Just a quick question from a newbie trader.
What are the chances of a football team playing two 0-0 games back to back?
Are there statistics on these kinds of scores?
Cheers
Chances of two 0-0 games in a row.
The chance, in general, of a 0-0 is around 8%, so that would be decimal odds of 12.50.
The chance of two 0-0's in a row is actually worked out as follows
If the chance of 0-0 is 8% then the chance of not being a 0-0 is 92%. The chance of not being two 0-0 results in a row is .92*.92 = 0.8464 so the chance of at least one is 1-0.8464 = 15.36%
Two in a row is .08^2 or 0.0064 or .64%
The chance of two 0-0's in a row is actually worked out as follows
If the chance of 0-0 is 8% then the chance of not being a 0-0 is 92%. The chance of not being two 0-0 results in a row is .92*.92 = 0.8464 so the chance of at least one is 1-0.8464 = 15.36%
Two in a row is .08^2 or 0.0064 or .64%
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I wish it was, but the chance of two 0-0's in a row is actually 8%^2 = 0.64% or decimal 12.5^2Euler wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:29 pmThe chance, in general, of a 0-0 is around 8%, so that would be decimal odds of 12.50.
The chance of two 0-0's in a row is actually worked out as follows
If the chance of 0-0 is 8% then the chance of not being a 0-0 is 92%. The chance of not being two 0-0 results in a row is .92*.92 = 0.8464 so therefore the chance of two 0-0's is 1-0.8464 or 15.36%
22 nil-nils from 330 matches so far in the PL...a skinny 6.6%. So maybe as low as 0.44% in the top flight.
Isn't yours the chance that either of them are 0-0 ? ie not (not 0-0 and not 0-0)
I'm getting severe cognative dissonance, I'm sure I'm right, but I'm contradicting 'the man', so I can't be. It's making me feel dizzy
If I'm right, surely that's got to be worth a mug?
Stats is such a minefield. I've given the chance of no 0-0's in two matches, rather than two in a row. As two in a row would be .08^2
I was working on another problem at the time and misread the original question. I've edited my response!
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Try not to be too scrambled Renton, it's just an accumulator.
Odds = 100 / %Chance ....(100/8% = 12.5)
% Chance = 100 / Odds ....(100/12.5 = 8%)
To accumulate the odds simply multiply them together.
2 in a row = Odds^2
5 in a row = Odds^5
10 in a row = Odds^10
Or if you wanted a nil-nil and a not nil-nil, that would be
0.08 *0.92 = 0.074 (7.4%)
100/7.4 = 13.6 decimal
I am going to assume you are looking at laying the draw before a game starts and are worried about 0-0 FT
“Goals: More goals mean more chances to trade out with a profit. You are always going to hit the odd 0-0 draw, but aim for plenty of goals and you will minimise losing trades. Recent form is a great indicator, making sure that teams you’re banking on have been scoring goals. ”
Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( GAME STATE ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal with reference to accuracy as time decays in the game.
” I have been forced to tackle the evolution of the Betfair match odds markets, ensuring that lay the draw is still a profitable trading strategy to use.
In order to reduce liability and increase profit margins, I set out to develop first half and second half lay the draw strategies. First half LTD is more difficult to get right because teams don’t have to score, but the market knows that so prices are reduced accordingly.
Kevin further developed these first and second half strategies by taking advantage of goal windows.
I also developed and tested a ‘full match’ lay the draw strategy.
It is higher risk than first or second half lay the draw and that doesn’t suit all types of trader
Rather than the traditional LTD method with its squeezed margins, this new version specifically looks for matches which are likely to go 2-0 and bank a much bigger profit ”
The thought process that a high % of games in football end a draw because of teams fighting back ( > 1-1 ) is flawed and the actual reason is because football in general will produce a low goal production hence the draw bias with the caveat that an early goal metric could result in expectation of acceleration of goal production which may lower expectation of a draw.
If you are at a trading seminar / trading room discussing which games are likely to go from 0-1/1-0 to 2-0/0-2 , this area is known as GAME PATHWAY ANALYSIS
For example last season in the Premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway was just as likely as > 0-2 pathway .
6/63 0-1 FT
29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%
28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%
We can look at the % of draws in the Premier League in games where the away teams open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% ( 08-09-15-16 )
What if the early away goal game in the Premier League is 0-1 half time in terms of expectation of draw bias ?
26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19% ( 08-09-15-16 )
Do you look to lay the draw late in games in an attempt to bag a late goal ?
42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% ( goal % 80+ in games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minute time band )
“Goals: More goals mean more chances to trade out with a profit. You are always going to hit the odd 0-0 draw, but aim for plenty of goals and you will minimise losing trades. Recent form is a great indicator, making sure that teams you’re banking on have been scoring goals. ”
Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( GAME STATE ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal with reference to accuracy as time decays in the game.
” I have been forced to tackle the evolution of the Betfair match odds markets, ensuring that lay the draw is still a profitable trading strategy to use.
In order to reduce liability and increase profit margins, I set out to develop first half and second half lay the draw strategies. First half LTD is more difficult to get right because teams don’t have to score, but the market knows that so prices are reduced accordingly.
Kevin further developed these first and second half strategies by taking advantage of goal windows.
I also developed and tested a ‘full match’ lay the draw strategy.
It is higher risk than first or second half lay the draw and that doesn’t suit all types of trader
Rather than the traditional LTD method with its squeezed margins, this new version specifically looks for matches which are likely to go 2-0 and bank a much bigger profit ”
The thought process that a high % of games in football end a draw because of teams fighting back ( > 1-1 ) is flawed and the actual reason is because football in general will produce a low goal production hence the draw bias with the caveat that an early goal metric could result in expectation of acceleration of goal production which may lower expectation of a draw.
If you are at a trading seminar / trading room discussing which games are likely to go from 0-1/1-0 to 2-0/0-2 , this area is known as GAME PATHWAY ANALYSIS
For example last season in the Premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway was just as likely as > 0-2 pathway .
6/63 0-1 FT
29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%
28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%
We can look at the % of draws in the Premier League in games where the away teams open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% ( 08-09-15-16 )
What if the early away goal game in the Premier League is 0-1 half time in terms of expectation of draw bias ?
26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19% ( 08-09-15-16 )
Do you look to lay the draw late in games in an attempt to bag a late goal ?
42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% ( goal % 80+ in games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minute time band )
I once traded 3 matches plus one preiod of extra time in a row without seeing a single goal. I make money out of goals so was pretty pissed off, felt like they'd changed the rules of football for a while. Anyway I guess the lesson is that if you trade enough markets seemingly extremely unlikely events can and do happen so you need to learn to accept them.