Market movers - a little guidance.

[ruthlessimon]

These two will trade like pistons, 1 goes up, the other has to come down and vice versa. As long as the book% remains tight. Don't completely ignore the other runners as 1 might steam in but that would be unusual.

A perfectly tight book (at all times) doesn't necessarily make the market easy to trade.

I know Peter & many others actively dislike 1vs1 markets.

[BetScalper]

These two will trade like pistons, 1 goes up, the other has to come down and vice versa. As long as the book% remains tight. Don't completely ignore the other runners as 1 might steam in but that would be unusual.

A perfectly tight book (at all times) doesn't necessarily make the market easy to trade.

I know Peter & many others actively dislike 1vs1 markets.

Each to their own.

There was a whole thread on it going back to 2012 with some excellent contributions from various long timers with allot of knowledge.

They basically gave away allot of unknowns at the time for free.

Which is more than you get on here these days...

[arbitrage16]

These two will trade like pistons, 1 goes up, the other has to come down and vice versa. As long as the book% remains tight. Don't completely ignore the other runners as 1 might steam in but that would be unusual.

A perfectly tight book (at all times) doesn't necessarily make the market easy to trade.

This forum is strange. There is so much insinuation of knowledge and dropping of hints that sometimes I find myself reading into things so I'm curious about your emphasis on easy...in which case, what does a perfectly tight book make it?

[BetScalper]

These two will trade like pistons, 1 goes up, the other has to come down and vice versa. As long as the book% remains tight. Don't completely ignore the other runners as 1 might steam in but that would be unusual.

A perfectly tight book (at all times) doesn't necessarily make the market easy to trade.

This forum is strange. There is so much insinuation of knowledge and dropping of hints that sometimes I find myself reading into things so I'm curious about your emphasis on easy...in which case, what does a perfectly tight book make it?

Back Book% and Lay Book% as close to 100 as possible. Means if 1 fav moves the other will have to move opposite.

However, that doesn't mean you cannot trade them. But its just easier if there's no room in the book.

So, ideally...

- 1st and 2nd Favs priced below 4
- 3rd fav > 20 or more
- Back Book% < 100.5
- Lay Book% > 99.5

In the above scenario something will have to give if one moves and it will be the 1st or 2nd favourite.

You can get some really massive swings up and down.

Most will concentrate on the 1st Fav. If the 2nd Fav starts to drift then back the 1st Fav. Likewise if the 2nd Fav starts to shorten then lay the 1st Fav etc.

This means you only have to worry about trading 1 horse in the race, so you can go bigger stakes and therefore potentially bigger profits.

Giver it a go in practice mode until you can second guess when one is about to move and see how you get on.

Most will do this from 10 to 5 minute mark and others with more knowledge about when the big players will jump in do it from 10 to 30 second mark.

[ruthlessimon]

I'm curious about your emphasis on easy...in which case, what does a perfectly tight book make it?

Let's take two perfectly reflective markets; with trader Bob walking us through how he's trading & reading the correlations:



1. "There goes the 2nd, definitely drifting, time to back the fav - oh what a lovely move, I'm a trading god, this is piss easy!! *posts it on graph of the day*

2. (next market) "There goes the 2nd definitely drifting, time to back the fav. Oh it just pulled back; let's hold it. Thank god I held it. Hmm maybe I shouldn't have held it.. christ that's a deep pullback - time to cut my loss & lay the fav, fav definitely weak now. Shit looks like the 2nd is really weak, time to back the fav again & lay the 2nd - the 2nd is clearly very weak. Holy.. I can't get out down here, I'm really doing my arse here, shit I've gotta get out!!! I swear I'll never do this again (spanks self, puts up a post-it note on the screen)!"

So.. Just because it's correlated doesn't necessarily make it easy!

[BetScalper]

I'm curious about your emphasis on easy...in which case, what does a perfectly tight book make it?

Let's take two perfectly reflective markets; with trader Bob walking us through how he's trading & reading the correlations:



1. "There goes the 2nd, definitely drifting, time to back the fav - oh what a lovely move, I'm a trading god, this is piss easy!! *posts it on graph of the day*

2. (next market) "There goes the 2nd definitely drifting, time to back the fav. Oh it just pulled back; let's hold it. Thank god I held it. Hmm maybe I shouldn't have held it.. christ that's a deep pullback - time to cut my loss & lay the fav, fav definitely weak now. Shit looks like the 2nd is really weak, time to back the fav again & lay the 2nd - the 2nd is clearly very weak. Holy.. I can't get out down here, I'm really doing my arse here, shit I've gotta get out!!! I swear I'll never do this again (spanks self, puts up a post-it note on the screen)!"

So.. Just because it's correlated doesn't necessarily make it easy!

I never said trade EVERY race. Also, its obvious you need to watch how much money is being matched on either side of the back/lay price. That's why just using BA alone its very difficult to FULLY automate unless you integrate to Excel or have a custom bot built etc.

If you enter on your Scenario 2 and the money starts being taken on the other side then you get out with a scratch or 1/2 tick loss and repeat the cycle again.

I did say to use practice mode until you know how the market reacts and what moves the prices.

Its not hard and unless you are confident then you get out before the on-course bookie money starts coming in.

This system has been used since Betfair was invented and still works today.

PS. You use WOM but need to change the weightings from the standard settings as they are no use to anyone with spoofers in the market. They should be 100, 50, 25 and not 34, 33, 33 etc.

[to75ne]

you need to add in volume and confirm with volume. if you know where the volume is going, your more often than not will know which way the price is likely to go.

[ruthlessimon]

- 1st and 2nd Favs priced below 4
- 3rd fav > 20 or more

Only looked at April so far. But this setup alone only occurred on 2/500(ish) markets. & graphing one of them looked kinda similar to my example. Someone following your criteria has a real decision to make during the pullback of the 1st market.

[BetScalper]

- 1st and 2nd Favs priced below 4
- 3rd fav > 20 or more

Only looked at April so far. But this setup alone only occurred on 2/500(ish) markets. & graphing one of them looked kinda similar to my example. Someone following your criteria has a real decision to make during the pullback of the 1st market.

The setup only occurs 2 out of 500 times ? I think you have totally misunderstood.

But why don't you offer something yourself to the newcomers ? Thought not.

There are potentially these races today after a quick scan that will probably fit the bill around 10 mins before the off. At least 2 of them will, maybe more.

- 14:00 Hamilton 5f Nov Stks
- 14:10 Lingfield 1m3f Mdn Stks
- 14:50 Wolverhampton 5f Claim Stk
- 17:50 Fairyhouse 1m2f Claim Stks
- 18:00 Ffos Las 2m Nov Hrd
- 18:10 Chelmsford City 6f Nov Stk
- 19:20 Fairyhouse 6f Mdn
- 19:40 Chelmsford City 1m Hcap
- 20:00 Ffos Las 2m Sell Hrd
- 20:10 Chelmsford City 1m2f Nov S

[Bluesky]

I know Peter & many others actively dislike 1vs1 markets.

I agree, I find 1 vs 1 markets very tough to trade and usually will not get involved. Most newbies are going to lose money trying to trade 1 vs 1. Far better to try and find 2 or 3 vs 1 type trades, they don't come up ever race but if you are patient then you can do well with this type.

[ruthlessimon]

But why don't you offer something yourself to the newcomers ? Thought not.

I was reading my posts back, & that thought did strike me

I just think it's important people be aware that "perfect piston motion" alone, is in no way a guarantee of a "straightforward" market. Speaking personally, I try to acquire statistics which supplement it - which protects me from those nasty races (i.e. above).

From what I believe, the trade seems very similar to a video of mugsgame's from a while back. So an example of a supplemental statistic, would be the following: "If the 2nd breaks 4.0 (given x, y, z), the median low is 3.65, the median low time is 01:26." Suddenly that's quite powerful information that can be used alongside the "piston motion". Offering exits at the optimal price, or be set up for the reversal etc. However, I struggle to combine all these many "snippets of info" into an overarching methodology. It can become very mushed, very confusing, & simply untradable.

But that was my personal read on this quote:

When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves.

[BetScalper]

But why don't you offer something yourself to the newcomers ? Thought not.

I was reading my posts back, & that thought did strike me

I just think it's important people be aware that "perfect piston motion" alone, is in no way a guarantee of a "straightforward" market. Speaking personally, I try to acquire statistics which supplement it - which protects me from those nasty races (i.e. above).

From what I believe, the trade seems very similar to a video of mugsgame's from a while back. So an example of a supplemental statistic, would be the following: "If the 2nd breaks 4.0 (given x, y, z), the median low is 3.65, the median low time is 01:26." Suddenly that's quite powerful information that can be used alongside the "piston motion". Offering exits at the optimal price, or be set up for the reversal etc. However, I struggle to combine all these many "snippets of info" into an overarching methodology. It can become very mushed, very confusing, & simply untradable.

But that was my personal read on this quote:

When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves.

What I do is use BA/Guardian to enter trades based on the following logic for those types of races I mentioned previously:

- Minimum matched volume > 100k
- Back book% < 101
- Lay book% > 99
- BTL trade where WOM (100,50,25) < 33
- LTB trade where WOM (100,50,25) > 66

Only one trade open at a time. Then I will manually look to exit as there are things which BA can't do without using excel etc.

It works for me but obviously may not work for others. People are free to ignore, modify or expand upon it based on their own market analysis.

- If I have a BTL trade open and the WOM (100,50,25) > 50 then I will usually exit.

- If I have a LTB trade open and the WOM (100,50,25) <
50 then I will usually exit.

[JollyGreen]

I was chatting online to Peter today and that prompted me to have a scan of the forum. This came up on my notifications so I thought I would try and offer some more advice.

Whilst the mention of a tight book is correct, it can also be very misleading for the new trader. In the current markets, most books by their very nature are efficient (tight) so do not get yourself too wrapped up in that. I am not dismissing this as correct, I am merely saying it happens naturally in most markets. The key is to wait for the true money flow which is usually when the preceding race finishes and players turn their attention to the next race. When you get more experience you get to spot temporary or false moves which can be so infuriating. This will come with experience...arrrgghhh...not that old chestnut I hear you cry! Wait, it's not that bad!! I find the first 2-3 markets of the day to be the hardest, some days it takes more , some days it feels like I can walk on water! So what am I looking for.

I keep an eye on the money flowing into the market, I want a decent sustained flow, not a sudden spurt which dies out!
The trick is to watch the early races closely to see when players are getting involved, each day can differ so the more you practice the easier you learn the timing
I am not worried about jumping in for fear of missing out, the losses have taught me it doesn't work long term
Keep an eye on the timing and the amount, I use a 500ms refresh and I want at least £700/second. Anything above is great and anything below is risky! As you get better at spotting the money, so you get better at getting in and then out when you realise it's a spurt and you could be looking at a false move.

I see a lot of traders who jump on an early trend and fail to recognise the false money flow. They assume it will continue and by the time they realise it's gone pear shaped they are in a loss. They then get stressed and their brain doesn't allow them to think rationally. I know I have done it so I am sure plenty of others have too! It is compounded by getting a few correct which creates a false sense of security. You think surely you must have cracked it only for it to kick you in the nuts a few times more and put you in a loss.

If you post questions I will try and answer as best I can.

JG

[BetScalper]

I was chatting online to Peter today and that prompted me to have a scan of the forum. This came up on my notifications so I thought I would try and offer some more advice.

Whilst the mention of a tight book is correct, it can also be very misleading for the new trader. In the current markets, most books by their very nature are efficient (tight) so do not get yourself too wrapped up in that. I am not dismissing this as correct, I am merely saying it happens naturally in most markets. The key is to wait for the true money flow which is usually when the preceding race finishes and players turn their attention to the next race. When you get more experience you get to spot temporary or false moves which can be so infuriating. This will come with experience...arrrgghhh...not that old chestnut I hear you cry! Wait, it's not that bad!! I find the first 2-3 markets of the day to be the hardest, some days it takes more , some days it feels like I can walk on water! So what am I looking for.

I keep an eye on the money flowing into the market, I want a decent sustained flow, not a sudden spurt which dies out!
The trick is to watch the early races closely to see when players are getting involved, each day can differ so the more you practice the easier you learn the timing
I am not worried about jumping in for fear of missing out, the losses have taught me it doesn't work long term
Keep an eye on the timing and the amount, I use a 500ms refresh and I want at least £700/second. Anything above is great and anything below is risky! As you get better at spotting the money, so you get better at getting in and then out when you realise it's a spurt and you could be looking at a false move.

I see a lot of traders who jump on an early trend and fail to recognise the false money flow. They assume it will continue and by the time they realise it's gone pear shaped they are in a loss. They then get stressed and their brain doesn't allow them to think rationally. I know I have done it so I am sure plenty of others have too! It is compounded by getting a few correct which creates a false sense of security. You think surely you must have cracked it only for it to kick you in the nuts a few times more and put you in a loss.

If you post questions I will try and answer as best I can.

JG

Hi,

1. Any reason why you don't use a faster refresh rate or have streaming turned on ?
2. Do you take into account the current back/lay amounts on offer, like > x amount ?
3. Do you enter at the reverse prices or jump in front ?
4. Do you use hard stops or just close once the trend/money flow is over ?
5. Do you look at charts or pure money flows based on the ladder ?

Thanks,

[Korattt]

good to see you posting again JG