How to know if a strategy works with data?

Post Reply
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

Hello,

I have in mind some strategies to try, but I would like to know if they would have worked in the past to know if they are good for the future.

I would like to know how to use the files Betfair's Historic Data or something similar to know if my ideas will work. Because there are so much events in the past and the lucky factor is avoid.

Any idea? Because I don't know how to use this types of files, are so strange when I open in excel or similar programs.

Thank you in advance. :)
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

The 'free' excel Betfair data files only contain so much info so it depends what is your trying to 'backtest' as to if it's even possible.

But you're going to need to provide some idea of what you're looking so someone can point you in the right direction
User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

To add to Dallas' comment...if you don't feel, you know just yet - exactly - what you're looking for, and how to approach it, then the long way around is to just go nuts looking back at previous threads on here. That could even give you questions you didn't know, you had, because some of the guys have been at it for ages.

Too many to mention who's posted good stuff on here, but if I were to mention one, then look out for a lot of the stuff RuthlessSimon posts here and there.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

Completely agree with that, RuthlessSimon posts would be a great place to start. Think of an idea first you'd like to explore then work out the variables. Next, get a logger spreadsheet from the shared area and capture your variables in hundred and hundreds of markets. Whilst you spend a few weeks doing that, you have time to work out how to arrange/analysis/interpret that info. That's the stage I'm at now.
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

Thank you for your help.

But I cannot find nothing about RuthlessSimon?

I now I have been more time off, and now I am coming back, may I am lost.

Sorry...
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17215

He commented a few times in this thread I started, gave me plenty to think about which may benefit you. Inside the thread, click on his username and you can search through posts of his from there.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

No offence to Ruthless but at the time of those posts he hadn’t actually placed any bets (may/hopefully has changed)

Have a search through Peters blog for creating strategies and PeterLe threads on strategy creation.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

That was just me speaking my mind on that thread. Most of the time I was 'provoking thought' rather than offering analysis techniques.

& I think the one time I did offer a "technique" - was enough to spark rumours of "secret sauce spillage" late in that thread. I'm sure ShaunWhite's glad people think that thread is irrelevant - the cleanup musta been a success :)

Yah the stuff (edges found regarding that thread) still work to this day, problem is, it'll take yr's (at their current efficiency) to make (what I would consider) a decent income - something I moaned about on the thread.

I simply get bored having to execute slim edges/infrequent edges - & without having a process to cure some of the needless inefficiencies (i.e. enhancements, without harming the winners); still frustrates me daily!
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

PW's stuff is obviously good but most people have watched/read all of that already so out of the other users PeterLe is a great shout. Regardless of his own confidence, Simon has some fantastic ideas and the way he crunches data (as queried by the OP) makes him a great user to start with imo.

+ him and ShaunWhite spilled some secret sauce which has been making me £50k a day ;)

Like I said though, think of an idea yourself first, plan your data gathering, do it, organise it with pivot tables and SQL databases if you have A LOT and then work out how to crunch the numbers. One thing that thread showed me is nobody will directly give the best way to do this as how you dice the data is where you find your own edges. Have faith in what you decide as nobody else may have done it quite that way.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:56 pm
& I think the one time I did offer a "technique" - was enough to spark rumours of "secret sauce spillage" late in that thread. I'm sure ShaunWhite's glad people think that thread is irrelevant - the cleanup musta been a success :)
I'm sure the clean up was more of a sucess than the "technique" otherwise Shaun would have littered the forum with pnl shots like Memphis and Oliver :)
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:40 pm
I'm sure the clean up was more of a sucess than the "technique" otherwise Shaun would have littered the forum with pnl shots like Memphis and Oliver :)
:D

Obviously he's too modest to do that ;)

It is a sucky edge for sure, but that was my whole purpose for posting on that thread - I was looking for techniques designed to help improve it - without destroying it. Hence why I got kinda bored/frustrated seeing "just trade it with real money".

I was looking for snippets like: "play the market back at x20 speed"

OMG A LEAK 8-)
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:40 pm
I'm sure the clean up was more of a sucess than the "technique" otherwise Shaun would have littered the forum with pnl shots like Memphis and Oliver :)
LOL you're right about which was most successful but posting PLs isn't my style, and tbf they wouldn't be very impressive.

Callum, glad to hear you're making a few quid from something I said, can you pm me and say how you're doing it :)
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

PM'd you Shaun
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

One of those nag spots that I haven't got a clue how to take further. although I'm not entirely comfortable explaining the variables ;)

Dafaq was so special about mid-July & mid-Aug :?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:21 pm
Dafaq was so special about mid-July & mid-Aug :?
World Cup was a distraction for many
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair Data”