Trading Horse racing : Market movers - a little guidance.

The sport of kings.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 1352
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Thu May 31, 2018 2:51 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 7:39 am
But why don't you offer something yourself to the newcomers ? Thought not.
I was reading my posts back, & that thought did strike me ;)

I just think it's important people be aware that "perfect piston motion" alone, is in no way a guarantee of a "straightforward" market. Speaking personally, I try to acquire statistics which supplement it - which protects me from those nasty races (i.e. above).

From what I believe, the trade seems very similar to a video of mugsgame's from a while back. So an example of a supplemental statistic, would be the following: "If the 2nd breaks 4.0 (given x, y, z), the median low is 3.65, the median low time is 01:26." Suddenly that's quite powerful information that can be used alongside the "piston motion". Offering exits at the optimal price, or be set up for the reversal etc. However, I struggle to combine all these many "snippets of info" into an overarching methodology. It can become very mushed, very confusing, & simply untradable.

But that was my personal read on this quote:
JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:15 am
When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves.

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Thu May 31, 2018 3:28 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 2:51 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 7:39 am
But why don't you offer something yourself to the newcomers ? Thought not.
I was reading my posts back, & that thought did strike me ;)

I just think it's important people be aware that "perfect piston motion" alone, is in no way a guarantee of a "straightforward" market. Speaking personally, I try to acquire statistics which supplement it - which protects me from those nasty races (i.e. above).

From what I believe, the trade seems very similar to a video of mugsgame's from a while back. So an example of a supplemental statistic, would be the following: "If the 2nd breaks 4.0 (given x, y, z), the median low is 3.65, the median low time is 01:26." Suddenly that's quite powerful information that can be used alongside the "piston motion". Offering exits at the optimal price, or be set up for the reversal etc. However, I struggle to combine all these many "snippets of info" into an overarching methodology. It can become very mushed, very confusing, & simply untradable.

But that was my personal read on this quote:
JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:15 am
When you get the market make a note of how it moves and just pay attention to the range within which it moves.
What I do is use BA/Guardian to enter trades based on the following logic for those types of races I mentioned previously:

- Minimum matched volume > 100k
- Back book% < 101
- Lay book% > 99
- BTL trade where WOM (100,50,25) < 33
- LTB trade where WOM (100,50,25) > 66

Only one trade open at a time. Then I will manually look to exit as there are things which BA can't do without using excel etc.

It works for me but obviously may not work for others. People are free to ignore, modify or expand upon it based on their own market analysis.

- If I have a BTL trade open and the WOM (100,50,25) > 50 then I will usually exit.

- If I have a LTB trade open and the WOM (100,50,25) <
50 then I will usually exit.

User avatar
JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:34 pm

I was chatting online to Peter today and that prompted me to have a scan of the forum. This came up on my notifications so I thought I would try and offer some more advice.

Whilst the mention of a tight book is correct, it can also be very misleading for the new trader. In the current markets, most books by their very nature are efficient (tight) so do not get yourself too wrapped up in that. I am not dismissing this as correct, I am merely saying it happens naturally in most markets. The key is to wait for the true money flow which is usually when the preceding race finishes and players turn their attention to the next race. When you get more experience you get to spot temporary or false moves which can be so infuriating. This will come with experience...arrrgghhh...not that old chestnut I hear you cry! Wait, it's not that bad!! I find the first 2-3 markets of the day to be the hardest, some days it takes more , some days it feels like I can walk on water! So what am I looking for.

I keep an eye on the money flowing into the market, I want a decent sustained flow, not a sudden spurt which dies out!
The trick is to watch the early races closely to see when players are getting involved, each day can differ so the more you practice the easier you learn the timing
I am not worried about jumping in for fear of missing out, the losses have taught me it doesn't work long term
Keep an eye on the timing and the amount, I use a 500ms refresh and I want at least £700/second. Anything above is great and anything below is risky! As you get better at spotting the money, so you get better at getting in and then out when you realise it's a spurt and you could be looking at a false move.

I see a lot of traders who jump on an early trend and fail to recognise the false money flow. They assume it will continue and by the time they realise it's gone pear shaped they are in a loss. They then get stressed and their brain doesn't allow them to think rationally. I know I have done it so I am sure plenty of others have too! It is compounded by getting a few correct which creates a false sense of security. You think surely you must have cracked it only for it to kick you in the nuts a few times more and put you in a loss.

If you post questions I will try and answer as best I can.

JG

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:49 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:34 pm
I was chatting online to Peter today and that prompted me to have a scan of the forum. This came up on my notifications so I thought I would try and offer some more advice.

Whilst the mention of a tight book is correct, it can also be very misleading for the new trader. In the current markets, most books by their very nature are efficient (tight) so do not get yourself too wrapped up in that. I am not dismissing this as correct, I am merely saying it happens naturally in most markets. The key is to wait for the true money flow which is usually when the preceding race finishes and players turn their attention to the next race. When you get more experience you get to spot temporary or false moves which can be so infuriating. This will come with experience...arrrgghhh...not that old chestnut I hear you cry! Wait, it's not that bad!! I find the first 2-3 markets of the day to be the hardest, some days it takes more , some days it feels like I can walk on water! So what am I looking for.

I keep an eye on the money flowing into the market, I want a decent sustained flow, not a sudden spurt which dies out!
The trick is to watch the early races closely to see when players are getting involved, each day can differ so the more you practice the easier you learn the timing
I am not worried about jumping in for fear of missing out, the losses have taught me it doesn't work long term
Keep an eye on the timing and the amount, I use a 500ms refresh and I want at least £700/second. Anything above is great and anything below is risky! As you get better at spotting the money, so you get better at getting in and then out when you realise it's a spurt and you could be looking at a false move.

I see a lot of traders who jump on an early trend and fail to recognise the false money flow. They assume it will continue and by the time they realise it's gone pear shaped they are in a loss. They then get stressed and their brain doesn't allow them to think rationally. I know I have done it so I am sure plenty of others have too! It is compounded by getting a few correct which creates a false sense of security. You think surely you must have cracked it only for it to kick you in the nuts a few times more and put you in a loss.

If you post questions I will try and answer as best I can.

JG
Hi,

1. Any reason why you don't use a faster refresh rate or have streaming turned on ?
2. Do you take into account the current back/lay amounts on offer, like > x amount ?
3. Do you enter at the reverse prices or jump in front ?
4. Do you use hard stops or just close once the trend/money flow is over ?
5. Do you look at charts or pure money flows based on the ladder ?

Thanks,

User avatar
Korattt
Posts: 1324
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:15 pm

good to see you posting again JG

User avatar
JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:23 pm

I will try my best to answer

1. Any reason why you don't use a faster refresh rate or have streaming turned on ?

I have streaming on but I firmly believe less is more. If you have a fast refresh rate, there is more chance you will be shaken out of a market by looking at a sudden short term move which then levels off and turns out to be temporary. I know people use faster rates but I cannot see the advantage or make it work for me in pre-race trading. Each to their own I guess but if you are trying to get a better grasp of the markets I urge you to try 500ms and improve your skills.

2. Do you take into account the current back/lay amounts on offer, like > x amount ?

Good question. I like to play devils advocate and always take the initial view the amounts could be false. I just watch how much actually trades and if it stays available I reassess. If it gets withdrawn then my assumption was correct. So let's say there is £5000 on the lay price and I think a steam is likely. I will check the graph for a trend and then check how the 2nd fav is trading, 3rd fav etc. If they are looking negative then I may consider the £5000 as a stopper which is likely to be withdrawn. I will try and get a match above that amount but if the £5000 is getting smashed I may take some of it myself.

3. Do you enter at the reverse prices or jump in front ?

As above it depends how I see the money, I am not afraid to jump in but I need to be as certain as I can that the move is coming. If I am wrong and trust me I do get it wrong I just accept it and get out. I do not sit there saying "it will work out" I admit I was wrong and I take the small loss. One important thing! If you are correct then you must squeeze as much as possible from the trade. If my loss is going to be 2-3 ticks then I want a minimum of 5 ticks when I get it correct. It is too hard to work on tighter profit/loss ratios.


4. Do you use hard stops or just close once the trend/money flow is over ?

I never use stops, I always close manually. This requires discipline so if you are struggling in that area then use a stop. Remember what I said above. There is no point stopping out at 3 if your profit is only 3. You need a 1:2 ratio to help build confidence and long term profits.


5. Do you look at charts or pure money flows based on the ladder ?

>90% I am looking at the ladder, I can gauge most things from that. Once again, I believe less is more. Some people love charts and a complex layout but I find it all too much and find myself distracted. The money is king and once you can see it you have a much better chance of finding the move.

HTH

JG

User avatar
JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:28 pm

Korattt wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:15 pm
good to see you posting again JG
Thank you but it will not be on a regular basis.

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:34 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:23 pm
I will try my best to answer

1. Any reason why you don't use a faster refresh rate or have streaming turned on ?

I have streaming on but I firmly believe less is more. If you have a fast refresh rate, there is more chance you will be shaken out of a market by looking at a sudden short term move which then levels off and turns out to be temporary. I know people use faster rates but I cannot see the advantage or make it work for me in pre-race trading. Each to their own I guess but if you are trying to get a better grasp of the markets I urge you to try 500ms and improve your skills.

2. Do you take into account the current back/lay amounts on offer, like > x amount ?

Good question. I like to play devils advocate and always take the initial view the amounts could be false. I just watch how much actually trades and if it stays available I reassess. If it gets withdrawn then my assumption was correct. So let's say there is £5000 on the lay price and I think a steam is likely. I will check the graph for a trend and then check how the 2nd fav is trading, 3rd fav etc. If they are looking negative then I may consider the £5000 as a stopper which is likely to be withdrawn. I will try and get a match above that amount but if the £5000 is getting smashed I may take some of it myself.

3. Do you enter at the reverse prices or jump in front ?

As above it depends how I see the money, I am not afraid to jump in but I need to be as certain as I can that the move is coming. If I am wrong and trust me I do get it wrong I just accept it and get out. I do not sit there saying "it will work out" I admit I was wrong and I take the small loss. One important thing! If you are correct then you must squeeze as much as possible from the trade. If my loss is going to be 2-3 ticks then I want a minimum of 5 ticks when I get it correct. It is too hard to work on tighter profit/loss ratios.


4. Do you use hard stops or just close once the trend/money flow is over ?

I never use stops, I always close manually. This requires discipline so if you are struggling in that area then use a stop. Remember what I said above. There is no point stopping out at 3 if your profit is only 3. You need a 1:2 ratio to help build confidence and long term profits.


5. Do you look at charts or pure money flows based on the ladder ?

>90% I am looking at the ladder, I can gauge most things from that. Once again, I believe less is more. Some people love charts and a complex layout but I find it all too much and find myself distracted. The money is king and once you can see it you have a much better chance of finding the move.

HTH

JG
Many thanks for taking the time to reply. Greatly appreciated!!!

A couple more, if you don't mind. :)

6. Do you automate any of your trading or purely rely on your eyes to gauge what is or about to happen ?

7. Do you think spoof money operates at the front of the queue and not just on the outer columns, this could be one reason why sometimes I get caught out on my trades, I see > £2000 at the front, jump in front, the money either gets taken or withdrawn and then I get a price reversal ?

Cheers,

User avatar
JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:05 pm

Many thanks for taking the time to reply. Greatly appreciated!!!

A couple more, if you don't mind. :)

6. Do you automate any of your trading or purely rely on your eyes to gauge what is or about to happen ?

I've tried automation and can never get it to work pre-race. I just rely on my eyes.

7. Do you think spoof money operates at the front of the queue and not just on the outer columns, this could be one reason why sometimes I get caught out on my trades, I see > £2000 at the front, jump in front, the money either gets taken or withdrawn and then I get a price reversal ?

It can exist at the front of the queue but you can never be 100% certain it is spoof. I generally look at the trend and then ask myself "why would someone sensibly be placing money there?" If it looks suspicious I may take the view it will disappear and so I chance my arm. Obviously I am not saying always do this as it changes but you do get better at spotting it. If I am unsure then I abstain, watch and wait. I may not get it right on that trade but I should learn from it and prevent a loss which is always good.

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:28 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:05 pm
Many thanks for taking the time to reply. Greatly appreciated!!!

A couple more, if you don't mind. :)

6. Do you automate any of your trading or purely rely on your eyes to gauge what is or about to happen ?

I've tried automation and can never get it to work pre-race. I just rely on my eyes.

7. Do you think spoof money operates at the front of the queue and not just on the outer columns, this could be one reason why sometimes I get caught out on my trades, I see > £2000 at the front, jump in front, the money either gets taken or withdrawn and then I get a price reversal ?

It can exist at the front of the queue but you can never be 100% certain it is spoof. I generally look at the trend and then ask myself "why would someone sensibly be placing money there?" If it looks suspicious I may take the view it will disappear and so I chance my arm. Obviously I am not saying always do this as it changes but you do get better at spotting it. If I am unsure then I abstain, watch and wait. I may not get it right on that trade but I should learn from it and prevent a loss which is always good.
Great insights!!

Once again, many thanks. :)

Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: gallyn and 3 guests