazy low prices also astounds me. It has to be clock beaters at the track because others following the same strategy with slow pictures should meet plenty of lay money from clock beaters but they don't. I have seen horses reach <1.2 and they have never progressed beyond 3rd place. Now I know some people will say they'll make a profit long term but betting 3rd placed horses down to <1.2 will never make a profit and I have seen players like this start with £80-£100K and lose it all within 6 months.
As PeterLe said, the book is still fairly tight in play so it is not an easy way to make consistent money. If you can profile a race and then read it in-play then you can make money. Also, as Andy says, the market is clever and will know more than most so never think it will be easy.
I've been looking at tick data on inplay horses lately using point and figure charts. Im finding it interesting how levels of support and resistance are respected, with the price lingering, taking a breath before moving through or rebounding. Im also watching the volume action in the final moments to see how much retracement occurs after the final big money drops in from the fast picture people.
By cutting out the frantic noise Im starting to find that there is quite a structured form to inplay markets.
I feel there is an edge that I can smell but cant find it yet.
By cutting out the frantic noise Im starting to find that there is quite a structured form to inplay markets.
I feel there is an edge that I can smell but cant find it yet.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
If you can recognise the spread of the bigger money could you use that as a bit of protection and nip in front of it for a cheeky offset?
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NileVentures
- Posts: 79
- Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:13 pm
- Location: West London
I would be really interested in a video/blog to illustrate this.mugsgame wrote:I'll see if i can record this and show you exactly what I mean.
MG
Gents
Thanks for the comments.
Andy, I agree with your comments. The prices 'nearly' always reflect the true chances of a horse winning. I say nearly because, for the reasons Jolly mentions, they dont always get it right. That's why we get the 1000/1 and the 1.01's. Ive spent a lot of time trying to work out why we get the 1.01's and 1000/1. Its only when you spend a lot of time analysing it does a pattern start to emerge (blurred at best)
Steve - I can see exactly what you mean regarding when there is a large amount sitting on the lay side. I can also see a characteristic in the in play market similar to the way you trade the pre off. Ie if the price crashes in on one runner (1st/2nd fav) then more than likely that not the price on another will drift out. This is what prompted me to write this post. I was wondering if anyone out there used the techniques you show on the blog for in play? Im sure there are because it almost mirrors the pre race just a lot faster with bigger gaps. I have tried to model this, but as we dont have full market depth in excel, it doesn't really work using the first three prices, but you can get a decent result interpreting the market manually/visually.
I just think that if a person were to specialise and spend many hours practicing this they could make it work long term as long as they have solid rules i.e. dont lay above x etc.
Anyway thanks for the comments
Regards
Peter
Thanks for the comments.
Andy, I agree with your comments. The prices 'nearly' always reflect the true chances of a horse winning. I say nearly because, for the reasons Jolly mentions, they dont always get it right. That's why we get the 1000/1 and the 1.01's. Ive spent a lot of time trying to work out why we get the 1.01's and 1000/1. Its only when you spend a lot of time analysing it does a pattern start to emerge (blurred at best)
Steve - I can see exactly what you mean regarding when there is a large amount sitting on the lay side. I can also see a characteristic in the in play market similar to the way you trade the pre off. Ie if the price crashes in on one runner (1st/2nd fav) then more than likely that not the price on another will drift out. This is what prompted me to write this post. I was wondering if anyone out there used the techniques you show on the blog for in play? Im sure there are because it almost mirrors the pre race just a lot faster with bigger gaps. I have tried to model this, but as we dont have full market depth in excel, it doesn't really work using the first three prices, but you can get a decent result interpreting the market manually/visually.
I just think that if a person were to specialise and spend many hours practicing this they could make it work long term as long as they have solid rules i.e. dont lay above x etc.
Anyway thanks for the comments
Regards
Peter
"This got me around to thinking whether anyone trades the in play in the same manner, ie gut feel and interpretation of what they can see in front of them and even doing so without watching live pictures"
For myself I'd rephrase that to " interpretation of what I see in front of me without watching live markets"
I rarely trade these days, preferring to back/lay (predominately lay) to a fixed stake/liability, in-play - working with the one click interface and a basic configuration - I pretty much ignore the market. Prefer to focus 100% on the race (not fast pics). I react as soon as I see what I'm looking for. I rarely back or lay at extremes (more in the middle) nor look to collect on fallers etc (I'm usually a sec behind that). I'm simply using decades of race watching experience to react to what often seems the obvious. I don't waste seconds jumping from live pics to market and back, I simply see and react.
My modus operandi wouldn't suit everybody but it work well for me.
I'm pretty sure a lot of the value I pick up on isn't coming from experienced race readers. Its coming from those more market focussed in their activity.
I know this is diversifying slightly on the OP's request but its good for people to know how others work.
For myself I'd rephrase that to " interpretation of what I see in front of me without watching live markets"
I rarely trade these days, preferring to back/lay (predominately lay) to a fixed stake/liability, in-play - working with the one click interface and a basic configuration - I pretty much ignore the market. Prefer to focus 100% on the race (not fast pics). I react as soon as I see what I'm looking for. I rarely back or lay at extremes (more in the middle) nor look to collect on fallers etc (I'm usually a sec behind that). I'm simply using decades of race watching experience to react to what often seems the obvious. I don't waste seconds jumping from live pics to market and back, I simply see and react.
My modus operandi wouldn't suit everybody but it work well for me.
I'm pretty sure a lot of the value I pick up on isn't coming from experienced race readers. Its coming from those more market focussed in their activity.
I know this is diversifying slightly on the OP's request but its good for people to know how others work.
I trade in a similar way in play. Just using my race reading experience to try and Lay runners trading way to short. When I get around to it I want to develop the market side of this. There is definitely an angle in here. This may be a good "project" for a few switched on individuals to work together on. There are definite patterns and they are exploitable at the prices available.Kalumpus wrote:"This got me around to thinking whether anyone trades the in play in the same manner, ie gut feel and interpretation of what they can see in front of them and even doing so without watching live pictures"
For myself I'd rephrase that to " interpretation of what I see in front of me without watching live markets"
I rarely trade these days, preferring to back/lay (predominately lay) to a fixed stake/liability, in-play - working with the one click interface and a basic configuration - I pretty much ignore the market. Prefer to focus 100% on the race (not fast pics). I react as soon as I see what I'm looking for. I rarely back or lay at extremes (more in the middle) nor look to collect on fallers etc (I'm usually a sec behind that). I'm simply using decades of race watching experience to react to what often seems the obvious. I don't waste seconds jumping from live pics to market and back, I simply see and react.
My modus operandi wouldn't suit everybody but it work well for me.
I'm pretty sure a lot of the value I pick up on isn't coming from experienced race readers. Its coming from those more market focussed in their activity.
I know this is diversifying slightly on the OP's request but its good for people to know how others work.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Mugsgame, what do you mean by develop the market side of this?
Euler wrote:If you look at the form book it's very easy to pick up a horses running style.
14:30 Beverley
Handwoven (In running notes)
Chased leaders
Led
Led
Prominent
Tracked leaders
Pressed leader
Chased leaders
Led
Chased leaders
Chased leaders
Prominent
Prominent
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
Peter this is true but he has a very bad draw today ,and i doubt he will make it to that corner in front at beverly to day i have laid him this morning and expect to get my back bet matched very quickly,if he makes the first 4 before they reach the turn he has a chance ,but the draw is terrible and im in for a lay ,considering going in again.Euler wrote:Euler wrote:If you look at the form book it's very easy to pick up a horses running style.
14:30 Beverley
Handwoven (In running notes)
Chased leaders
Led
Led
Prominent
Tracked leaders
Pressed leader
Chased leaders
Led
Chased leaders
Chased leaders
Prominent
Prominent
Marc