Been hunting for value in the FA Cup this afternoon. Liverpool are priced at 1.49 to win at Reading. Reading have had a rough time of it this year and it's the first year in a while where they are struggling to string together any sort of form. They are short on morale and currently have a caretaker manager in charge. Obviously Liverpool are not exactly on fire either but the gulf between the two teams is significant.
Reading are playing more like a league one than a championship team and only have won once in 12 attempts at home this season.
I've cut the stats on this match and Liverpool are flagged as big value. It looks to me as though the Liverpool price is around 10% out. This depends of course of the teams sheets being consistant, obviously team news can change. Also we have the "FA Cup" effect in place. If I re-cut the odds backwards then it seems to point to what the secondary markets are indicating, but the match odds are adrift from this consensus.
Current team news: -
"Reading caretaker boss Brian McDermott could recall Matthew Mills as he looks to bolster the defence after his side lost 4-1 at Plymouth on Monday. Midfielder Brian Howard is fit after a broken jaw and may start after two games as an unused substitute. Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez is expected to field a strong side, but is without Glen Johnson, who picked up a knee injury at Aston Villa. The Reds are also without suspended midfielder Javier Mascherano."
None of the stats I have in similar matches show a home win and there is a match with the same characteristics which was Reading vs Arsenal in 2007 which Reading lost 1-3.
Matches that exhibit similar characteristics: -
2007 - Santander vs. Barcelona - Result : 0-0
2007 - Moldova vs. Norway - Result : 0-1
2007 - Reggina vs. Inter - Result : 0-1
2007 - Amadora vs. Porto - Result : 2-2
2007 - Reading vs. Arsenal - Result : 1-3
2008 - Falkirk vs. Celtic - Result : 0-1
2008 - Polonia Bytom vs. Wisla Krakow - Result : 1-2
2008 - Middlesbrough vs. Man Utd - Result : 2-2
2008 - Gretna vs. St Mirren - Result : 0-0
2008 - Wisla Krakow vs. Barcelona - Result : 1-0
2008 - Brighton vs. Man City - Result : 2-2
2008 - Belarus vs. England - Result : 1-3
2008 - Estonia vs. Turkey - Result : 0-0
2008 - Kilmarnock vs. Rangers - Result : 0-4
2009 - Omonia vs. Aachen - Result : 0-8
2009 - Panserraikos vs. Olympiacos - Result : 0-1
2009 - Ajaccio GFCO vs. Paris St-G - Result : 0-3
2009 - Carl Zeiss J vs. Schalke - Result : 1-4
2009 - Wales vs. Germany - Result : 0-2
2009 - AC Horsens vs. FC Kobenhavn - Result : 0-2
2009 - West Brom vs. Liverpool - Result : 0-2
2009 - Debrecen vs. Fiorentina - Result : 3-4
2009 - Levski Sofia vs. Villarreal - Result : 0-2
While this match represents clear value that alone doesn't assure a postive result, but it does stick out from the fixture list.
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