Football Data (CSV, JSON) - UPDATED 16/08/17

[Dallas]

So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.

I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.

For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%

When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%

[deansaccount]

So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.

I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.

For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%

When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%

So in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?

[Dallas]

So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.

I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.

For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%

When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%

So in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?

Not in the way Jonnyg is suggesting.

ie, 50 goals have been scored by the home team on the 8th min, the home team goes onto win 25 of them games therefore the odds of the home team following a opening goal on 8mins should be 2.0 = survival analysis

[deansaccount]

So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.

I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.

For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%

When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%

So in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?

Not in the way Jonnyg is suggesting.

ie, 50 goals have been scored by the home team on the 8th min, the home team goes onto win 25 of them games therefore the odds of the home team following a opening goal on 8mins should be 2.0 = survival analysis

Thanks for the info Dallas. Do you trade football often?

[Dallas]

Thanks for the info Dallas. Do you trade football often?

I do but only the main European leagues, but its still Horse racing and Tennis that get my main focus

[LinusP]

I have come to a similar conclusion (so far) but to give him credit he has given me the kick to look into football.

[Dallas]

Y, TBF to Jonnyg his posts have prompted some interest in 'goal timings' and even if just one person finds something of use they can use then that's another positive

[jonnyg]

I have certainly raised the football data abad analytical bar > as far as I am aware I am the only entity to offer in play early goal data and analysis which is at a very high level > if I say so myself

in terms of survival analysis > certainly not my fault as I have explained this many times < I can see that people have struggled to understand what I am saying < so one more time for this thread >

I discovered that the betting industry do not understand survival analysis which is looking at how a team in an individual league hold onto their advantage < the mainstream believe that a team that concede are more likely to score more goals ... you can check the research via google >

I found this is incorrect and you need to look at individual leagues >

in terms of the Premier league and early home goal < Dallas talks about starting prices but has failed to understand 2 key areas >

1. my focus is on survival analysis in terms of expatiation of the pathway `< will it go to 1-1 ? > 2-0 ? or stick on 1-0 ??

the starting price is the red herring which is a key point < so for example when Burnley opened the scoring at home to Liverpool > early home goal < we had Liverpool at favs to beat Burnley and Liverpool at around 2/5 to score goal 2 < in my in play commentary i advised why > 2-0 would be just as likely >

2. is a massive key point which very few people have grasped >

expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league as time decays <

which can weaken the perceived strength of a team > for example have a look at Man City away when losing 1-0 HT game state < have a chronic historical record


if you advise that survival analysis does not exist > you would need to detail what you understanding is of survival analysis >


naturally people do have a different interpretation of football data but my in play analysis is so strong that my ideas and analysis has become very difficult to brush aside

[jonnyg]

So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.

I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.

For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%

When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%

will post some data in a moment to show you where you have gone wrong >

what price were Burnley to beat Liverpool before the game started ? and what price were liverpool when Burnley opened the scoring ?????

[jonnyg]

in summary

dont listen to me or Dallas or anyone else on here > get started with your own research < forget automating your betting / trading till you have found some strategies that give you an interest and an edge >

I can say with 100% expectation that randomly backing / laying the draw < backing a further goal on 80 in a random game , backing the draw in a game that is 1-0 HT when a team winning is Evens - 5/2

is not going to get you anywhere >

i am aware that accrington last 28 home games in league 2 when opening the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and

22-2-4 < this is not enough for me < I discovered that a draw in league 2 is very rare when the home team open the scoring 0-10 < still not enough < I then look at why that would be >>>>>>>>>>

best of luck >

[jonnyg]

here is a beautiful example of why you should not focus on starting prices ,

have a look at Man City away when conceding an early goal and also when losing 1-0 HT game state away

[jonnyg]

dallas just deleted what were very strong points

[spreadbetting]

I'd imagine he was just > cleaning up the thread of > unneccessary > data > You don't have to post reams of data to get your point across >

[weemac]

Despite considerable exasperation at jonnyg hijacking every single football thread with his ideology, I do think there is validity to his ideas. This despite the fact that surely if Barcelona play Stenhousemuir and concede within 10 or 20 minutes, I still expect them to win 14-1. Hence starting prices surely do have some bearing on the matter in question.

Anyway, could I respectfully suggest that jonnyg start a new thread which is to be dedicated entirely to this topic, rather than swamping every other thread with what does indeed appear to be a valid argument?

[Dallas]

dallas just deleted what were very strong points

Try the previous page, all your 'points' are still there - only the copy and pasted blog posts have gone

As everyone keeps pointing out to you or reporting directly no one wants to see every thread clogged with material copy and pasted from your blog. Share your view but respect other users and the forum.