Today's Football

[northbound]

I made an experiment related to this recently.

For a while, on teams with an SP <= 2.80, I had a bot placing a back bet 10 ticks higher at KO. The bet would expire after 10min if unmatched.

The idea was to bet on slow starting teams, basically opposing my perceived “overreaction” of people who bet on the early dominant team.

Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run. After 200 bets I was even (after commission), then decided to end the experiment.

[jimibt]

a bit of a question for those that are looking at market shape on the OU markets IP. I notice a game currently playing (Goa v North East) has been flat lining on the OU1.5 unders for the past 25 minutes (i know that it will stay stable ish at half time but this was for 10 minutes pre HT). I am reading into this that the game could produce a goal.

it's now half time and the under odds are still above 1.5 odds... is there anything to be drawn from this on a purely stats based basis. the rationale being that i'd like to blackbox certain markets to provide signals (SV's) to other markets and am loking at cases such as this as being a potential signal (among others)

[Edit] - still flat lining and we're 10 mins into 2nd half - 2nd image from that point)

[spreadbetting]

Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run.

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored unless those teams were really dominating the game and you've always about a 10% chance of a goal being scored by either team too for that 10 minute slot

[Almanac]

"I made an experiment related to this recently.

For a while, on teams with an SP <= 2.80, I had a bot placing a back bet 10 ticks higher at KO. The bet would expire after 10min if unmatched.

The idea was to bet on slow starting teams, basically opposing my perceived “overreaction” of people who bet on the early dominant team.

Had a really good run of results, then a really bad run. After 200 bets I was even (after commission), then decided to end the experiment"

That's interesting northbound, probably saved me a lot of time and effort creating a bot along the same lines. I was going to look in to laying the overreaction at the lowest point with a view to trade out at the SP.
I remember 'beat the overround' trying to lay horses below sp in the first 5/10 secs of a race. I feel a team dropping from 3.4 to 2.4 without scoring is definitely an 'overreaction'. As a scalper I had focussed more on identifying the point in which the price begins to revert, I think with Salzburg it was around the 35th min mark...there may be opportunity to make a few ticks profit in very short time scales. The reversion seems to move at a faster rate, especially at the start of the 2nd half.
Similar to identifying front runners, teams which tend to press early may be worth looking at but I should imagine this will just equate to teams playing at home or heavy favourites. A database with a teams deviation from sp in the first 10 minutes would be ideal, highest and lowest traded prices.
Thanks for the feedback, it's nice to have some interaction with fellow traders....posted on twitter and didn't get any response at all.

[spreadbetting]

a bit of a question for those that are looking at market shape on the OU markets IP. I notice a game currently playing (Goa v North East) has been flat lining on the OU1.5 unders for the past 25 minutes (i know that it will stay stable ish at half time but this was for 10 minutes pre HT). I am reading into this that the game could produce a goal.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

[jimibt]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

[spreadbetting]

The 0-0 was early priced at 15 so was always goals expected in the match, when the odds remain static outside of your expected probability it either means there's a high probbility from the action on the pitch or someone's expecting a goal at that time. I've bet on far too many minor league games where the odds look well out of line and rarely come out on top so now simply avoid them as I'm neither in the know or watching the game so not worth the risk for me.

[Almanac]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

3-0 now! Strange spike in the O/U 2.5 market also.

[jimibt]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

3-0 now! Strange spike in the O/U 2.5 market also.

i'm trying to get to grips with the interplay on the MO/OUxx markets and this one defied my normal understanding (and flagged itself up). thus i expected it meant some goals in the offing. alas this is stuff i'm runnning in automation test, so a fictitious £200 profit wasn't actually realised!! however, it all contibutes to a final working model.

[northbound]

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

I was letting the bets run as it was a value entry point experiment. Also, I'm a LOOONG way from paying PC. You said it yourself, finding something that works consistently is a slog

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored

Not quite. From memory, I got 1 bet matched every 4-5 games.

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

[spreadbetting]

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

I was letting the bets run as it was a value entry point experiment. Also, I'm a LOOONG way from paying PC. You said it yourself, finding something that works consistently is a slog

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored

Not quite. From memory, I got 1 bet matched every 4-5 games.

Don't be too complacent about PC, the best time to prepare for it is before you pay it, not after. In my experience once you hit those winning ideas the money will just pour in, it's never some gradual increase.

I'm surprised you were only getting 1 in 4/5 bets matched, I'd have assumed the odds would drop 10 ticks in those 10 minutes. I used to have a spreadsheet calculating the odds decay overtime a bit like BA's football trader(?) in order to scalp in the more active parts of a match but can't seem to locate it and far too much hassle to recreate it.

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume