Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:51 pm
Dropping odds after Barcelona's team announced.


BarcvSpurs.PNG
It was quite a move, and where alerts running in the background like this come into there own
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16754
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

why do we get these constant suspensions in games when nothing has happened?

I only dabble for fun in-play with football, but it must be frustrating as hell for serious players.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Dallas wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:00 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:51 pm
Dropping odds after Barcelona's team announced.


BarcvSpurs.PNG
It was quite a move, and where alerts running in the background like this come into there own
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16754
Nice one, as per usual!
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

superfrank wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:07 pm
why do we get these constant suspensions in games when nothing has happened?

I only dabble for fun in-play with football, but it must be frustrating as hell for serious players.
The suspend monkeys are super sensitive nowadays, it's very annoying.
henbet22
Posts: 216
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Dallas wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:00 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:51 pm
Dropping odds after Barcelona's team announced.


BarcvSpurs.PNG
It was quite a move, and where alerts running in the background like this come into there own
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16754
Thanks Dallas. That's a great bot. Will help my understanding and is probably an edge in itself in many markets. :D
User avatar
northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Europa League tonight.

Considering laying some of the already qualified teams, as I'm 75% confident that some of them will stumble.

17:55 Mol Vidi v Chelsea ... 1.67
17:55 Dynamo Kiev v Jablonec ... 1.96

20:00 Arsenal v Qarabag ... 1.31
20:00 Sporting Lisbon v Vorskla ... 1.37
20:00 Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht ... 1.56
20:00 Aek Larnaca v Leverkusen ... 1.99
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

northbound wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:13 pm
Europa League tonight.

Considering laying some of the already qualified teams, as I'm 75% confident that some of them will stumble.

17:55 Mol Vidi v Chelsea ... 1.67
17:55 Dynamo Kiev v Jablonec ... 1.96

20:00 Arsenal v Qarabag ... 1.31
20:00 Sporting Lisbon v Vorskla ... 1.37
20:00 Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht ... 1.56
20:00 Aek Larnaca v Leverkusen ... 1.99
Decent shout with 3 losing and 4 going behind to the first goal
Almanac
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 2:47 pm

superfrank wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:07 pm
why do we get these constant suspensions in games when nothing has happened?

I only dabble for fun in-play with football, but it must be frustrating as hell for serious players.
The market suspensions are controlled by a 3rd party live data provider such as Runningball. They basically have 'scouts' who attend the match and tap away on a pda device, reporting all the events that take place in the match. They are advised to quickly press the 'possible red card' button if there are any dangerous fouls which in turn suspends the market. As runningball deducts the wages of scouts for any mistakes or delays this can make the scout panic and hit this button every time the ref blows for a freekick. Some scouts are better than others and the high priority games are backed up by a supervisor watching raw tv feeds so they can quickly rectify any needless suspensions.
Almanac
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 2:47 pm

I have been looking in to teams whos price significantly shortens/lenghtens in-play whilst the game remains 0-0.
Teams that are dominating play, more pressure, more attacks, more shots on goal etc. basically teams that are on top.
I would be very interersted to know the thoughts of the traders on here. Obviously significant events effect the price but how do you factor in a dominant team, are the large price movements justified?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Almanac
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 2:47 pm

Salzburg had an SP of around 3.4, they didn't go above this price until the 60th minute.

If you had to place a bet on Salzburg at 3.4, would you have backed them pre-match or backed them at 60 mins with the score 0-0 but looking the better team? Or do you see the chance equal as the odds suggest?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Almanac on Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

I made an experiment related to this recently.

For a while, on teams with an SP <= 2.80, I had a bot placing a back bet 10 ticks higher at KO. The bet would expire after 10min if unmatched.

The idea was to bet on slow starting teams, basically opposing my perceived “overreaction” of people who bet on the early dominant team.

Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run. After 200 bets I was even (after commission), then decided to end the experiment.
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

a bit of a question for those that are looking at market shape on the OU markets IP. I notice a game currently playing (Goa v North East) has been flat lining on the OU1.5 unders for the past 25 minutes (i know that it will stay stable ish at half time but this was for 10 minutes pre HT). I am reading into this that the game could produce a goal.

it's now half time and the under odds are still above 1.5 odds... is there anything to be drawn from this on a purely stats based basis. the rationale being that i'd like to blackbox certain markets to provide signals (SV's) to other markets and am loking at cases such as this as being a potential signal (among others)

[Edit] - still flat lining and we're 10 mins into 2nd half - 2nd image from that point)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

northbound wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:23 pm


Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run.
What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored unless those teams were really dominating the game and you've always about a 10% chance of a goal being scored by either team too for that 10 minute slot
Almanac
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 2:47 pm

"I made an experiment related to this recently.

For a while, on teams with an SP <= 2.80, I had a bot placing a back bet 10 ticks higher at KO. The bet would expire after 10min if unmatched.

The idea was to bet on slow starting teams, basically opposing my perceived “overreaction” of people who bet on the early dominant team.

Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run. After 200 bets I was even (after commission), then decided to end the experiment"

That's interesting northbound, probably saved me a lot of time and effort creating a bot along the same lines. I was going to look in to laying the overreaction at the lowest point with a view to trade out at the SP.
I remember 'beat the overround' trying to lay horses below sp in the first 5/10 secs of a race. I feel a team dropping from 3.4 to 2.4 without scoring is definitely an 'overreaction'. As a scalper I had focussed more on identifying the point in which the price begins to revert, I think with Salzburg it was around the 35th min mark...there may be opportunity to make a few ticks profit in very short time scales. The reversion seems to move at a faster rate, especially at the start of the 2nd half.
Similar to identifying front runners, teams which tend to press early may be worth looking at but I should imagine this will just equate to teams playing at home or heavy favourites. A database with a teams deviation from sp in the first 10 minutes would be ideal, highest and lowest traded prices.
Thanks for the feedback, it's nice to have some interaction with fellow traders....posted on twitter and didn't get any response at all.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

jimibt wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:01 pm
a bit of a question for those that are looking at market shape on the OU markets IP. I notice a game currently playing (Goa v North East) has been flat lining on the OU1.5 unders for the past 25 minutes (i know that it will stay stable ish at half time but this was for 10 minutes pre HT). I am reading into this that the game could produce a goal.
Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”