In Play Trading

[mugsgame]

"This got me around to thinking whether anyone trades the in play in the same manner, ie gut feel and interpretation of what they can see in front of them and even doing so without watching live pictures"

For myself I'd rephrase that to " interpretation of what I see in front of me without watching live markets"

I rarely trade these days, preferring to back/lay (predominately lay) to a fixed stake/liability, in-play - working with the one click interface and a basic configuration - I pretty much ignore the market. Prefer to focus 100% on the race (not fast pics). I react as soon as I see what I'm looking for. I rarely back or lay at extremes (more in the middle) nor look to collect on fallers etc (I'm usually a sec behind that). I'm simply using decades of race watching experience to react to what often seems the obvious. I don't waste seconds jumping from live pics to market and back, I simply see and react.

My modus operandi wouldn't suit everybody but it work well for me.

I'm pretty sure a lot of the value I pick up on isn't coming from experienced race readers. Its coming from those more market focussed in their activity.

I know this is diversifying slightly on the OP's request but its good for people to know how others work.

I trade in a similar way in play. Just using my race reading experience to try and Lay runners trading way to short. When I get around to it I want to develop the market side of this. There is definitely an angle in here. This may be a good "project" for a few switched on individuals to work together on. There are definite patterns and they are exploitable at the prices available.

[Euler]

If you look at the form book it's very easy to pick up a horses running style.

[steven1976]

Mugsgame, what do you mean by develop the market side of this?

[Euler]

If you look at the form book it's very easy to pick up a horses running style.

14:30 Beverley

Handwoven (In running notes)

Chased leaders
Led
Led
Prominent
Tracked leaders
Pressed leader
Chased leaders
Led
Chased leaders
Chased leaders
Prominent
Prominent

[convoysur-2]

If you look at the form book it's very easy to pick up a horses running style.

14:30 Beverley

Handwoven (In running notes)

Chased leaders
Led
Led
Prominent
Tracked leaders
Pressed leader
Chased leaders
Led
Chased leaders
Chased leaders
Prominent
Prominent

Peter this is true but he has a very bad draw today ,and i doubt he will make it to that corner in front at beverly to day i have laid him this morning and expect to get my back bet matched very quickly,if he makes the first 4 before they reach the turn he has a chance ,but the draw is terrible and im in for a lay ,considering going in again.
Marc

[Euler]

Y, lots of variables in-play (excuse the pun) but you can see the 'style' of the horse very easily.

[PeterLe]

Proform is a good source of info as used by some of the pros on here, in profiling horses in a way Peter suggest (fairly expensive from what I can remember)
I did trial it but found that whilst it picked out some potentials, whilst focussing on that I missed some opportunities (i.e. reacting to the market on the fly) that pro form didn't identify (i.e. that last race touched 1000 to 1), would proform have identified that?

[Euler]

I ended up missing this race, anybody see how it ran?

[adhuk]

I trade in play using several different angles.
I look for horses trading very short that have done a lot of work in the race and have been pulling and not travelling without any ease. This can work well, but it's very easy to get wrong. I do ok, but not brilliant.

The other way is I use the way money is arriving on the ladder. I particularly like a large amount stuck on the back side (someone wanting to lay it) You can see the money stacking up on the lay side as people want to back it, and thin under the big sum on the back side. The trick is watch as the money is eroded on the big bet. This is someone closing a position, not someone who thinks the horse cannot win. Just before the money is exhausted, go in and take some and lay it immediately -20 ticks. Quite often the price will fall very quickly. If it doesn't i just get out best I can. I think it's easier to trade the odds than try to interpret the pictures. The markets behave in a set way, just much quicker and much more volatile. If you can interpret them and recognise patterns you have a chance.
It goes without saying that in play betting is as risky as it gets. I never go in with huge stakes unless I think I am on 10 foot of concrete. Things change very quickly.
I'll see if i can record this and show you exactly what I mean.
MG

That's more or less the way I trade too. Live pictures are just a distraction. The ladders are a fast and effective way to read a race. I tend not to use the full field though. I'm only interested in trading the short end of the market so have four ladders open. I trade on the grid. It's useful to have a custom column set up to allow you to bet just outside of the betting range when the market starts to pick up, but I never stay in the race beyond two thirds anyway.

[wearthefoxhat]

I ended up missing this race, anybody see how it ran?

Just for you Peter I just watched the race....(4 years later)
(Courtesy of the Sporting Life website)

Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong. 5th/12.

Good point about style of running on each runner.

[firlandsfarm]

Proform is a good source of info as used by some of the pros on here, in profiling horses in a way Peter suggest (fairly expensive from what I can remember)
I did trial it but found that whilst it picked out some potentials, whilst focussing on that I missed some opportunities (i.e. reacting to the market on the fly) that pro form didn't identify (i.e. that last race touched 1000 to 1), would proform have identified that?

Peter, it's not expensive if you make a profit! I couldn't do without it, I access the Proform SQL database on my computer directly and create my own views ... you can find some very interesting stats going back over 20 years of race data and 10 years of BSP data.

[firlandsfarm]

The ladders are a fast and effective way to read a race.

Yes there are but for me they are too fast and furious! They bounce around all over the place and often go off ladder/screen and by the time you have recentered the ladder they are back to where they started! Am I missing a way to keep LTP in the middle and the ladder bounce rather than the price?

[firlandsfarm]

I have seen horses reach <1.2 and they have never progressed beyond 3rd place.

That's the Seb Coe syndrone they remember how he and Ovett would sit 2nd or 3rd just before the last bend with everyone knowing they would power past and win. You can see it often, the horse looks well positioned, never led, always been sheltered ... is running well and you are expecting that surge of speed in the last 1 - 2 furlongs (à la Rock of Gibraltar) lots of in-running players bundle on it, the price falls, others bundle on thinking they are missing out so the price tumbles even further, the jockey says "GO" and the horse says "I'm f**ked, sorry"!

I think in-running is more susceptable to emotional follow the crowd betting than the brown skirt brigade at a Dettori Ascot (average return per £1 staked on his rides at Ascot -£0.16, average return at all other courses -£0.02) and you don't get time to think. Because the odds can move so fast it's a now or never moment and human nature is to have the now in preference to never. I cannot see how you filter that out without a broadcast so you can form your own opinion.

[jimibt]

I have seen horses reach <1.2 and they have never progressed beyond 3rd place.

That's the Seb Coe syndrone they remember how he and Ovett would sit 2nd or 3rd just before the last bend with everyone knowing they would power past and win. You can see it often, the horse looks well positioned, never led, always been sheltered ... is running well and you are expecting that surge of speed in the last 1 - 2 furlongs (à la Rock of Gibraltar) lots of in-running players bundle on it, the price falls, others bundle on thinking they are missing out so the price tumbles even further, the jockey says "GO" and the horse says "I'm f**ked, sorry"!

I think in-running is more susceptable to emotional follow the crowd betting than the brown skirt brigade at a Dettori Ascot (average return per £1 staked on his rides at Ascot -£0.16, average return at all other courses -£0.02) and you don't get time to think. Because the odds can move so fast it's a now or never moment and human nature is to have the now in preference to never. I cannot see how you filter that out without a broadcast so you can form your own opinion.

this is really where automation (and in particular odds gaps and book%) come into their own. if you're not too greedy you can *blindly* use a combination of these to attack both back and lay positions for a micro profit across a number of runners in that final few furlongs... experimentation around the dynamics of those interactions will help illustrate how subtly the balance between one and t'other affect the outcome. keeps the emotional aspect at bay and may in essence be piggy tailing (in reverse) onto the very nature that you describe.

[ShaunWhite]

The ladders are a fast and effective way to read a race.

Yes there are but for me they are too fast and furious! They bounce around all over the place and often go off ladder/screen and by the time you have recentered the ladder they are back to where they started! Am I missing a way to keep LTP in the middle and the ladder bounce rather than the price?

Have you tried using the inplay trader screen.?