Are you looking for a sophisticated in play lay/back the draw strategy ?

[jonnyg]

You will often hear commentators claim that teams are more vulnerable to conceding a goal just after they have scored themselves. True or false?

Peter Ayton and Anna Braennberg tested the validity of this belief. They did so by considering matches across two seasons in the English Premier League that ended in 1-1 draws (this, they reasoned, shows that ‘each team was capable of scoring against the other’). There were 127 such instances during the 1994-95 and 1995-96 campaigns. (Myths and Facts about Football: The Economics and Psychology of the World’s Greatest Sport (2008). )

In the table below I have added the last 74 games in the Premier League which ended 1-1 full time and 21% produced a response ( T+1 ) up to 10 minutes after the opening goal and it would be easy to conclude that a team that open the scoring are not vulnerable to a quick response in general if you do not understand that it is in general the early goal games around the globe that will produce the highest percentage of quick responses ( fightbacks )

Since last season in the Premier League in games that ended 1-1 full time , the home team opened the scoring in 47% and the away teams opened the scoring in 53% and i would think it would be acceptable to argue that in games that end 1-1 in the Premier League , there will be no home or away bias .

In the table below the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band in 16% and it is known that the early away goal metric in the Premier League will result in expectation of acceleration of goal production in general so it would be acceptable to conclude that a low percentage of early away goal games in the Premier League will end 1-1 .

It is also known in the Premier league that the opening goal by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band and the 11-20 minutes time and expectation in general of acceleration of goal production and as a result in that profile we should see lowered expectation of a draw in the Premier League.

In the table below the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band in 5% and the home teams opened the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band in 7%

It is also known that the opening goal by the away team 75+ minutes and lowered expectation of > 1-1 pathway with > 0-2 a far more likely outcome and if we look at the table below in the games where the away teams opened the scoring 75 minutes + we have a sample of 4 games ( 6% ) and in each game the fightback ( > 1-1 ) would have been a surprise .

Summary

Sample size is the biggest red herring in football data and analytics and your focus should be on the content of your sample .

1. If you are going to look to establish if teams are vulnerable or not after scoring to a quick response then I would advise not looking exclusively at a 1-1 full time sample for the simple reason that you will exclude a high number of early goal games where there is more likely to be a quick response .

2. The reason why there is a high percentage of games that end a draw in football is not because of expectation of a “ fightback ” but because in general there is low goal production in football games around the globe with the caveat that an early goal could result in acceleration of goal production .

If you are looking to build an in play betting / trading model around the DRAW then I would advise you to look at individual leagues around the globe to define how the time of the opening goal will effect goal(s) production as time decays .

T T+1
Man City Bourne H23 40
Watford WHU H3 73
Burnley Chelsea A7 24
Stoke Everton H7 39
Liverpool Chelsea A24 57
Boro WBA A6 17
Stoke Man UTD H19 90
Man UTD Liverpool A27 84
Watford Palace A26 71
Everton Man UTD A42 89
Man UTD WHU A2 21
Hull WBA A34 72
Everton Swansea A41 89
Man UTD Arsenal H68 89
Arsenal Spurs H42 51
Man City Boro H43 90
WHU Stoke H65 75
Spurs Leicester H44 48
Man City South A27 55
Man City Everton A64 72
WBA Spurs H82 89
Man UTD Stoke H69 82
Sunderland WBA A35 83
WHU Boro A51 57
Everton Palace H35 50
Stoke WBA H73 90
Burnley Hull H72 90
Palace Bourne A11 90
South Sunderland A80 85
Spurs Liverpool A43 70
Everton Spurs H5 59
Boro Stoke H11 67
South Watford A9 56
Chelsea Leicester H66 82
WBA Liverpool H13 23
Swansea Man City A5 45
Liverpool Chelsea A32 90
Bourne WBA A16 82
Man UTD Leicester H8 17
Stoke Sunderland H50 90
Spurs WBA H33 70
Newcastle Man City A14 31
Arsenal Palace H45 81
Everton South H68 76
Watford Everton A45 45
Liverpool Spurs H51 63
Newcastle Sunderland A44 83
Chelsea Stoke H39 85
South Sunderland A85 90
Chelsea Man UTD A61 90
Swansea Palace H13 47
WBA Swansea A64 90
Sunderland Bourne A13 45
Villa Leicester A28 75
Everton Spurs H22 45
Villa WHU A45 62
Newcastle Villa H38 61
Norwich Everton A15 47
Everton Palace A76 81
South Villa A44 73
WBA Spurs A15 39
Norwich Arsenal A30 43
WHU WBA H17 50
Leicester Man UTD H24 45
Arsenal Spurs A32 77
WHU Everton H30 43
Liverpool South H77 86
Everton Liverpool A41 45
Bourne Watford H28 45
Liverpool Norwich H48 61
Bourne Leicester H24 86
Norwich Stoke A11 28
Sunderland Swansea A45 62
Leicester Spurs A81 82

[jonnyg]

"If you are looking to build an in play betting / trading model around the DRAW then I would advise you to look at individual leagues around the globe to define how the time of the opening goal will effect goal(s) production as time decays ."

I have spent the last 5 years looking at game pathway analysis > in basic terms if a game is 1-0/0-1 < how likely given the time of the opening goal is the pathway > 2-0/0-2 or > 1-1 or will the game stick at 0-1/1-0 ?

Your first thought should be to look at what factors the betting industry algorithm(s) look at to price the goals market in play , for example does the algorithm factor the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game ?

[On Fire]

is there any software you use to get such statistics?

[jonnyg]

is there any software you use to get such statistics?

this is the only sticking point < I have had to collate the data manually thus far

[jonnyg]

Colorado Rapids
2 - 1
Portland Timbers View events More info
0 - 1
18' S. Blanco
D. Badji 51'
1 - 1
A. Gordon 89'
2 - 1


this was a great example last night < the last 21 games in the MLS 0-1 HT added to the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 18/21 ended over 2.5 goals < I can confirm that this is not a short term trend >

the last 31 games in MLS 0-1 HT added to the goal 0-20 and the home fightback in 46-70 minutes and 80% ended over 2.5 goals

+ an away win in this profile is very rare as well <

New York City
2 - 1
Seattle Sounders View events More info
0 - 1
40' C. Roldan
David Villa (PG) 52'
1 - 1
David Villa 77'
2 - 1

and this game was also last night < on 74 minutes over 2.5 was offered at 5/6

[Ralphyboy]

"If you are looking to build an in play betting / trading model around the DRAW then I would advise you to look at individual leagues around the globe to define how the time of the opening goal will effect goal(s) production as time decays ."

I have spent the last 5 years looking at game pathway analysis > in basic terms if a game is 1-0/0-1 < how likely given the time of the opening goal is the pathway > 2-0/0-2 or > 1-1 or will the game stick at 0-1/1-0 ?

Your first thought should be to look at what factors the betting industry algorithm(s) look at to price the goals market in play , for example does the algorithm factor the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game ?

Do you know what the betting industry algorithm looks at ? Im guessing your hinting at here that they dont look at the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game.

[jonnyg]

"If you are looking to build an in play betting / trading model around the DRAW then I would advise you to look at individual leagues around the globe to define how the time of the opening goal will effect goal(s) production as time decays ."

I have spent the last 5 years looking at game pathway analysis > in basic terms if a game is 1-0/0-1 < how likely given the time of the opening goal is the pathway > 2-0/0-2 or > 1-1 or will the game stick at 0-1/1-0 ?

Your first thought should be to look at what factors the betting industry algorithm(s) look at to price the goals market in play , for example does the algorithm factor the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game ?

Do you know what the betting industry algorithm looks at ? Im guessing your hinting at here that they dont look at the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game.

they are looking at the time left in the game < the goal line before the game started < massive flaw = for example 0-1 HT Brazil Serie A 0-20 is not the same game as 0-1 HT goal 21-HT in terms of expectation of goal production in the 2nd half > you can check with the betting industry but when the algo was built they forget to factor the time of the opening goal added to the game state < in an individual league