what we want to do is to use survival analysis in a game of football to define expectation of the home team in this profile in Brazil Serie B holding onto the lead >
we simply map out the game pathway in the 2nd half >
43-7-0
GAME PATHWAY
10/50 FT 1-0
29/50 > 2-0
11/50 > 1-1
this is a monster in play edge < you have defined in this profile in Brazil Serie B that contrary to the mainstream belief < the team losing by one goal are NOT 6% more likely to score the next goal >
your next task is to look at individual leagues and the major half time game states added to the time of the opening goal
you should note that the away team winning the 2nd half of the game in this profile in Brazil serie B < 2nd half betting will be a rare event simply because > 1-1 will be far less likely then 1-0 FT and > 2-0