Posted on: January 22nd, 2017
In the table below I have added the last 59 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1 , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals .
17-20-22
Game Pathway
18/59 FT 1-1
20/59 > 2-1 <> 17-2-1 <> home teams won 85% = 1.18 < at 2-1 Barnsley ( home to Leeds ) were offered at 1.5
21/59 1-2 <> 0-0-21 <> away teams won 100%
> 2-2 pathway <> 7/59
Summary
The opening goal by the away team in the Championship and 1-1 half time game state and in general there will not be any home bias with the pathway > 2-2 not a common event and as a result > 1-2 / 2-1 and that will in general be a signal in this profile in the Championship that the team conceding the 3rd goal are unlikely to fightback.
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Barnsley Leeds 18 1 1 H48 H54 3 2
Derby Reading 16 1 1 H63 H74 3 2
Blackburn Birmingham 3 1 1 1 1
Wigan Ipswich 7 1 1 H62 A68 2 3
Fulham Rotherham 19 1 1 H54 2 1
Blackburn Hudd 6 1 1 1 1
Brighton Villa 20 1 1 1 1
Wed Wigan 5 1 1 H62 2 1
Leeds Birmingham 15 1 1 A55 1 2
MK Dons Forest 8 1 1 A74 1 2
Cardiff Birmingham 11 1 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 1 1 A51 A57 2 3
Brentford Charlton 1 1 1 A69 1 2
Leeds Fulham 17 1 1 1 1
Boro Cardiff 20 1 1 H63 H83 3 1
Hudd Fulham 2 1 1 1 1
ipswich Preston 7 1 1 1 1
Cardiff Forest 9 1 1 1 1
Leeds Derby 13 1 1 H71 A78 2 2
Fulham Ipswich 1 1 1 A57 1 2
Fulham Brentford 18 1 1 H64 A71 2 2
Bolton Cardiff 13 1 1 A53 H71 2 3
Burnley Brighton 1 1 1 1 1
Hudd Derby 15 1 1 A48 1 2
Birmingham QPR 17 1 1 H63 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 1 1 A89 1 2
Brighton Cardiff 5 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Bolton 3 1 1 H51 H74 4 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 1 1 H53 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 1 1 H61 2 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Leeds Cardiff 14 1 1 A62 1 2
Charlton Fulham 8 1 1 1 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Millwall Huddersfield 17 1 1 A74 A86 1 3
Wolves Reading 1 1 1 A70 1 2
Huddersfield Leeds 7 1 1 A90 1 2
Huddersfield Bolton 1 1 1 H85 2 1
Blackburn Sheff Wed 3 1 1 A90 1 2
Norwich Blackburn 1 1 1 H86 H90 3 1
Blackburn Cardiff 18 1 1 1 1
Derby Watford 5 1 1 H60 A70 4 2
Derby Huddersfield 14 1 1 H50 H57 3 1
Reading Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 1
Reading Barnsley 16 1 1 A53 A57 1 3
Blackburn Leicester 20 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Blackburn 4 1 1 A55 A65 2 4
QPR Leeds 14 1 1 1 1
QPR Reading 10 1 1 A56 A58 1 3
Bolton Charlton 11 1 1 1 1
Barnsley Yeovil 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Leeds 17 1 1 A48 H70 2 4
Huddersfield Birmingham 11 1 1 A66 A81 1 3
Huddersfield Leeds 2 1 1 H63 A73 3 2
Sheff Wed Ipswich 12 1 1 1 1
Millwall Blackpool 15 1 1 H73 H74 3 1
Ipswich Boro 12 1 1 H56 H90 3 1
Bournemouth Blackpool 7 1 1 A47 1 2
Leeds Brighton 13 1 1 H90 2 1
Championship 0-1 HT added to the early away goal < game pathway analysis
in the Championship 2014-2015 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 72%, 19% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship 2014-2015 season , 65% ended a home win , 29% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% with 71% ending under 2.5 goals
in the Championship 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%
The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship last season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals
44% produced a goal 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%
> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%
> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%
The home teams won 72%, 19% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship 2014-2015 season , 65% ended a home win , 29% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% with 71% ending under 2.5 goals
in the Championship 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%
The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship last season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals
44% produced a goal 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%
> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%
> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%
Posted on: February 22nd, 2017
In the table below I have added the last 40 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;
18-12-10 <> 30% ended a draw , 1/0.3 = 9/4 +
QPR 1-1 HT > 13/8 13/10 3/1
85% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals
T HT FT
QPR Wigan 4 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Leeds 9 1 1 1 1
Newcastle QPR 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Forest 4 1 1 3 1
Hudds Bristol City 10 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Rotherham 3 1 1 2 2
Wigan Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Forest Wigan 6 1 1 4 3
Reading Brighton 2 1 1 2 2
Dons Brentford 6 1 1 1 4
Reading Hull 4 1 1 1 2
Rotherham Hudds 10 1 1 1 1
Hull Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Bolton Rotherham 2 1 1 2 1
Wolves Leeds 10 1 1 2 3
Burnley Sheff Wed 7 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 1 1 1 1
Ipswich Brentford 9 1 1 1 1
Brentford Huddersfield 4 1 1 4 1
Bournemouth Wolves 10 1 1 2 1
Brighton Birmingham 8 1 1 4 3
Fulham Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Boro Charlton 6 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Watford 2 1 1 2 1
Huddersfiled Brighton 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Wigan 8 1 1 2 1
Charlton Yeovil 10 1 1 3 2
Leicester Sheff Wed 10 1 1 2 1
Watford Blackburn 4 1 1 3 3
Burnley Blackpool 7 1 1 2 1
Millwall Forest 8 1 1 2 2
ipswich Blackburn 4 1 1 3 1
Wolves Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 3
Millwall Sheff Wed 2 1 1 1 2
Charlton Brighton 9 1 1 2 2
Sheff Wed Bristol City 3 1 1 2 3
Sheff Wed Watford 3 1 1 1 4
Wolves Forest 5 1 1 1 2
Watord Boro 1 1 1 1 2
Bristol City Blackburn 1 1 1 3 5
In the table below I have added the last 40 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;
18-12-10 <> 30% ended a draw , 1/0.3 = 9/4 +
QPR 1-1 HT > 13/8 13/10 3/1
85% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals
T HT FT
QPR Wigan 4 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Leeds 9 1 1 1 1
Newcastle QPR 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Forest 4 1 1 3 1
Hudds Bristol City 10 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Rotherham 3 1 1 2 2
Wigan Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Forest Wigan 6 1 1 4 3
Reading Brighton 2 1 1 2 2
Dons Brentford 6 1 1 1 4
Reading Hull 4 1 1 1 2
Rotherham Hudds 10 1 1 1 1
Hull Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Bolton Rotherham 2 1 1 2 1
Wolves Leeds 10 1 1 2 3
Burnley Sheff Wed 7 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 1 1 1 1
Ipswich Brentford 9 1 1 1 1
Brentford Huddersfield 4 1 1 4 1
Bournemouth Wolves 10 1 1 2 1
Brighton Birmingham 8 1 1 4 3
Fulham Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Boro Charlton 6 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Watford 2 1 1 2 1
Huddersfiled Brighton 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Wigan 8 1 1 2 1
Charlton Yeovil 10 1 1 3 2
Leicester Sheff Wed 10 1 1 2 1
Watford Blackburn 4 1 1 3 3
Burnley Blackpool 7 1 1 2 1
Millwall Forest 8 1 1 2 2
ipswich Blackburn 4 1 1 3 1
Wolves Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 3
Millwall Sheff Wed 2 1 1 1 2
Charlton Brighton 9 1 1 2 2
Sheff Wed Bristol City 3 1 1 2 3
Sheff Wed Watford 3 1 1 1 4
Wolves Forest 5 1 1 1 2
Watord Boro 1 1 1 1 2
Bristol City Blackburn 1 1 1 3 5
Posted on: August 18th, 2016
In the table below I have added all the games since 2011-2012 in the Championship where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , and 38% ended over 2.5 goals (13/8 )
The home teams won 64%, 27% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% , some expectation of the away teams fighting back but lowered expectation of the away teams winning.
The home team scored the second goal of the game in 37%, no second goal in 22% and the away teams scored the second goal of the game in 41%
24% ( 22/91 ) of the games followed the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and of the 22 games that followed that pathway , 8/22 ( 36% ) ended 1-1 .
In the table below I have added all the games since 2011-2012 in the Championship where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , and 38% ended over 2.5 goals (13/8 )
The home teams won 64%, 27% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% , some expectation of the away teams fighting back but lowered expectation of the away teams winning.
The home team scored the second goal of the game in 37%, no second goal in 22% and the away teams scored the second goal of the game in 41%
24% ( 22/91 ) of the games followed the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and of the 22 games that followed that pathway , 8/22 ( 36% ) ended 1-1 .