Trading Horse racing : Market movers - a little guidance.

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:15 am

Following the discussions in the thread "Market Moves - right or wrong?" I wanted to try and offer a bit more help.

I always feel a bit empty when I read about other traders struggling to grasp ideas, concepts, methods, call them what you will. I am not going soft and I appreciate that someone like Zenyatta is happier following betting.

Having worked with hundreds of traders I have learned one very important thing. It is vital they discover things for themselves. If they are spoon-fed in a logical 12345 method they will never truly learn what is happening and when the sequence changes to 12435 they will fail.

The first thing to accept is the market is never wrong. It is a simple mechanism driven by money, which in turn is fuelled by opinion. Some of the money is from less informed participants who believe "someone knows something" and this adds momentum to the move. There is something important to learn about that money and its associated momentum so make a note of it now. Zen this is often where you are getting caught, along with plenty of others.

Without giving away all of my secrets which have taken years to learn I will ask you to try the following. Take a look at a favourite's price in a market today. Aim for something around the 2.66 - 3.5 range as this will give you a more sensible range of movement overall. If the prices are jumping violently all over the place then forget it and wait for the next one. When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves. You can try and trade it if you want but there is something important you must do. When the market stops and reverses (upper and lower)see if you can spot an indication why it did so. You may have to watch quite a few markets but if you do keep watching it should become apparent and you should then be able to get ready for it next time, BEFORE it happens.

Groovyelms
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:04 pm

Excellent post JG and the associated posts, been rereading alot of your ealier stuff and realizing just how informative and helpfull what you say is..... many thanks... groovy

hh2010
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:55 pm

Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:34 pm

Hi Jollygreen

Very good post. Do you mean when a favourite is ranging between 2 prices in the last 10 minutes? What if the fav is steaming in and doesn't reverse?

Thanks

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:56 pm

hh2010 wrote:Hi Jollygreen

Very good post. Do you mean when a favourite is ranging between 2 prices in the last 10 minutes? What if the fav is steaming in and doesn't reverse?

Thanks
Actually either would apply because you are looking for when the move breaks down.

hh2010
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:55 pm

Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:46 pm

Thanks Jollygreen, I see, does this apply last ten minutes only as I know you trade later out than that?

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:43 pm

hh2010 wrote:Thanks Jollygreen, I see, does this apply last ten minutes only as I know you trade later out than that?
Yes, last 5-10 minutes.

Emmson
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:00 am

Lately been combing this forum with a fine tooth comb looking for valuable insights that can help me crack pre race trading, backwards & forwards, backwards & forwards and did find JollyGreen's top posting here especially intriguing. Some of the discussion on overround in this thread viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&hilit=jollygreen+wom&start=30 had me believing this is what JollyGreen is hinting at but I haven't spotted anything so far when I play back recordings of markets but I'll press on.

One thing I've learned already in pre race trading is averaging down & adding to a losing position is not good strategy when the price moves sharply against you, it can work 6 times in a row or more and then it will kill you.

Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:02 pm

JollyGreen wrote: Without giving away all of my secrets which have taken years to learn I will ask you to try the following. Take a look at a favourite's price in a market today. Aim for something around the 2.66 - 3.5 range as this will give you a more sensible range of movement overall. If the prices are jumping violently all over the place then forget it and wait for the next one. When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves. You can try and trade it if you want but there is something important you must do. When the market stops and reverses (upper and lower)see if you can spot an indication why it did so. You may have to watch quite a few markets but if you do keep watching it should become apparent and you should then be able to get ready for it next time, BEFORE it happens.
I've been on this forum long enough now to know that when JG speaks its in my interests to listen very carefully. This advice was posted a couple of years ago, am I safe to assume its still as viable now as it was back then?

I'm also thinking of getting a software package suck as Camtasia or similar to record things like this, because when things are happening in real time and you only get one chance to see them, its really difficult to spot things that experienced traders see easily.

Did anyone else do something like that and if so did they find it useful?

Emmson
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Tue May 29, 2018 11:09 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:15 am


Without giving away all of my secrets which have taken years to learn I will ask you to try the following. Take a look at a favourite's price in a market today. Aim for something around the 2.66 - 3.5 range as this will give you a more sensible range of movement overall. If the prices are jumping violently all over the place then forget it and wait for the next one. When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves. You can try and trade it if you want but there is something important you must do. When the market stops and reverses (upper and lower)see if you can spot an indication why it did so. You may have to watch quite a few markets but if you do keep watching it should become apparent and you should then be able to get ready for it next time, BEFORE it happens.
Gonna have another crack at working out what this all about. So tantalising, I wonder if it still applies all these years & months later.

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BetScalper
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed May 30, 2018 8:38 am

Emmson wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 11:09 pm
JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:15 am


Without giving away all of my secrets which have taken years to learn I will ask you to try the following. Take a look at a favourite's price in a market today. Aim for something around the 2.66 - 3.5 range as this will give you a more sensible range of movement overall. If the prices are jumping violently all over the place then forget it and wait for the next one. When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves. You can try and trade it if you want but there is something important you must do. When the market stops and reverses (upper and lower)see if you can spot an indication why it did so. You may have to watch quite a few markets but if you do keep watching it should become apparent and you should then be able to get ready for it next time, BEFORE it happens.
Gonna have another crack at working out what this all about. So tantalising, I wonder if it still applies all these years & months later.
He is advising you to trade the favourite within a tight book% based on what the 2nd favourite price is doing.

The easiest was is to pick a race with 2 low priced favourites below 4 and the rest are > 20.

These two will trade like pistons, 1 goes up, the other has to come down and vice versa. As long as the book% remains tight. Don't completely ignore the other runners as 1 might steam in but that would be unusual.

You only need about 10 races a week priced like that to make some serious money, once you have mastered the upper/lower reversals on the top 2.

The beauty of this is it allows to to just concentrate on a select number of races whereby you know how it's going to move 99.9% of the time.

Very little risk unless the mad bomber is about.

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