When the draw is the Outsider!

[firlandsfarm]

This one has always left me baffled. Let's assume TeamA is stronger than TeamB so TeamA is the favourite in a match odds market. But what about the Draw ... it is logical that the Draw should lie between the odds for TeamA and TeamB and usually it does but not always. Why is it that sometimes the market sees the weaker team as having a better chance of winning than a draw? Surely getting a draw must be easier for the weaker team than winning. Take for example Sunderland v. Bournemouth this weekend. The current odds are (as at 10:34 Friday)

Home: 3.10/3.20
Draw: 3.65/3.70
Away: 2.42/2.44

Why is it seen that Sunderland stand a better chance of winning than drawing?

[Euler]

A draw is no good for Sunderland, they must win to have any remote chance of staying up

[firlandsfarm]

I understand that Euler but the odds are a function of their chances not their wishes! That match did not cause me to ask the question, it was just a current example. This can happen at any time of the year including August when every team wants to win! As a different example Arsenal v Liverpool on 14th August this season (season opening game for both teams)

B365: 2.40/3.50/3.10
Lads: 2.38/3.40/3.10
WillHill: 2.50/3.10/3.00
Victor: 2.40/3.50/3.10

(I don't have BF history for football)

And as another one this weekend ... West Brom/Leicester ... 2.74/3.40/2.90.

Trust me, it happens often and all through the year. You may be right over the Sunderland/Bournemouth game but what about all the others? I haven't updated my PL data since the Tottenham/Chelsea game on 04/01/17 but including that game there were 200 matches in the PL and in 48 of those the Draw was the outsider! One game here and there fair enough but 25% of games suggests a more defined reason of some kind is out there.

[Naffman]

Sometimes it can happen when both teams tend to score a lot and don't have much emphasis on defence, which is exactly what happened on that first game of the season. Same with Leicester, they struggle to keep a clean sheet so the odds reflect that they need to outscore the opponent to get something from it

At least thats how I interpret it haha.

[Euler]

From a mathematical perspective, the closer number of goals gets to 3 the less chance there is of a draw.

[firlandsfarm]

That makes sense Naffman ... lots of goals means more chance of there being a non-draw And yes Euler, if the expectation is 3 goals then less chance or a draw ... I'll cross reference occasions of "the Draw is the outsider" with correct score and number of goals market to keep an eye on it.

Thanks for your input guys, it's got me thinking.

[LeTiss]

Part of it is supply & demand too.

I remember back in the days of settling bets for Ladbrokes - I'd have hundreds of football coupons on a Saturday to settle, and you could count on one hand the number of bets that included a draw.

[firlandsfarm]

Part of it is supply & demand too.

I remember back in the days of settling bets for Ladbrokes - I'd have hundreds of football coupons on a Saturday to settle, and you could count on one hand the number of bets that included a draw.

Good point Tiss having not seen behind the counter at a bookmaker, maybe the longer odds are to attract money in an attempt to balance their book? And the arbitragers will make sure Betfair will follow their lead.