I know PW and myself enjoy the relegation market, does anyone else trade this?
I think Palace are a huge price, and could be worth a nibble.
Sunderland v Swansea
Palace v Hull
Swansea seem to have the wind in their sails, so will fancy a win at Sunderland. Hull are top price of 4.2 to win at Palace
However, 2 away wins there are more than possible - that will leave going into the final day
Palace 38
Swansea 38
Hull 37
Palace are away to Man Utd on the final day
Swansea home to WBA
Hull home to Spurs
Hull would need to beat Spurs due to their goal difference, but Chelsea will have won the league by then, so will have nothing to play for. If they beat Tottenham, then even a draw at Old Trafford probably won't be enough for Palace
Premier League 2016/17
Premier League 2016-2017 Relegation Prediction Via the Shot Conceding Metric
Posted on: January 31st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
Posted on: December 5th, 2016
In the table below I have added the teams that were in the bottom 3 re the conceding shot metric in the Premier League ( bottom 4 2014-2015) to show that there is some correlation between conceding shots and being relegated which appears to be a logical conclusion.
What is of further interest is that teams that have been in the bottom 3 in a season with regard to shots conceded and have not gone down have found that they have in general been relegated in subsequent seasons.
Sundererland and Crystal Palace in the table below are the only 2 teams to have not been relegated in that time period .
In terms of the bottom three this season re shots conceded <> Burnley , Sunderland and Hull
To be relegated
Hull 4/11, Burnley 8/11, Sunderland 5/6 , Swansea 10/11 , Boro 4/1, West Ham 6/1 , Palace 7/1
Summary
Crystal Palace at 7/1 fit the profile of a relegated team in terms of the shot conceding metric with Hull, and Burnley likely to join them .
2008-2009 Position
Bolton 13th
West Ham 9th
Boro Relegated
2009-2010 Position
Hull Relegated
Burnley Relegated
Birmingham 9th
2010-2011 Position
Blackpool Relegated
West Ham Relegated
Birmingham Relegated
2011-2012 Position
Wolves Relegated
Bolton Relegated
Blackburn Relegated
2012-2013 Position
Sunderland 17th
Fulham 12th
Reading Relegated
2013-2014 Position
Fulham Relegated
West Ham 13th
Cardiff Relegated
2014-2015 Position
West Ham 12th
Burnley Relegated
QPR Relegated
Sunderland 16th
2015-2016
Newcastle Relegated
Palace 15th
Sunderland 17th
Premier League – Relegation Betting Odds as at 31st January 2017
Sunderland 1/5
Hull 1/4
Swansea 5/4 > do not fit the profile of a relegated team >
Crystal Palace 13/8
Boro 11/4
Burnley 8/1
Posted on: January 31st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
Posted on: December 5th, 2016
In the table below I have added the teams that were in the bottom 3 re the conceding shot metric in the Premier League ( bottom 4 2014-2015) to show that there is some correlation between conceding shots and being relegated which appears to be a logical conclusion.
What is of further interest is that teams that have been in the bottom 3 in a season with regard to shots conceded and have not gone down have found that they have in general been relegated in subsequent seasons.
Sundererland and Crystal Palace in the table below are the only 2 teams to have not been relegated in that time period .
In terms of the bottom three this season re shots conceded <> Burnley , Sunderland and Hull
To be relegated
Hull 4/11, Burnley 8/11, Sunderland 5/6 , Swansea 10/11 , Boro 4/1, West Ham 6/1 , Palace 7/1
Summary
Crystal Palace at 7/1 fit the profile of a relegated team in terms of the shot conceding metric with Hull, and Burnley likely to join them .
2008-2009 Position
Bolton 13th
West Ham 9th
Boro Relegated
2009-2010 Position
Hull Relegated
Burnley Relegated
Birmingham 9th
2010-2011 Position
Blackpool Relegated
West Ham Relegated
Birmingham Relegated
2011-2012 Position
Wolves Relegated
Bolton Relegated
Blackburn Relegated
2012-2013 Position
Sunderland 17th
Fulham 12th
Reading Relegated
2013-2014 Position
Fulham Relegated
West Ham 13th
Cardiff Relegated
2014-2015 Position
West Ham 12th
Burnley Relegated
QPR Relegated
Sunderland 16th
2015-2016
Newcastle Relegated
Palace 15th
Sunderland 17th
Premier League – Relegation Betting Odds as at 31st January 2017
Sunderland 1/5
Hull 1/4
Swansea 5/4 > do not fit the profile of a relegated team >
Crystal Palace 13/8
Boro 11/4
Burnley 8/1
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I'm waiting until Swansea have drawn or beaten Sunderland on Saturday. If Sunderland win I'll be break even but even happier.
Vs Hull...Palace should be back up to full strengh at the back next week and when they are, they've been great (excl vs Real Soton of course).
They can score too (9th highest, Hull only 18th) Hull are also the leakiest team in the league at 1.91 GA per game. A +18 GD over Hull, even after losing 5 to ManCity, should tell the tale.
A nailbiting Redandbluearmy 3-1 win....if this game matters. But if it goes to the final week Palace are down.
Palace always make life hard for themselves and with that lucky good spell and a tough run in, the huge odds a few weeks ago (100+) were just too good not to have a small nibble at.
The last time Palace had a 4th year in the top flight was 1973 !!!
The 90's were especially stressful and feel like yesterday
1991–92 Div 1
1992–93 Prem
1993–94 Div 1
1994–95 Prem
1995–96 Div 1
1996–97 Div 1
1997–98 Prem
1998–99 Div 1
Three words spring to mind their;ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2017 4:42 am
The 90's were especially stressful and feel like yesterday
1991–92 Div 1
1992–93 Prem
1993–94 Div 1
1994–95 Prem
1995–96 Div 1
1996–97 Div 1
1997–98 Prem
1998–99 Div 1
Letiss, Knickers, Jordan
United may have a Europa league final to prepare for if they get through of course. Think its on the 24th if I remember correctly (Peter made me aware) so may play a weakened side against palace but still wont be no easy task if the above situation happens.LeTiss wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2017 10:43 amI know PW and myself enjoy the relegation market, does anyone else trade this?
I think Palace are a huge price, and could be worth a nibble.
Sunderland v Swansea
Palace v Hull
Swansea seem to have the wind in their sails, so will fancy a win at Sunderland. Hull are top price of 4.2 to win at Palace
However, 2 away wins there are more than possible - that will leave going into the final day
Palace 38
Swansea 38
Hull 37
Palace are away to Man Utd on the final day
Swansea home to WBA
Hull home to Spurs
Hull would need to beat Spurs due to their goal difference, but Chelsea will have won the league by then, so will have nothing to play for. If they beat Tottenham, then even a draw at Old Trafford probably won't be enough for Palace
IDK if anyone dabbles in the Top 4 Finish market or didn't yet notice but just FYI a large amount of bets on that market were void by Betfair yesterday, among those were many of my own bets which cost me a bit of profit and even left me with an open position on Liverpool which I had to close. I asked them on twitter late last night and they replied with this:
"The market was set to the incorrect number of winners from 16:05 on the 07/05/17 until around 15:02 today. It was set to 4 winners with 4 runners in the market, instead of 2 winners, which has therefore affected your exposure and balance when the winners were reverted to 2 winners today. As a result of this all placed bets during this period may have gone into big deficits due to the incorrect set-up, resulting in their accounts appearing as a negative balance."
Also received a confirmation email from them today saying the same thing along with an apology but the majority of my bets there still stand so ultimately not a big deal. The City price on that market touched 1.01 recently and now 1.03 is the lowest price that money was matched on, all of the activity during this period is just deleted which is not cool at all.
"The market was set to the incorrect number of winners from 16:05 on the 07/05/17 until around 15:02 today. It was set to 4 winners with 4 runners in the market, instead of 2 winners, which has therefore affected your exposure and balance when the winners were reverted to 2 winners today. As a result of this all placed bets during this period may have gone into big deficits due to the incorrect set-up, resulting in their accounts appearing as a negative balance."
Also received a confirmation email from them today saying the same thing along with an apology but the majority of my bets there still stand so ultimately not a big deal. The City price on that market touched 1.01 recently and now 1.03 is the lowest price that money was matched on, all of the activity during this period is just deleted which is not cool at all.