Football trading : Scalpy by Psychoff

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max_usted
Posts: 132
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm

Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?

deansaccount
Posts: 112
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 5:19 pm

Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:04 pm

max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
Before he made that tweet I had suspected he was doing something similar. He also answered one of my questions with 'Scalpy has a unique algoritm which comes from my 12-years experience in soccer inplay markets.' So he is not simply backing under 1.5 when the score is 1-0.

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jimibt
Posts: 1471
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:09 pm

deansaccount wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:04 pm
max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
Before he made that tweet I had suspected he was doing something similar. He also answered one of my questions with 'Scalpy has a unique algoritm which comes from my 12-years experience in soccer inplay markets.' So he is not simply backing under 1.5 when the score is 1-0.
i think there's a crossover point that yields a small but consistent edge where you lay the CS score (on 1-0) and back the over 1.5 market by some multiple. only access to the live data would really allow you to make this decision point with any real success as the odds on both markets will have to *align* to make this happen. that said, there is a risk that there would be no change and both markets would run against you, so it's definitely a subtle trade.

max_usted
Posts: 132
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:40 am

jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:09 pm
deansaccount wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:04 pm
max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
Before he made that tweet I had suspected he was doing something similar. He also answered one of my questions with 'Scalpy has a unique algoritm which comes from my 12-years experience in soccer inplay markets.' So he is not simply backing under 1.5 when the score is 1-0.
i think there's a crossover point that yields a small but consistent edge where you lay the CS score (on 1-0) and back the over 1.5 market by some multiple. only access to the live data would really allow you to make this decision point with any real success as the odds on both markets will have to *align* to make this happen. that said, there is a risk that there would be no change and both markets would run against you, so it's definitely a subtle trade.
Hmm interesting.

He also posts the trades and I think that he must be laying in both the Unders and CS markets at some points. For instance, there's a few trades when he gets full return of his stake (profit) in both the u1.5 market and CS market when the score in the game was 4-2 or 7-1.

Guess it's unfair to pry too much but just interested in what his approach is as I never trade using CS markets with others simultaneously.

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jimibt
Posts: 1471
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:02 am

max_usted wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:40 am
jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:09 pm
deansaccount wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:04 pm


Before he made that tweet I had suspected he was doing something similar. He also answered one of my questions with 'Scalpy has a unique algoritm which comes from my 12-years experience in soccer inplay markets.' So he is not simply backing under 1.5 when the score is 1-0.
i think there's a crossover point that yields a small but consistent edge where you lay the CS score (on 1-0) and back the over 1.5 market by some multiple. only access to the live data would really allow you to make this decision point with any real success as the odds on both markets will have to *align* to make this happen. that said, there is a risk that there would be no change and both markets would run against you, so it's definitely a subtle trade.
Hmm interesting.

He also posts the trades and I think that he must be laying in both the Unders and CS markets at some points. For instance, there's a few trades when he gets full return of his stake (profit) in both the u1.5 market and CS market when the score in the game was 4-2 or 7-1.

Guess it's unfair to pry too much but just interested in what his approach is as I never trade using CS markets with others simultaneously.
it's certainly genius to be able to lay the u1.5 and get the full stake returned when the final result is such an outlandish score. mind now whirring!!

xitian
Posts: 454
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:49 pm

max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
If you think about it, if the score is currently 1-0, then trading CS 1-0 and U1.5 is exactly the same thing. Backing either results in a loss if a goal goes in, or a win if there are no goals, and vice versa for laying. The prices should be identical. Often the prices might be slightly difference, but rarely (if ever) would there be a opportunity for arbitrage. You would pick one market over the other if either it gave you better odds or there was more liquidity, but aside from that, they are identical if there has been 1 goal already.

I expect Psychoff is just trading these markets using a signal for whether there is going to be another goal soon or not. If there is a signal for a goal soon, then lay. You pay a premium as the time decays with no goal, but win if a goal goes in. If there's a signal for no goal, then you back, gain profit slowly due to time decay, and then trade out if the signal switches to a potential goal coming.

As for how he gets his signals, I think he probably has live match data for things like shots on goal, corners, possession, etc... then feeds that into an algorithm to determine if a goal is more or less likely than the market is implying.

3virgul14
Posts: 64
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 8:28 am

Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:55 pm

As an insider, I can tell : you have BINGO my friend!

xitian wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:49 pm
max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
If you think about it, if the score is currently 1-0, then trading CS 1-0 and U1.5 is exactly the same thing. Backing either results in a loss if a goal goes in, or a win if there are no goals, and vice versa for laying. The prices should be identical. Often the prices might be slightly difference, but rarely (if ever) would there be a opportunity for arbitrage. You would pick one market over the other if either it gave you better odds or there was more liquidity, but aside from that, they are identical if there has been 1 goal already.

I expect Psychoff is just trading these markets using a signal for whether there is going to be another goal soon or not. If there is a signal for a goal soon, then lay. You pay a premium as the time decays with no goal, but win if a goal goes in. If there's a signal for no goal, then you back, gain profit slowly due to time decay, and then trade out if the signal switches to a potential goal coming.

As for how he gets his signals, I think he probably has live match data for things like shots on goal, corners, possession, etc... then feeds that into an algorithm to determine if a goal is more or less likely than the market is implying.

xitian
Posts: 454
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:49 pm

Oh. I better delete my post and start implementing! :lol:

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BetScalper
Posts: 870
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:04 pm

He is probably using a piece of automated software (i wont name it)

This site gives you live inplay soccer stats on everything you can think of.

Obviously its not the holy grail but it can give you certain market edges.

stu410
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 10:34 pm

Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:31 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:04 pm
He is probably using a piece of automated software (i wont name it)

This site gives you live inplay soccer stats on everything you can think of.

Obviously its not the holy grail but it can give you certain market edges.
Stay simple because he is soccer master..costum algoritm and he have a computer programmer partner.

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