Create a Free Bet on the Fav Guardian Automation Bot

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Dallas
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This is a basic Guardian automation bot for use on Horse Racing markets.

The bot places a £10 Back bet at post time on the fav with a offset lay 20 ticks lower - If this lay is matched during the race you have created a risk free no lose bet and a profit if the Fav goes on to win.

To use the file just click on the Create free bet on fav.Baf attachment link below and this will download it to your computer, then with guardian open on the "Automation" tab click "Import a Rules File" as shown in the image, once imported it will now appear in the drop down box just above, you can now apply it to any markets you have added into guardian.

The stake size and number of offset ticks used can be edited very easily by clicking on "Edit Rules File" then click on the "Parameters" tab.

Additional parts/conditions can also be added or removed from the bot as you build it into your own bespoke automation file

With any automation bot always run in practice mode first to ensure everything is working fine, and repeat this each time you make any changes.

To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g
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PeterLe
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Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Ive been reading some whitepapers produced by Bill Benter recently and this moring I found another academic text which suggested that the time of day and more logically (to me anyway) the number of runners affects the likelyhood of a fav winning..
(its not something I do), but I just though that if someone were to use this BOT created by Dallas, they may combine/experimemt it with a condition for less than a certain number of runners too?
Just a thought
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convoysur-2
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

interesting
peter have you a link to this stuff please ?
Marc
PeterLe
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Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

yep, copy this into Google search and the PDF is a few links down.

"Mata F, Watts S. Analyzing the placement odds of favourite horses in the thoroughbred racing industry of the British Isles"

(PS Im not sure how accurate it is, im just trying to build my own model, so data gathering etc)
convoysur-2
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PeterLe wrote:yep, copy this into Google search and the PDF is a few links down.

"Mata F, Watts S. Analyzing the placement odds of favourite horses in the thoroughbred racing industry of the British Isles"

(PS Im not sure how accurate it is, im just trying to build my own model, so data gathering etc)
i think that proform would be a big help with that ,in the first photo you will see at the bottom left the fate of favourites for this type of race in this case its 25%
now you can filter that down further by looking at the running style of the horse in photo 2 in this case we see the IV of a hold up horse in this type of race is Iv .42
where as a horse that leads is IV 1.72
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betingonly
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:24 pm

Hi,

New user here and using this automation today. It worked on all but one race. The race it didn't work, no lay bet was matched.

I'd like to know what would cause this and if reducing the tick size would affect this positively/negatively.

Equally, without sounding dumb - why is the tick size 20?
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Dallas
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betingonly wrote:Hi,

New user here and using this automation today. It worked on all but one race. The race it didn't work, no lay bet was matched.

I'd like to know what would cause this and if reducing the tick size would affect this positively/negatively.

Equally, without sounding dumb - why is the tick size 20?
It would happen if the odds of the fav did not shorten enough in-running to have your lay matched, the tick amount used was just a random round number just to give users a starting point, you can change this amount to anything you like the higher the number the bigger the profit on the winner but this will reduce the chances of getting the lays matched, the lower the number will increase the amount of times the lay is matched but also lower the profits of any winners
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betingonly
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Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:24 pm

Hi Dallas,

Thank you for that reply, appreciated.

When you say shorten the ticks, if I was to change the tick size from 20 to 15, is that classed as shortening? Equally, by changing to 15, would that mean less/more profit?

Appreciate any help. Thank you.
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Dallas
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Yes that's right, lowering the number of ticks will lower any profit but increases the chances of successfully getting the lay matched.

You can check the Timeform site to find the in-play low a horse traded at
http://www.timeform.com/free/
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betingonly
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:24 pm

Hi,

That's great thank you. I will take a look at the link.

I am new to this, however been interested in Bet Angel and exchanges for about 6 months - I came from the 'matched betting' world.

I have a starting bank of £200 and want to ideally, make £1-£2 a race and cover 15 races a day to make £30 a day. I've found the non-UK races don't seem to work as well with this bot as the UK ones, so I'll stick to UK and aim for £30 a day.

On the whole, this bot does look capable of doing just this.

Thanks,
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Dallas
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This bot as with all the other ones i create for the automation library
viewtopic.php?f=43&t=11238

are not guranteed to make a profit especially if applied to all races just as they are - they are there for users like yourself who are new to trading or even experienced traders that have not yet tried the automation feature of Bet Angel to use as a starting block which can then be developed further by the user as they add there own ideas to build into their own unique stratergy.
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betingonly
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:24 pm

Hi,

Thank you, really pleased you've taken the time out to make the rules and also help people like myself.

As mentioned, my goal is to make £1-£2 a race / £30 a day and the automation options of Bet Angel look like they could do just that.

This one seems ideal for the horses; I just need to find something useful for the greyhound ;)

Thanks
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Hi betingonly,
As Dallas says you can't use a one fits all strategy, but there's a number of free or inexpensive, or expensive resources to try find your best suited categories.

I'm a big fan of horseracebase.com for cost and ease of use, once you get your head around it. Below is a snip of Betfair Favs from 2006-present day, and the race type winning percentage with a minimum of 100 races.

When you change around parameters like the Betfair Fav, and track, the Fav winning percentage can vary from low 40s% to around 25%, so you can get an idea what your chances are of having your offset bet matched if the Fav has run well to be in with a shout at the business end of things.

Taking into account PeterLe's comment about time of meeting, you could filter further by morning/day/evening, and see how the Favs chances stand statistically of finishing in or thereabouts at the end.

Convoysur is correct too, Proform can be a big help with things like if a horse runs prominently, led, held up etc and it's implied value. Also Proform can export to a spreadsheet previous races details like in-running high or lows for horses so you can see if there appears to be a good chance based on previous runnings (if the sample size is large enough) Large enough is about as long as a piece of string!
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betingonly
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:24 pm

Hi,

Thank you for the kind reply and info. I will take a look at the website. What should I be looking for on the website and equally, what's they key information for this [free bet bot].

I played with the bot this evening, adjusting a few things and I made in total £14 from 4 races, which was good. I shall continue to practice trade until I've seen more evidence and understanding.

Either way, I shall remain cautious and stay within my bank. As mentioned, I have £200 and looking to make £1-£2 a race on the horses. In BA, when I trade on foreign races it goes doesn't sync as well. One moment it 30 seconds from the off, then it's suspended and then the race is finished... There is no trading activity or 'in play' notification like the UK ones.
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Dublin_Flyer
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Hi again betinglonly,
Regarding the website, it's as much as you make of it to be honest, with a little digging around you'll find your own personal aspects you find interesting, whereas others might not.

There's aspects like in summer flat racing at Chester and Beverley where the low draw has a significant advantage, so your lay after backing bet on the fav stands a good chance of getting matched as it's a high percentage win chance if drawn low.

The foreign racing I'm not sure about, I think only a few go in-play so you need to be certain the race goes in-play before anything else! Vast majority of forum racing users seem to use UK/IRE/AUS racing as far as I'm aware.
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