Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Rstrach
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:33 pm

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:11 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:33 pm
The EFL Trophy really does throw out some curve balls. Given how important team/squad selection is with a number of the teams being U21's and the most of the rest taking it as something close to friendlies, it's likely best to steer clear, unless you've got inside knowledge. Doesn't stop it being interesting though. Point in case: Stevenage vs. Brighton U21. The away team has steamed in since yesterday-ish from about 2.60 and are now pushing 1.60 with money still pouring in. I can't seem to find any good sources for what is causing a push this big. Any good sources for this level of football? I can't recall seeing this big a shift in football before, and can't help feel it'll swing back to some extent.....if you can catch it at the right time....
I find this a lot with my native development league in scotland.. hearsay regarding injured senior players given 45 etc. or illness in the camp - common reasons for big(ish) moves especially on markets with piss poor liquidity?

Has much been matched on stevenage game? Seen a little bit on twitter of people predicting stevenage will play their under 12s team.. perhaps bold but i would agree unless you catch the swing at right point maybe best to stay away!

R :D

Kafkaesque
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:41 pm

220.000 on the Stevenage one, but that's all the steaming. I've seen matches in this tournament this season with anywhere from less than 5.000 to 500.000 matched at kick-off. Which should be further evidence, that there's only anything to be gained by market movers, and it should really only be entered really proactively.

Drifted back out to the 1.75-1.80 mark, incidently. Should have gone in :evil:

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LeTiss
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Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:57 am

Interesting looking at the Ireland vs Denmark prices

The market is suggesting that an Ireland win is the least likely outcome.

I struggle to accept that, especially in front of a fired up Dublin crowd.
Denmark aren't exactly one of the experienced powerhouses of Europe

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Naffman
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Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:08 am

The market is suggesting a Denmark win is most likely :)

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Euler
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Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:58 am

0-0 has 65% of the volume in the correct score market and is trading at 5.90. So it seems the market thinks Denmark will just shut up shop. I'd imagine Roy Keane may have something to say about that.

Trading96
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:27 am

The last 4 qualifying matches have all ended 0-0. Including all second legs so far, and the reverse fixture. Few accas probably 1 away.

Kafkaesque
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Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:48 am

LeTiss wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:57 am
Interesting looking at the Ireland vs Denmark prices

The market is suggesting that an Ireland win is the least likely outcome.

I struggle to accept that, especially in front of a fired up Dublin crowd.
Denmark aren't exactly one of the experienced powerhouses of Europe
Well interesting indeed, because my thinking is exactly the opposite. My feeling was that the 3.00ish on offer for Denmark immidiately after the reverse was waaaaaaay too high, and though to a lesser degree the same for the draw price. Still think the Denmark price is too high. By some way. I went heavy against Ireland early. Being Danish has little to do with it, as I felt the price for Denmark last time round was way too short. Probably I just feel that the home advantage is less signifant in these types of playoffs than the market does.
Euler wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:58 am
0-0 has 65% of the volume in the match odds market and is trading at 5.90. So it seems the market thinks Denmark will just shut up shop. I'd imagine Roy Keane may have something to say about that.
I'd be very interested to know how you got to that conclusion. The shortening of the price for 0-0, the draw and Denmark would suggest to me that the market thinks a cagey affair allround, with Ireland less likely to have the quality to break the deadlock.

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Naffman
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Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:21 pm

Both lack quality especially up front so not surprised to see the draw sub 3.0 with so much at stake too.

I just hope Bendtner can win it for Denmark how good would that be!! He could be a king instead of a lord :lol:

Kafkaesque
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Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:49 pm

Early doors, but Watford vs. West Ham has really got my attention. I'm not exactly a fan of David Moyes, but I'm still pretty amazed that the price for West Ham has been incredible stable since Bilic was sacked, and Moyes appointed. Where the new manager-effect in the market, and what am I missing? An argument could be made that the first order of business for Moyes will be to steady the ship. Thus a draw will be just fine and then some for WH. But that price has remained steady as well.

Toss in, Everton more than just sniffing around Silva. It's gotta effect the Watford players that their manager is wanting to leave a few months into his career at the club (even if they do change the manager and half the squad each season) after such a good start. And if he does leave in the next day or two, I can see the price on WH tumbling. I'm, at least, loaded on WH and a bit on the draw. But I keep coming back to what the **** am I missing? :roll:

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ShaunWhite
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Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:55 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:49 pm
Where the new manager-effect in the market, and what am I missing?
Is that the same 'new manager' effect Palace have been experiencing on a monthly basis....ie makes f-all difference. :)

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