Lay the Draw Guardian Automation Bot for Football

[Dallas]

Its to do with the way the odds will move, ideally you want equally matched teams but with a expectation of goals.

If you had a strong fav the draw odds would be high to begin with so it becomes a risky lay to start with, and if the underdog score first the odds will either rise or change very little as the outcome of a draw becomes more and not less likely as you would be expecting the fav to at least equalizie.

So with evenly matched teams the odds will drop no matter who scores and the number of ticks it shortens will be about the same

Thanks Dallas, I really appreciate the time you took to give me such a full reply....as always.

I just noticed i wrote it completly backwards.... I'll blame it on the last nights/early starts of Aus open

It should of been; the draw odds will likely shorten or barely move if the underdog scores

And with evenly matched teams the odds will drift a similar amount no matter who scores.

Im sure you got what i ment but just in case someone reads it in future and its a bit confussing

[ShaunWhite]

I just noticed i wrote it completly backwards.... I'll blame it on the last nights/early starts of Aus open

As bad as each other.... i've just realised the thread was about the draw, and I was talking about nil-nil.

[sauzer02]

Hi Dallas, how can I do so that the bot works after the kick off, when The Draw reaches a certain odds, which are different for each match.
I dont need GreenUp
Sorry for my Inglese !!

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas, how can I do so that the bot works after the kick off, when The Draw reaches a certain odds, which are different for each match.
I dont need GreenUp
Sorry for my Inglese !!

Do you mean lay after K.O at different odds each match?

If so on the 'Parameters' tab you can input any odds you want to place the lay at (you'll need to do this every match or save several copies of the rule with different lay values used) and then on the 'General' tab charger the arm time till after event has gone in play

[sauzer02]

Ty Dallas !!

[ashmansam]

Can anyone tell me how I would put a stop loss on at the 70th minute to green/red up if no goals have been scored

[Dallas]

Can anyone tell me how I would put a stop loss on at the 70th minute to green/red up if no goals have been scored

Click the green plus icon and add the following rule type

Green all selections
Arm 01:27:00 after event goes in play (this is approx you might want to adjust these slightly)
Till 01:29:00 after event goes in play (this is approx you might want to adjust these slightly)
Trigger 3 times / re-arm 10 secs

[ashmansam]

Thanks Dallas - if a goal was then scored after though would that then effect the rule?

[Dallas]

Thanks Dallas - if a goal was then scored after though would that then effect the rule?

No, once you've greened up their is nothing for the other rule to do so it doesn't which comes first - goal or 70th minute

[bevsy]

Hi Dallas

how would i setup LTD as an inplay and have it select when the odds are below 3. If there were 4 games all kicking off at the same time could it do them all with no problems?

Many thanks

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas

how would i setup LTD as an inplay and have it select when the odds are below 3. If there were 4 games all kicking off at the same time could it do them all with no problems?

Many thanks

You just need to change the times the rule is armed on the general tab of the rules editor the add the following condition
Fixed odds Condition
Selections
'Lay' price
Is 'Less' than 3

[bevsy]

Still having problems with this one. doesnt seem to be going inplay? so it wont select the LTD at under 3 for some reason and when it does i managed a 4p green? all i want is to LTD at under 3 if that means inplay fine and then green when a goal is scored?

[Dallas]

Still having problems with this one. doesnt seem to be going inplay? so it wont select the LTD at under 3 for some reason and when it does i managed a 4p green? all i want is to LTD at under 3 if that means inplay fine and then green when a goal is scored?

Betfair dont turn all football markets in-play so you need to ensure that the ones your applying it to allow in-play betting.
If they do and you have changed the times and added the conditions detailed in my last post then it will work

[jonnyg]

I have been looking at the draw from a different angle in terms of how the time of the opening goal effects expectation of a draw as time decays by looking at individual leagues >

for example >

2015-2016 in games in League 2 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 14% ended a draw , ditto 2016-2017

you should be looking at how the time of the opening goal effects expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis in an individual league > you will find that you can build have a very sophisticated lay the draw / back the draw model in leagues < you need to also focus on 0-1 1-0 HT goal 0-20 and 1-1 HT added to the early goal metric in terms of expectation or lack of expectation of a draw >

the icing on the cake is what I describe as the " fightback metric " < games where 1-0 HT , 0-1 HT added to the 2nd half fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > how does the fightback metric in an individual league effect expectation of further goal(s) production >

and on top of that you should be aware that it is the early goal metric that will produce a higher % of goal(s) 80 + then in games with no early goal metric >

[jonnyg]

Last 70 games in the Russian 1st Division where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT

8-6 -56



so a quick explanation of why lowered expectation of a draw > it is all around the concept of survival analysis < because in this profile in the Russian 1st given the first half events < lowered expectation of the home team fighting back > 0-2 will be far more common then > 1-1 and as a result lowered expectation of a draw <

you just need to repeat this for every other league that interests you >