Correct Score Lay Bet

[karl78]

Hi all,

I have an idea for a potential lay bet.

I have done a bit of studying and found that most games that have a goal within the first 15 minutes of a game rarely finishes 1-0.

The reason being is that once a goal is scored it tends to open the game up, I know it doesn't always happen, for example if an underdog scores early then they may want to park the bus to get a result but I feel that the odds on 1-0 once a goal is scored in the first 15 minutes can be anything but I feel it is a decent lay regardless of the odds.

I am not the greatest at setting these things up, bit of a newbie here on Bet Angel but I have been in the betting industry for over 20 years so I do get this to a certain degree.

Anyway.... If someone can help me set this up or give advice to how to do it then I would be most grateful.

I would like it where if a goal is scored within 15 minutes then the rule kicks in, if the game is 0-0 at 15 minutes then the rule doesn't apply and nothing happens.

I suppose it is pretty simple to set up, I do need to do a bit more research and tweaks but this is an idea I have had for a few days.

Thanks

Karl

[Dallas]

There's some handy links here to get you started on automation
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=11396

If you view the second link in that post it will guide you through the steps of actually creating a rule, then when it comes to creating your you need to select

General
Rule Type; Place a lay bet
Armed 00:00:30 till 00:15:00 in-play (best to allow a few seconds for things to settle after KO)
Applied to Betfair row index 5 (1-0 is always in row 5)
Trigger 1 time

Parameters
Place at 3rd best price (this will ensure you get matched)
Stake enter whatever you want

Once thats done and saved click the icon with two green arrows at the top of the rules editor window to duplicate the whole rule
On the new one go onto the General tab and just change the selection its applied to
Applied to Betfair row index 2 (0-1 is always in row 2)

Save the rule and apply it to the markets

[karl78]

Thanks Dallas,

That is superb, one further questions though.....

Does the rules that you have given me kick in once the game reaches 1-0 at any time between kick off and 15 minute in? I don't want to be laying 1-0 at kick off.

Thanks for the link, I have already looked into it but need to study a bit more.

Thanks

Karl

[Dallas]

Sorry no it doesn't I must have miss read that part in your OP (been a long and busy day).

So scratch the above and thinking about it if laying after a goal (if it occurs within the 1st 15mins) it would be easier to lay the unders of the O/U1.5 market

So you would have just the one rule set up as below and applied to the O/U1.5 market

General
Rule Type; Place a lay bet
Armed 00:00:30 till 00:15:00 in-play (best to allow a few seconds for things to settle after KO)
Applied to Betfair row index 1 (unders is always in row 1)
Trigger 1 time

Parameters
Place at 3rd best price (this will ensure you get matched)
Stake enter whatever you want

Conditions
Historical Relative odds condition
Back price now
is greater
than Back price
70 sec's ago
Plus 25 ticks

Time since unsuspended condition
Is greater than 65 secs ago

The conditions are whats testing for a goal, the lay bet can only trigger IF the unders odds are now more than 25 ticks higher than they were 70 secs ago - this movement in price will only occur if a goal has been scored
The time since condition just tells the lay bet to wait 65 secs to allow the market chance to reform before it triggers

[karl78]

Amazing, thanks for this.

I will test this out.

Cheers

Karl

[karl78]

So, something went a bit wrong.

Not too much on choice testing this out but tried it on a Brazilian match tonight, Guarani U20 v Figeurense U20.

The bet triggered but the game was 0-0 at the time, the game had over 2 goals to which the first was scored after half time but was unsure why it happened.

Here is the log:

17/01/2019 21:16:00: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
17/01/2019 21:16:00: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 21:16:06: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 21:16:42: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
17/01/2019 21:18:18: [G_Auto] : £ 100.00 Lay bet placed on Under 1.5 Goals at 5.2. Fully matched at 5. Ref: 10027
17/01/2019 22:21:00: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:01: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:04: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:04: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:08: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:09: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:11: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:12: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:13: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:14: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:17: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:18: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
17/01/2019 22:21:25: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
17/01/2019 22:21:26: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspen

Maybe something to do with the ticks? I have attached the file.

Thanks

Karl

[Dallas]

You've set it up right, it's likely to do with it being a illiquid game (not much money being matched)
If there are big gaps between the prices and people are putting odd speculative bets in and out here and there it could cause it to trigger.

If you run it on a more liquid game were there's very few if any gaps between the back and lay prices it should be fine

If you want to use on low liquidity games you could try changing the Historical relative odds condition from looking at the back prices to looking at the last traded price, that should reduce the false triggers, you may still have to tweak the ticks too maybe up it to 30-35

[karl78]

Superb, thanks for you help.

Karl

[karl78]

Have been thinking about this for most of the day.

Instead of laying under 1.5, it would probably be best to back the over 1.5 odds if the first goal scored is within the first 15 minutes.

This way makes a bit more sense to me as I find it a lot more simple.

Just been watching the Lille v Amiens game, currently it is 1-1 and is half time and with Amiens scoring in the 6th minute it meant my bet would of triggered and then completed as a winner. When it was 1-0, the odds on over 1.5 goals in the game was floating between 1.09 & 1.13. I would be looking to gain 12% on each win so for a £100 stake I will profit £12.

I have been looking into the parameters and conditions of the previous file and cannot understand how to switch this around to what I want, but I will keep trying. So, if there is a goal in the first 15 minutes, I would be looking to back over 1.5 goals in the game at odds of minimum of 1.12 (or if possible, anything higher).

Any help, I would be most grateful here. After a few studies I have noticed that the Premier League this season has had 67 games where there has been a goal in the first 15 minutes of the game, only 2 of these games have ended up finishing 1-0 so I think there is a few quid to be made here and there.

Effectively, this means If I placed £100 on everyone of those games then 65 games make me £12 each = £741 (after commission) with two blow outs of £100 each = £200 - making a profit of £541! Not bad at all and that is just one league!

Anyway, I am sure this can be done and I am trying to learn how but any help here I would be most grateful.

Thanks

Karl

[MemphisFlash]

why don't you think about laying the under 1.5 first half goals
at beginning of match, then greening out for 10% profit after 10 mins or so?

[karl78]

Certainly something I will consider but will look into the stats at a later date.

Thanks anyway.

Karl

[MemphisFlash]

have a look at cgmbet software. great for footy

[Dallas]

Have been thinking about this for most of the day.

Instead of laying under 1.5, it would probably be best to back the over 1.5 odds if the first goal scored is within the first 15 minutes.

I have been looking into the parameters and conditions of the previous file and cannot understand how to switch this around to what I want, but I will keep trying. So, if there is a goal in the first 15 minutes, I would be looking to back over 1.5 goals in the game at odds of minimum of 1.12 (or if possible, anything higher).

Anyway, I am sure this can be done and I am trying to learn how but any help here I would be most grateful.

Thanks

Karl

On the general tab just change the rule type to 'place a back bet'
and the applies to 'Betfair row index 2'

thats all it should need, just make sure the 'Historical relative odds condition' is still testing for the price in row 1 to be higher now than it was whatever seconds ago

[karl78]

Thanks,

I will give it a try

Much appreciated.

Karl

[karl78]

Hi Dallas,

So i have created the following attachment.

Once again, I am not sure if what I have done is correct. I have been up until the early hours trying to figure out what I should be doing and reading endless things within the academy and you tube videos.

But what I want is the following:

When a goal is scored in within the first 15 minutes then the suspension will kick in, once the suspension is over and the odds have re-arranged itself then I am looking to back over 1.5 goals at the best possible price. I am hoping that I can get on 1.12 but this may not always happen. If the odds wanted are not available then I want to wait 30 seconds to then get whatever the best market price is, if it is 1.05 then so be it.

I would however like to put a condition in so that if better odds are available then to take them (obviously).

I do need to look further into this, it could take me weeks, even months to get this strategy up and running, any more advice would be handy as I am running out of my trial period.

Anyway, I do appreciate your help and advice here but really want to spend today studying trying to set this up.

Thanks

Karl