You just need to change the times the rule is armed on the general tab of the rules editor the add the following condition
Fixed odds Condition
Selections
'Lay' price
Is 'Less' than 3
Lay the Draw Guardian Automation Bot for Football
Still having problems with this one. doesnt seem to be going inplay? so it wont select the LTD at under 3 for some reason and when it does i managed a 4p green? all i want is to LTD at under 3 if that means inplay fine and then green when a goal is scored?
Betfair dont turn all football markets in-play so you need to ensure that the ones your applying it to allow in-play betting.
If they do and you have changed the times and added the conditions detailed in my last post then it will work
I have been looking at the draw from a different angle in terms of how the time of the opening goal effects expectation of a draw as time decays by looking at individual leagues >
for example >
2015-2016 in games in League 2 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 14% ended a draw , ditto 2016-2017
you should be looking at how the time of the opening goal effects expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis in an individual league > you will find that you can build have a very sophisticated lay the draw / back the draw model in leagues < you need to also focus on 0-1 1-0 HT goal 0-20 and 1-1 HT added to the early goal metric in terms of expectation or lack of expectation of a draw >
the icing on the cake is what I describe as the " fightback metric " < games where 1-0 HT , 0-1 HT added to the 2nd half fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > how does the fightback metric in an individual league effect expectation of further goal(s) production >
and on top of that you should be aware that it is the early goal metric that will produce a higher % of goal(s) 80 + then in games with no early goal metric >
for example >
2015-2016 in games in League 2 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 14% ended a draw , ditto 2016-2017
you should be looking at how the time of the opening goal effects expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis in an individual league > you will find that you can build have a very sophisticated lay the draw / back the draw model in leagues < you need to also focus on 0-1 1-0 HT goal 0-20 and 1-1 HT added to the early goal metric in terms of expectation or lack of expectation of a draw >
the icing on the cake is what I describe as the " fightback metric " < games where 1-0 HT , 0-1 HT added to the 2nd half fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > how does the fightback metric in an individual league effect expectation of further goal(s) production >
and on top of that you should be aware that it is the early goal metric that will produce a higher % of goal(s) 80 + then in games with no early goal metric >
Last 70 games in the Russian 1st Division where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT
8-6
-56
so a quick explanation of why lowered expectation of a draw > it is all around the concept of survival analysis < because in this profile in the Russian 1st given the first half events < lowered expectation of the home team fighting back > 0-2 will be far more common then > 1-1 and as a result lowered expectation of a draw <
you just need to repeat this for every other league that interests you >
8-6
-56so a quick explanation of why lowered expectation of a draw > it is all around the concept of survival analysis < because in this profile in the Russian 1st given the first half events < lowered expectation of the home team fighting back > 0-2 will be far more common then > 1-1 and as a result lowered expectation of a draw <
you just need to repeat this for every other league that interests you >
If you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !
make a very interesting point < I have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <Tenable wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:00 amIf you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
I know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.jonnyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:45 pmI have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target
Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:04 pmI know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.jonnyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:45 pmI have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <
the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >
if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target
Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target > that would be irrelevant if you bet in play / trade in play around the events that occur
but YES I am interested in the thought that people predict goals to a high accuracy in a game before it starts at a consistent level
I would assume in terms of strategy if they think a game will have a high goal production then they back goals
if you are going to advise that they look at the expected goal totals re the chance creation in historical games then I would be surprised if they are making long term profits having seen this strategy in action >
Yes it is, you would just need to change the lay bet to be armed at HT and from being applied to Betfair row 3 to Betfair row 1then add a 'Fixed odds condition' and specify the max price
swansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT
that is already 6 games >
bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht
7 games
I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins
apologies < when it comes to football data < I am very anal <
Last edited by jonnyg on Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
deansaccount
- Posts: 120
- Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 5:19 pm
So the criteria is..jonnyg wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:51 pmswansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT
that is already 6 games >
bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht
7 games
I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins
apologies < when it comes to football data < I am avery anal <
* away team scored in first 20 mins
* score 0-1 at half time.
only 7 out of those 92 games resulted in away team win?
So lay away team or lay current score?
