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Today's Football
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Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
Fair warning: I'm a huge Spurs fan, and generally stay clear of their matches as I don't want a position forcing me to hope for matches to go against Spurs.
With Kane likely to be out for the CL return leg this one sits up nicely. I'm of the opinion that injuries to specific players are assigned too much value in the market. To be clear, it should play into the prices; I just think the market overreacts to it quite often. I strongly suspect this will be the case with Spurs and Kane. Whether you believe City or Spurs will draw the short straw, I think the value will be on Spurs at kickoff time, and there's liable to be value in trading against Spurs/on City prior to that, as the price might move as the talking heads on TV goes into overdrive talking up Kane's significance. Here's what they - likely - won't be telling you, giving that it doesn't fit the narrative of the great story of "Can Spurs cope without Kane?" which is the story, they're bound to be selling in the next week:
Spurs 18/19 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 1.81
Points/match wo Kane starting: 3.00
Points/match all matches: 2.00
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 1.85
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 2.00
Goals scores all matches: 1.88
Spurs 17/18 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.03
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.00
Points/match all matches: 2.03
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 1.97
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.67
Goals scores all matches: 1.95
Spurs 16/17 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.24
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.33
Points/match all matches: 2.26
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 2.38
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.89
Goals scores all matches: 2.26
Spurs total since start of 16/17 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.03
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.47
Points/match all matches: 2.10
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 2.07
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.88
Goals scores all matches: 2.04
The goals number are somewhat influenced by Kane playing a big part in some routs, especially at the tail end of 16/17. The points tally though is interesting and imo an example of confirmation bias. In that if Spurs drop points, when Kane is out, the narrative is that it's in large part down to just that. The numbers, small sample or not, shows a different story though, and they're trending in the right direction.
With not a single soul in the Spurs dressing likely to have forgotten Pep's "The Harry Kane team" comment, if a CL QF isn't enough motivation, that'll mean every Spurs taking everything they got and then some to the field, even more so if Kane doesn't play.
With Kane likely to be out for the CL return leg this one sits up nicely. I'm of the opinion that injuries to specific players are assigned too much value in the market. To be clear, it should play into the prices; I just think the market overreacts to it quite often. I strongly suspect this will be the case with Spurs and Kane. Whether you believe City or Spurs will draw the short straw, I think the value will be on Spurs at kickoff time, and there's liable to be value in trading against Spurs/on City prior to that, as the price might move as the talking heads on TV goes into overdrive talking up Kane's significance. Here's what they - likely - won't be telling you, giving that it doesn't fit the narrative of the great story of "Can Spurs cope without Kane?" which is the story, they're bound to be selling in the next week:
Spurs 18/19 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 1.81
Points/match wo Kane starting: 3.00
Points/match all matches: 2.00
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 1.85
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 2.00
Goals scores all matches: 1.88
Spurs 17/18 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.03
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.00
Points/match all matches: 2.03
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 1.97
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.67
Goals scores all matches: 1.95
Spurs 16/17 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.24
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.33
Points/match all matches: 2.26
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 2.38
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.89
Goals scores all matches: 2.26
Spurs total since start of 16/17 PL only:
Points/match w Kane starting: 2.03
Points/match wo Kane starting: 2.47
Points/match all matches: 2.10
Goals scored/match w Kane starting: 2.07
Goals scored/match wo Kane starting: 1.88
Goals scores all matches: 2.04
The goals number are somewhat influenced by Kane playing a big part in some routs, especially at the tail end of 16/17. The points tally though is interesting and imo an example of confirmation bias. In that if Spurs drop points, when Kane is out, the narrative is that it's in large part down to just that. The numbers, small sample or not, shows a different story though, and they're trending in the right direction.
With not a single soul in the Spurs dressing likely to have forgotten Pep's "The Harry Kane team" comment, if a CL QF isn't enough motivation, that'll mean every Spurs taking everything they got and then some to the field, even more so if Kane doesn't play.
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Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
That's positively insane
I would say though. A number of those other players would also be well away from the pack, if they were giving the circumstances, Messi has. Not as much, but they'd also look special in that chart. The most open league tactically of the five; the best team in the league by some margin; completely free role within that team and it set up to his strengths; only doing defensive work when he fancies.
Ronaldo and Neymar has some of the same conditions to work with, but still not even close, and the rest will only have those working conditions in their dreams.
hi invisiblelayer. I was at all 3 united games this season. United were completely out of sorts though under Mourinho at Old Traffford. Costa set up Moutinho's equaliser at Old Trafford but other than away against Spurs at Wembley Costa has had a really disappointing season and I reckon we will be offloading him in the summer, probably along with Cavaleiro. Both good players but both have disappointed this season. For me Moutinho was the man up at Old Trafford though I think that nearly every game - absolute gem of a player - 5 foot 7 of football heaven as per his song. Given Man Utds improvement since Mourinho left and Solskjaer came in it looks like they had downed tools which is shocking really for supposed top class professionals so there is definitely a bit of an underlying attitude issue with some United players IMO and overall I just dont think they have enough quality so they have done well to stay in the top 6 IMO. Europa League next season for them IMO and on their way out of Champions League by the looks of it unless they can repeat their Paris miracle at the Nou Camp.invisiblelayer wrote: ↑Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:26 amCosta was phenomenal United away wasn't he, just not happened for him really this season. I'm Stafford based now so been a few games with some Wolves fans over years not this season though. I'm waiting for MGW first goal seeing as he's local, maybe come if he throws him into Jota's position? Looks extremely talented. As a neutral I don't think Nuno did a great deal wrong, taking tired legs off and more defense minded to try and kill the game. Watford deserve full credit but that's a bad beat. Nuno is quickly building something and I'd agree wouldn't be many United players I'd take so not a surprise to all they've turned them over a few times and glad they did as nothing worse than these clowns you see locally in Man United or Liverpool shirts, no affiliation or family links to said areas *head in hands emoji*. I did go the Stoke friendly and was some fans nearly in tears Douglas sold around that time but just look at what you have now, that Vinagre looks quality and he's a backup to Jonny, there is definitely good times ahead for you lot. That can't be said for me with football, wondering if Bywater gets a 12 month extention and if we have to register our fitness coach as an outfield player again for games to make up numbers!
As regards MGW he had a great game aginst Chelsea but has been a bit inconsistent, no surprise for an 18 year old kid I guess. On selling Douglas then defensively Jonny is usually rock solid and a much, much better player than Douglas although we have still missed Douglas's phenomenal dead ball ability on corners and free kicks. Vinagre is a very talented 19 year old but definitely not so solid defensively as Jonny but offers more going forward and scored a great goal at Burton last season. Vinagre basically does as many stepovers as Cristiano Ronaldo used to do when he was 19 and first moved to Man Utd. There are rumours that Klopp has made an approach for Vinagre.
It was a great comeback by Watford and to be fair Wolves first goal was also against the run of play. What was really disappointing was how Wolves sat back those last 15 minutes of the 90 to defend the 2-0. We just seemed to lose all composure and ability to pass the ball around and keep possession and that is very, very unusual for us under Nuno.
I would have said it's likely to be a VAR incident
Looking a the chart if it was they've been unlucky this match
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i followed info on flashscore . after the red dot disappear (means no risk of a goal) i immediately snap up whatever is left at the lower range of marseillie. easy money.
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
I had a German exchange student staying with me and we'd gone to London for the day and I heard about it on the radio in a cab. Very sad day.
