What are people's thoughts on backing or laying a horse in the morning based on the number of tips it has received in the press, in the expectation that the price will steam or drift depending on how many papers have backed it?
Thanks
Jeff
Long-term trading
-
thechubbster
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:39 pm
Hi all, first time poster here so be gentle with me lol
I looked into this during the summer as I noticed that all tipsters normally show a net loss over time, even those who pick a fair amount of winners. I came to the conclusion that it must be the prices coming in which in turn effects there overall profits. Not that tipsters are any good of course, but of course if theres a movment in the market, we can make money from it
I monitored the situation for few days, and in seemed that indeed there was a shortening of prices for those horses which were backed by well known tipsters (those in the sun, mirror etc). Maybe it's because the mug punters who just want a bet and don't understand form will just pop in the bookies and stick there £5 on what the newspaper tells them too.
One problem I could see was getting a nice early price for a decent amount on betfair. I thought about getting up early each morning before work, seeing what the tipsters were backing then placing my bets and look to lay them off during the day using my mobile. However I got a new job which took lots of my time and forgot all about the idea until you just mentioned it.
Like Ferru I would be very interested to know peoples thoughts about this, and indeed what other factors could be used to help identify reliable swing trades. Also i've noticed that champion jockeys normally show a net loss to starting price. Could this also be because they get back in on the market?
Take care all, and have a great Christmas
I looked into this during the summer as I noticed that all tipsters normally show a net loss over time, even those who pick a fair amount of winners. I came to the conclusion that it must be the prices coming in which in turn effects there overall profits. Not that tipsters are any good of course, but of course if theres a movment in the market, we can make money from it
I monitored the situation for few days, and in seemed that indeed there was a shortening of prices for those horses which were backed by well known tipsters (those in the sun, mirror etc). Maybe it's because the mug punters who just want a bet and don't understand form will just pop in the bookies and stick there £5 on what the newspaper tells them too.
One problem I could see was getting a nice early price for a decent amount on betfair. I thought about getting up early each morning before work, seeing what the tipsters were backing then placing my bets and look to lay them off during the day using my mobile. However I got a new job which took lots of my time and forgot all about the idea until you just mentioned it.
Like Ferru I would be very interested to know peoples thoughts about this, and indeed what other factors could be used to help identify reliable swing trades. Also i've noticed that champion jockeys normally show a net loss to starting price. Could this also be because they get back in on the market?
Take care all, and have a great Christmas
Hi The Chubster
Interesting post, thanks.
I had considered using a similar strategy myself. I think the main challenge is to work out where to put the stoploss. If it's too far from your entry point, you risk losing a fair chunk of your bank. But if it's too close, then you risk having your bet closed due to normal volatility, even though the market goes in the direction you predicted it will.
Jeff
Interesting post, thanks.
I had considered using a similar strategy myself. I think the main challenge is to work out where to put the stoploss. If it's too far from your entry point, you risk losing a fair chunk of your bank. But if it's too close, then you risk having your bet closed due to normal volatility, even though the market goes in the direction you predicted it will.
Jeff
Go here:
http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk/
and the newspaper selections are directly to the right of 'Next Six Races'. Just click on the appropriate course.
Nigel.
http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk/
and the newspaper selections are directly to the right of 'Next Six Races'. Just click on the appropriate course.
Nigel.