Stop at 80% loss

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 6033
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:10 am

BigJ wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:57 pm
Hi

I'm looking to put a stop loss in at 80% loss on my lay selections. I want to automate it for all races / selections but i'm not sure which rule type and condition to use.

Also could I run a rule along side the above this to lay selection at a certain price?

Thanks
Assuming your backing for £10

You just need to add a rule type 'Green all Selections' and add the following condition
Green All Profit Condition
Is Less than -£8 (or adjust that amount depending on the stake so that your triggering the rule at 80% of it)

Set that to trigger 3 times armed every 3 secs

If your backing more than one runner its the same principal as above but this time use
Rule type - Close trade on selection with greening
Condition - Close trade profit condition with greening

BigJ
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Dallas wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:10 am
BigJ wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:57 pm
Hi

I'm looking to put a stop loss in at 80% loss on my lay selections. I want to automate it for all races / selections but i'm not sure which rule type and condition to use.

Also could I run a rule along side the above this to lay selection at a certain price?

Thanks
Assuming your backing for £10

You just need to add a rule type 'Green all Selections' and add the following condition
Green All Profit Condition
Is Less than -£8 (or adjust that amount depending on the stake so that your triggering the rule at 80% of it)

Set that to trigger 3 times armed every 3 secs

If your backing more than one runner its the same principal as above but this time use
Rule type - Close trade on selection with greening
Condition - Close trade profit condition with greening
Thanks Dallas as always super helpful.

BigJ
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Dallas wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:10 am
BigJ wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:57 pm
Hi

I'm looking to put a stop loss in at 80% loss on my lay selections. I want to automate it for all races / selections but i'm not sure which rule type and condition to use.

Also could I run a rule along side the above this to lay selection at a certain price?

Thanks
Assuming your backing for £10

You just need to add a rule type 'Green all Selections' and add the following condition
Green All Profit Condition
Is Less than -£8 (or adjust that amount depending on the stake so that your triggering the rule at 80% of it)

Set that to trigger 3 times armed every 3 secs

If your backing more than one runner its the same principal as above but this time use
Rule type - Close trade on selection with greening
Condition - Close trade profit condition with greening
Thanks Dallas as always super helpful.

BigJ
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:12 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:33 pm
MemphisFlash wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:17 pm
80% seriously, why don't you give me your money instead!!!!
So long as the laying is consistent, a tiny stop wouldn't make any difference to a huge one. The probabilities will just naturally adjust to maintain the 0 expectancy
Thanks but i'm not sure I full understand what you mean. I'm currently in profit for the past 3 months using a successful lay strategy but doing it manually. Have back tested the strategy using 4 years worth of data and is been very profitable. I've been playing with stop losses and an 80% stop loss has been working for me, but in all honesty it was a guestimate / trial so I don't know if it's the sweetest spot to place it. Typically, looking at my picks horses that hit 80% tend to go on and win meaning i'm circa 20% better off that if i let the horse run. Like I say it's a guestimate and would definitely tweak it if I was advised of a better place to put it. Is more accurate on longer races.

Having a stop loss works for me I just need to automate it

BigJ
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:15 pm

BigJ wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:59 pm
Dallas wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:10 am
BigJ wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:57 pm
Hi

I'm looking to put a stop loss in at 80% loss on my lay selections. I want to automate it for all races / selections but i'm not sure which rule type and condition to use.

Also could I run a rule along side the above this to lay selection at a certain price?

Thanks
Assuming your backing for £10

You just need to add a rule type 'Green all Selections' and add the following condition
Green All Profit Condition
Is Less than -£8 (or adjust that amount depending on the stake so that your triggering the rule at 80% of it)

Set that to trigger 3 times armed every 3 secs

If your backing more than one runner its the same principal as above but this time use
Rule type - Close trade on selection with greening
Condition - Close trade profit condition with greening
Thanks Dallas as always super helpful.
assuming I can just apply the same on the lay side?

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 6033
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:32 pm

It wont matter if you open with a back or lay it will place the opposing bet required when that loss value is reached

User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 722
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:13 pm

BigJ wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:12 pm
Thanks but i'm not sure I full understand what you mean.

Typically, looking at my picks horses that hit 80% tend to go on and win meaning i'm circa 20% better off that if i let the horse run.
From Memphis's tone I imagined he thought your strategy was edgeless (i.e. better to give him your money!) - which if so, didn't make sense as to why he'd disagree with an 80% stop. Where the stoploss is placed on an edgeless strat is irrelevant - the probabilities will naturally adjust to maintain the 0 expectancy (if you're consistent).

The one thing I would say, because I've been guilty of this. Looking through the MAE of various strategies - & picking the stop that would have worked best on that data set. That kind of optimization can cause real problems, because as we know, past performance is not indicative of future performance (who's to say in 2 more weeks a 10 tick stop would've been the most optimal). I think a stop loss needs real thought, above just a fixed %/tick amount - but that's me :)

BigJ
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:34 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:13 pm
BigJ wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:12 pm
Thanks but i'm not sure I full understand what you mean.

Typically, looking at my picks horses that hit 80% tend to go on and win meaning i'm circa 20% better off that if i let the horse run.
From Memphis's tone I imagined he thought your strategy was edgeless (i.e. better to give him your money!) - which if so, didn't make sense as to why he'd disagree with an 80% stop. Where the stoploss is placed on an edgeless strat is irrelevant - the probabilities will naturally adjust to maintain the 0 expectancy (if you're consistent).

The one thing I would say, because I've been guilty of this. Looking through the MAE of various strategies - & picking the stop that would have worked best on that data set. That kind of optimization can cause real problems, because as we know, past performance is not indicative of future performance (who's to say in 2 more weeks a 10 tick stop would've been the most optimal). I think a stop loss needs real thought, above just a fixed %/tick amount - but that's me :)
Thanks and I totally agree with you. My stop loss is of 80% is semi-random based on my feeling rather than stats, but I just need something so I can comfortably leave the bot. Will keep an eye on it of course and will do more research on stop losses. My current edge is very good and it's working for now...."this time next year Rodney" :)

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