second half goalless?

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Nathane30
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Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:07 am

just wondering if anyone has any info on the number of matches where there is no goal in the second half?
thanks in advance
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

key point > why would you want that information ? >


the reason why I ask is because expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score and it would be worthless to look at a sample that had no goals in the 2nd half because you would need to identify each game in terms of the events that occurred in the first half = time of the opening goal > if it did occur and the half time game state ( half time score )


heads up > have a look at games that are 0-0 HT in terms of expectation or lack of expectation of a 2nd half goal > you can use shot data ( expected goal totals ) to profile games that end 0-0 in an individual league
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jonnyg
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another major key point > as time decays in a game of football more and more goals are scored >


https://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/siamstude ... t_Talk.pdf < will show you the graph >
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

About 22% of matches have no goal in the second half. English leagues.
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jonnyg
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I will give the exact data BUT consider the data will be useless as a trading / betting tool >


Premier League 0-0 HT 08-09-15-16 > 27% ended 0-0 FT > so 27% did not produce a goal in the 2nd half

1-0 HT > 21% did not produce a 2nd half goal

0-1 HT > 21% did not produce a 2nd half goal

1-1 HT > 23% did not produce a 2nd half goal

2-0 Ht 21% did not produce a 2nd half goal



remember > you should consider how the time of the opening goal effects accuracy as time decays
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jonnyg
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Posted on: December 21st, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark
In the tables below I have added the last 60 games in Bundesliga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 and 0-1 half time and 21-HT and 0-1 HT

In the sample of games where there was an early away goal metric , 50% ended over 2.5 goals compared to 43% in the sample that did not produce an early away goal metric

The away teams won 72% in the early goal sample compared to 68% in the sample that did not produce an early goal

Summary

How does the time of the opening goal added to the half time GAME STATE effect accuracy as time decays in the second half in an individual league ?

T HT FT
Monch Wolf 3 0 1 1 2
leverkusen Hoff 15 0 1 0 3
Augsburg Mainz 7 0 1 1 3
ingo Hertha 8 0 1 0 2
Wolf Augsburg 1 0 1 0 2
Stuttgart Leverkusen 11 0 1 0 2
Koln Bayern 10 0 1 0 1
Eintracht Ingo 8 0 1 1 1
leverkusen Bremen 5 0 1 1 4
Hannover Augsburg 14 0 1 0 1
Augsburg Bayern 15 0 1 1 3
Ingo Augsburg 14 0 1 2 1
Koln Dortmund 18 0 1 2 1
Hamburg Mainz 16 0 1 1 3
Ingo Darm 9 0 1 3 1
Ingo Hertha 11 0 1 0 1
Mainz Dortmund 18 0 1 0 2
Dortmund Darm 17 0 1 2 2
Darm Bayern 20 0 1 0 3
leverkusen Darm 8 0 1 0 1
Schalke Darm 9 0 1 1 1
Hannover Leverkusen 18 0 1 0 1
Mainz Leverkusen 15 0 1 2 3
Hamburg Wolf 10 0 1 0 2
Augsburg Leverkusen 8 0 1 2 2
Hertha Freiburg 14 0 1 0 2
Dortmund Mainz 1 0 1 4 2
Freiburg Dortmund 9 0 1 0 3
Pad Hamburg 2 0 1 0 3
Freiburg Eintracht 1 0 1 4 1
Pad Freiburg 18 0 1 1 1
Hannover Monch 14 0 1 0 3
Freiburg Wolf 8 0 1 1 2
Koln Bayern 19 0 1 0 2
Stuttgart Hoff 15 0 1 0 2
Bremen Hoff 19 0 1 1 1
Schalke Bayern 10 0 1 1 1
Dortmund Leverkusen 1 0 1 0 2
Nurnberg Hannover 5 0 1 0 2
Freiburg Schalke 13 0 1 0 2
Stuttgart Wolf 13 0 1 1 2
Freiburg Monch 10 0 1 4 2
Bayern Dortmund 20 0 1 0 3
Monch Stuttgart 12 0 1 1 1
Nurnberg Moch 17 0 1 0 2
Wolfsburg Eintracht 11 0 1 2 1
Augsburg Leverkusen 11 0 1 1 3
Bremen Monch 6 0 1 1 1
nurnberg Bayern 18 0 1 0 2
Monch Bayern 7 0 1 0 2
Branus Hertha 20 0 1 0 2
Hamburg Augsburg 18 0 1 0 1
Dortmund Leverkusen 18 0 1 0 1
Hoff Hertha 13 0 1 2 3
Schalke Dortmund 14 0 1 1 3
Nurnberg Hamburg 17 0 1 0 5
Hertha Mainz 7 0 1 3 1
Eintracht Bayern 13 0 1 0 1
Freiburg Schalke 20 0 1 1 2
Duss Dortmund 20 0 1 1 2

T HT FT
Dortmund Augsburg 33 0 1 1 1
Leverkusen Ingo 26 0 1 1 2
Hertha Bremen 41 0 1 0 1
Darm Hamburg 30 0 1 0 2
Leverkusen Freiburg 30 0 1 1 1
Freiburg Wolf 41 0 1 0 3
Hamburg Eintracht 35 0 1 0 3
Ingo Eintracht 45 0 1 0 2
Freiburg Monch 35 0 1 3 1
Augsburg Wolf 35 0 1 0 2
Darm Monch 31 0 1 0 2
Hamburg Darm 38 0 1 1 2
Stuttgart Bayern 31 0 1 1 3
Hannover Koln 43 0 1 0 2
Darm Dortmund 38 0 1 0 2
Bayern Mainz 26 0 1 1 2
Hannover Wolf 36 0 1 0 4
Augsburg Monch 33 0 1 2 2
Dortmund Hoff 33 0 1 3 1
Koln Hertha 43 0 1 0 1
Bayern Darm 26 0 1 3 1
Hoff Darm 33 0 1 0 2
Hamburg Koln 41 0 1 1 1
Hannover Mainz 24 0 1 0 1
Darm Schalke 43 0 1 0 2
Eintracht Wolf 25 0 1 3 2
Monch Dortmund 41 0 1 1 3
Hamburg Bayern 37 0 1 1 2
Hannover Bayern 40 0 1 0 1
Wolfsburg Hamburg 21 0 1 1 1
Eintracht Darm 30 0 1 0 1
Wolfsburg Dortmund 32 0 1 1 2
Darm Hamburg 29 0 1 1 1
Hannover Hertha 33 0 1 1 3
Schalke Ingo 39 0 1 1 1
Koln Hannover 38 0 1 0 1
Bremen Munich 23 0 1 0 1
Schalke Koln 45 0 1 0 3
Bremen Leverkusen 31 0 1 0 3
Bayern Wolf 26 0 1 5 1
Hoff Bremen 45 0 1 1 3
Bayern Augsburg 43 0 1 2 1
Monch Mainz 42 0 1 1 2
Eintracht Augsburg 23 0 1 1 1
Bremen Schalke 34 0 1 0 3
Hamburg Freiburg 25 0 1 1 1
Mainz Hamburg 37 0 1 1 2
Hoff Bayern 38 0 1 0 2
Dortmund Bayern 36 0 1 0 1
Bayern Monch 30 0 1 0 2
Schalke Leverkusen 35 0 1 0 1
Koln Bremen 27 0 1 1 1
Augsburg Mainz 32 0 1 0 2
Freiburg Bremen 35 0 1 0 1
Mainz Monch 27 0 1 2 2
Stuttgart Munich 41 0 1 0 2
Leverkusen Eintracht 37 0 1 1 1
Hamburg Stuttgart 42 0 1 0 1
Hertha Bayern 27 0 1 0 1
Augsburg Hamburg 45 0 1 3 1
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