Stop at 80% loss

[Dallas]

It wont matter if you open with a back or lay it will place the opposing bet required when that loss value is reached

[ruthlessimon]

Thanks but i'm not sure I full understand what you mean.

Typically, looking at my picks horses that hit 80% tend to go on and win meaning i'm circa 20% better off that if i let the horse run.

From Memphis's tone I imagined he thought your strategy was edgeless (i.e. better to give him your money!) - which if so, didn't make sense as to why he'd disagree with an 80% stop. Where the stoploss is placed on an edgeless strat is irrelevant - the probabilities will naturally adjust to maintain the 0 expectancy (if you're consistent).

The one thing I would say, because I've been guilty of this. Looking through the MAE of various strategies - & picking the stop that would have worked best on that data set. That kind of optimization can cause real problems, because as we know, past performance is not indicative of future performance (who's to say in 2 more weeks a 10 tick stop would've been the most optimal). I think a stop loss needs real thought, above just a fixed %/tick amount - but that's me

[BigJ]

Thanks but i'm not sure I full understand what you mean.

Typically, looking at my picks horses that hit 80% tend to go on and win meaning i'm circa 20% better off that if i let the horse run.

From Memphis's tone I imagined he thought your strategy was edgeless (i.e. better to give him your money!) - which if so, didn't make sense as to why he'd disagree with an 80% stop. Where the stoploss is placed on an edgeless strat is irrelevant - the probabilities will naturally adjust to maintain the 0 expectancy (if you're consistent).

The one thing I would say, because I've been guilty of this. Looking through the MAE of various strategies - & picking the stop that would have worked best on that data set. That kind of optimization can cause real problems, because as we know, past performance is not indicative of future performance (who's to say in 2 more weeks a 10 tick stop would've been the most optimal). I think a stop loss needs real thought, above just a fixed %/tick amount - but that's me

Thanks and I totally agree with you. My stop loss is of 80% is semi-random based on my feeling rather than stats, but I just need something so I can comfortably leave the bot. Will keep an eye on it of course and will do more research on stop losses. My current edge is very good and it's working for now...."this time next year Rodney"