Football trading : Using Soccer Mystic to Predict the Odds Movement

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Locked
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9533
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:18 am

The Soccer Mystic profiling tool is a way to help identify opportunities and give you that all important edge when trading soccer matches - it’s packed with a number of features to assist you when trading any of the Match odds, Over/Under or Correct Score markets and will help you pin point what times to get into and out of positions for the most value.

Not all matches can be profiled by Soccer mystic to ensure the one you want to trade is once you have added it to guardian check to make sure the soccer ball icon is displayed next to the fixture.

If searching for matches from within guardian using the “Market Selection” pane there is a “Soccer” tab at the bottom – here you can tick a box to ‘show only the matches supported by Soccer Mystic’.

Here I am going to look at just one way Soccer Mystic can be used and show just how easy it is to get started.

For this example I am going to be using the ‘match odds probability’ chart. This shows the expected movement of the match odds as the game progresses, you can chose which data you want to view in the chart but for this example I am going to leave each of the home, away & draw odds visible. (see top image)

At the top left you have the option to add in the goal times for each team, as each goal is scored the chart will change to reflect this based on which team scored and at what time in the game - Have a play about with this and enter some random times for each team just to see how the odds move about and how the impact differs depending on the times a goal is scored.

Here where going to assume after 25mins England have scored the 1st goal, so this has been entered in the ‘goal times’ area and you can see the impact it’s had on the match odds and by looking at the chart can subsequently see how the odds are expected to now move (see middle & bottom image).
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9533
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:21 am

So what information can be used from this?

Immediately it can be seen from the charts above that if nothing else happens during the next 40mins of game play there is expected to be very little movement in the odds for either the draw or England (Red and Blue lines) and by moving the mouse cursor around the chart a crosshair will appear which can be used to pinpoint where the odds will be at that moment in the match.

Using this we can see that between now and around the 70th min of the match the draw odds will only drift from around 6.0 out to 8.4 (12 ticks) and the odds for England will only shorten from 1.26 down to 1.15 (11 ticks) (see top Image below).

Now we just need to know what the impact of Russia scoring an equalizer would be, we can check this simply by entering few different times in the ‘Goal Times’ area – after doing this a few times it becomes obvious that no matter what the time entered is there would be a significant move in the odds of the draw and England should Russia score, the images show the expected odds should Russia equalize in just 15mins or if they equalized as late as the 70th min of the match (see bottom two images).

This is now a good opportunity to perhaps back the Draw OR lay England, and thanks to Soccer Mystic’s price predictions we have a good idea of the risk Vs reward we would be accepting and when the optimal time to think about exiting would be.

Unless England scores again there would be around 40 minutes of game play where the odds are not expected to move more than about dozen ticks against us.
Let’s say we do Lay England at 1.26 for £100 and look at the three possible scenarios.

Scenario 1) England score again their odds would drop to near 1.01 and most of £26 will likely be lost.
Scenario 2) there is no further goals between now and 70 min’s so the position has to be closed for a small loss of around a dozen ticks (which would be about a -£10 loss)
Scenario 3) Russia score at some point before 70 min’s, even if it’s still in the 1st half in just 15mins time England’s odds will drift to around 2.52 (An increase of 99 ticks) and allow us to trade out for around £50 profit, and If its later in the match around the 70th min England’s odds would now jump up to around 4.2 (143 ticks) and give us a profit of around £70

There would also be a similar scenarios for backing the Draw.

There is also a 4th option if you are watching the match which is to judge how the teams have reacted to the opening goal, If England are sitting back just trying to hold out while Russia pile on the pressure that’s even more reason to have a position open, Several min’s after taking the lead if England are still pushing for a 2nd goal and Russia just can’t get into the match then you could close the trade here - probably for no more than a tick or two loss and move onto the next match.

That’s just one of many way’s Soccer mystic can help you find an edge and pinpoint those entry and exit times when trading Soccer markets, the following video tutorials will show even more ways this useful tool can be used to increase your profits.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... 8385C5B599

Also this section of the user guide will help if you get stuck anywhere
http://www.betangel.com/user-guide/bet_ ... 3D&mw=MzIw
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9533
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:11 pm

If you prefer the Over/Under markets then Soccer Mystic can still offer you some invaluable help, not just with opening and closing of a position but also how you would manage an existing trade IF a goal is scored.

For example, I might like the look of the upcoming Bristol City Vs Aston Villa match and expect there to be very few goals (see bottom of the post if you’re unsure how to forecast goals). I’m therefore looking at backing ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ in this match. But before I do I want to know where my danger times are so I can try and formulate a backup plan in case it starts to go wrong.

After launching ‘Soccer Mystic’ I’ve clicked on the ‘Over / Under Probability’ tab, selected the ‘Under’ data line and set 2.5 as my target number of goals. I have also turned on the ‘Profit line’ (shown in light blue) – and it’s this line that will be important to me here.

SM1.JPG

What this is showing is when my trade will be in profit and when it will be in a loss, as ill be backing on this occasion so want to see the odds shorten if the green data line goes above the blue profit line I will now be in a losing position, while its below I’ll be in profit. So, if I were to back under 2.5 goals at KO at the current odds of 2.02 as soon as the match gets underway I’ll begin to move straight into profit, and if there are no goals scored there will of course be a steady decrease in the U2.5 odds as the match progresses.

But that’s wishful thinking and very few matches will actually end 0-0 so I want to know what will happen if a goal is scored and see how it effects the odds and more importantly my profit or loss. To do this i simply need to enter the time of the goal, the chart will then update and show me what effects that will have. Let's start by seeing what will happen if there is an early goal say after 5 mins - as you can see and would expect the odds drift sharply going way over the profit line meaning I would now be in a loss – no surprise there but using ‘Soccer Mystic’ I can also see the following two key pieces of information.

A, Exactly how bad the damage is likely to be by seeing were the odds are likely to drift to
B, How long I would then have to wait without further goals before I got back to scratch or even moved back into profit.

SM1a.jpg

Knowing those two bits of information will help when deciding what I’ll do if there is an early goal scored, so if it does now happen I can be prepared.

I might also want to know just how far into this match it does need to be before I can remain in profit even after a goal is scored, by having a play with the timing of the first goal ‘Soccer Mystic’ will show me this on the chart, even at 25mins a goal will still see me move into a small losing position however with no further goals in this half I would be back in profit within about 10 mins and by half time be back up to a decent profit as the odds will of shortened to around 1.70

SM2.JPG

After a little more experimenting with the goal times I’ve found that in this match if it gets to about 35mins without a goal I can still remain in profit even after the 1st is scored.

Now what about a 2nd goal, what effects will that have? You can find this out in just the same way, after a little further playing about with the goals times I can see for this match that a 1st goal after 35mins and a 2nd goal after 69 mins will keep me in profit throughout.

SM4.JPG

Depending which of the Over/Under markets you are trading you can do this by adding up to 6 goals (so all over under markets up 5.5 can be checked).

Even if you did not check prior to the match and had already backed the U2.5 goals or placed any bet on the O/U or Match Odds markets, as soon as a goal goes in there is nothing to stop you firing up soccer mystic punching in the goal time and seeing where you now stand and then having a play around with some scenarios before managing your position accordingly.

If you’re new to trading football and/or not sure how to get started in forecast the expected number of goals check these video tutorials.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDCAUZE ... 9&index=40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZv ... 9&index=39

Or keep an eye on the ‘Goal Ratings’ thread were ‘Euler’ frequently posts his goal ratings for you to use.

http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... &start=391
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Locked

Return to “Football trading”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests