Where Have All the Goals Gone in the Bundesliga? response to Rory Smith of the New York Times ; ” Packing “
Posted on: April 9th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/spor ... .html?_r=0
Is Bundesliga average goal production a season in decline ?
This season in the Bundesliga the average goal production per game is 2.76 , last season 2.83, 2014-2015 2.75 2013-2014 3.16
Rory Smith advised that there has been a “subtle shift” in goal production in the Bundesliga when he simply wanted to discuss a new football metric
“Much of its work has focused on a metric it has developed called “packing,” which counts the number of players taken out of the game — outplayed, as Impect calls it — by a particular move, be it a dribble or a pass.”
Mr Smith et al have failed to acknowledge that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays.
In general the opening goal by the away team in the Bundesliga in the 0-20 minutes time band will result in acceleration of goal production and a high early away goal production in a season will raise the average goal production for the season.
2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014
Games 52 43 56
Over 2.5 75% 74% 80%
Over 3.5 56% 47% 61%
In the table above I have added all the games in the Bundesliga in the last 3 completed seasons where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define the % that ended over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals.
This season in Bundesliga in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;
2-3 0-2 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-4 1-1 2-5 1-3 0-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-3 1-5 1-3 3-1 0-2 <> 33 games with an average goal production of 3.24
Summary
In Bundesliga this season compared to previous seasons we are seeing a lower early away goal game production which as a result has effected the average goal production for the season.
after I wrote that blog response < we had a load of early goal games that produced a load of goals in Bundesliga
The Effect of the opening goal by the Home Team in Brazil Serie B in the 21-30 Minutes Time Band added to 1-0 Half Time
2016-2017 season in the Bundesliga where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes,
70% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
8-13-25 > away teams won 54%
GAME PATHWAY
2/46 0-1 FT
26/46 > 1-1 8-12-6 >away teams won 23%
18/46 > 0-2 0-1-17 > away teams won 94%
70% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
8-13-25 > away teams won 54%
GAME PATHWAY
2/46 0-1 FT
26/46 > 1-1 8-12-6 >away teams won 23%
18/46 > 0-2 0-1-17 > away teams won 94%
Vasco da Gama
2 - 5
Corinthians View events More info
0 - 1
3' Marquinhos Gabriel
0 - 2
39' Jô
Luís Fabiano 46'
1 - 2
Luís Fabiano 48'
2 - 2
2 - 3
58' Maycon
2 - 4
84' Clayton
2 - 5
90' Clayton
how boring was this game ? > how does the time of the opening goal in an individual league effect accuracy as time decays ?
2 - 5
Corinthians View events More info
0 - 1
3' Marquinhos Gabriel
0 - 2
39' Jô
Luís Fabiano 46'
1 - 2
Luís Fabiano 48'
2 - 2
2 - 3
58' Maycon
2 - 4
84' Clayton
2 - 5
90' Clayton
how boring was this game ? > how does the time of the opening goal in an individual league effect accuracy as time decays ?
Vila Nova
2 - 0
América Mineiro
Alípio 3'
1 - 0
Geovane 90'
2 - 0
Criciúma
1 - 0
CRB
Caio 10'
1 - 0
Oeste
2 - 0
CRB
Júlio César 8'
1 - 0
Alexandro 82'
2 - 0
Guarani
2 - 0
Figueirense
Bruno Nazário 7'
1 - 0
Caique 77'
2 - 0
Santa Cruz
2 - 1
Guarani
Halef 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
79' Eliandro
Ricardo Bueno 84'
2 - 1
Guarani
2 - 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Eliandro 8'
1 - 0
Eliandro 54'
2 - 0
Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Oeste
Diogo Oliveira (PG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
90′ Marcus Vinícius
Joinville
1 – 0
Paraná
Fernando Viana 9′
1 – 0
Avaí
2 – 0
Goiás
Vitor 9′
1 – 0
Renato 90′
2 – 0
Londrina
1 – 0
Bahia
Anderson Leite 8′
1 – 0
Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Ederson 8′
1 – 0
Ederson 78′
2 – 0
Criciúma
4 – 0
Oeste
Douglas Moreira 10′
1 – 0
Diego Giaretta 60′
2 – 0
Jheimy 64′
3 – 0
Caique Valdivia 68′
4 – 0
Tupi
1 – 1
Londrina
Octávio 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
85′ Safira
Atlético GO
2 – 0
Luverdense
Júnior Viçosa 10′
1 – 0
Michel 56′
2 – 0
Luverdense
4 – 0
Bragantino
Luiz Otavio 9′
1 – 0
Hugo 53′
2 – 0
Hugo 56′
3 – 0
Hugo (PG) 72′
4 – 0
Paysandu
2 – 0
Ceará
Gilvan 5′
1 – 0
Gilvan 66′
2 – 0
Bragantino
2 – 0
Joinville
Rafael Grampola 4′
1 – 0
Gabriel Dias 90′
2 – 0
Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Nenê 10′
1 – 0
Luan Garcia 71′
2 – 0
Ceará
1 – 0
Bahia
Rafael Costa 4′
1 – 0
Paysandu
1 – 0
Joinville
Jhonnatan 2′
1 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Luverdense
Ramon 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ Jean Patrick
Tupi
5 – 1
Paysandu
Thiago Silvy 4′
1 – 0
Vinicius Kiss 62′
2 – 0
Marcos Serrato 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ Lucas
Recife 90′
4 – 1
Vinicius Kiss 90′
5 – 1
Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Bragantino
Felipe Gonçalves 8′
1 – 0
Ramon 57′
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Paraná
Felipe Gonçalves 6′
1 – 0
Felipe Gonçalves 69′
2 – 0
Vila Nova
3 – 1
Bragantino
Robston 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ Eliandro
Thiago Brito 59′
2 – 1
Robston 67′
3 – 1
Oeste
1 - 1
Criciúma
Ligger 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Maurinho
Vitória
2 - 1
Boa
Elton 9'
1 - 0
D. Escudero 56'
2 - 0
2 - 1
61' Felipe Alves
Bragantino
2 - 2
Macaé
Frauches (OG) 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
55' Gedeil
Alan Mineiro (PG) 67'
2 - 1
2 - 2
78' Pipico
Paraná
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Rafael Costa 8'
1 - 0
Vitória
4 - 1
Bahia
Guilherme Mattis 5'
1 - 0
D. Escudero (PG) 64'
2 - 0
Rogerio 82'
3 - 0
3 - 1
87' M. Biancucchi
Robert 90'
4 - 1
América Mineiro
1 - 0
Atlético GO
Mancini (PG) 2'
1 - 0
Náutico
1 - 1
Paysandu
Pedro Carmona 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
61' Yago Picachu
Atlético GO
2 - 0
Náutico
Juninho 6'
1 - 0
Arthur 53'
2 - 0
Náutico
2 - 0
Ceará
Ronaldo Alves (PG) 3'
1 - 0
Willian Magrão 51'
2 - 0
Vitória
4 - 1
Bragantino
D. Escudero 8'
1 - 0
Elton 47'
2 - 0
Rogerio 51'
3 - 0
3 - 1
74' Chico
Diogo Mateus 86'
4 - 1
Ceará
2 - 1
Portuguesa
Sandro 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Jussa
Brinner (OG) 64'
2 - 1
Boa
1 - 0
Oeste
Fernando Karanga 10'
1 - 0
Joinville
1 - 0
Bragantino
Rogerio 4'
1 - 0
Boa
3 - 0
Vila Nova
Fernando Karanga 3'
1 - 0
Fernando Karanga 56'
2 - 0
Tomas Bastos 82'
3 - 0
Náutico
2 - 1
ABC
Sassá 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
50' Rodrigo Silva
Sassá (PG) 86'
2 - 1
ABC
2 - 1
Santa Cruz
Somália 5'
1 - 0
Sueliton 49'
2 - 0
2 - 1
73' Léo Gamalho
Santa Cruz
2 - 0
Atlético GO
Wescley 8'
1 - 0
Pingo 90'
2 - 0
Oeste
2 - 1
Boa
Serginho 2'
1 - 0
Serginho 54'
2 - 0
2 - 1
80' Clébson
América Mineiro
2 - 0
Luverdense
Mancini 9'
1 - 0
Obina 51'
2 - 0
Ponte Preta
2 - 0
Joinville
Roni 7'
1 - 0
Rodinei 89'
2 - 0
ABC
1 - 1
Náutico
Lúcio Flávio 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Paulinho
Paraná
2 - 0
Náutico
Giancarlo 7'
1 - 0
Leonardo Luiz (OG) 53'
2 - 0
ABC
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Dênis Marques 10'
1 - 0
Vasco da Gama
3 - 0
Atlético GO
Douglas 4'
1 - 0
Marlon 71'
2 - 0
Marlon 88'
3 - 0
Bragantino
2 - 0
Atlético GO View events More info
Lincom 4'
1 - 0
Cesinha 62'
2 - 0
2 - 0
América Mineiro
Alípio 3'
1 - 0
Geovane 90'
2 - 0
Criciúma
1 - 0
CRB
Caio 10'
1 - 0
Oeste
2 - 0
CRB
Júlio César 8'
1 - 0
Alexandro 82'
2 - 0
Guarani
2 - 0
Figueirense
Bruno Nazário 7'
1 - 0
Caique 77'
2 - 0
Santa Cruz
2 - 1
Guarani
Halef 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
79' Eliandro
Ricardo Bueno 84'
2 - 1
Guarani
2 - 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Eliandro 8'
1 - 0
Eliandro 54'
2 - 0
Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Oeste
Diogo Oliveira (PG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
90′ Marcus Vinícius
Joinville
1 – 0
Paraná
Fernando Viana 9′
1 – 0
Avaí
2 – 0
Goiás
Vitor 9′
1 – 0
Renato 90′
2 – 0
Londrina
1 – 0
Bahia
Anderson Leite 8′
1 – 0
Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Ederson 8′
1 – 0
Ederson 78′
2 – 0
Criciúma
4 – 0
Oeste
Douglas Moreira 10′
1 – 0
Diego Giaretta 60′
2 – 0
Jheimy 64′
3 – 0
Caique Valdivia 68′
4 – 0
Tupi
1 – 1
Londrina
Octávio 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
85′ Safira
Atlético GO
2 – 0
Luverdense
Júnior Viçosa 10′
1 – 0
Michel 56′
2 – 0
Luverdense
4 – 0
Bragantino
Luiz Otavio 9′
1 – 0
Hugo 53′
2 – 0
Hugo 56′
3 – 0
Hugo (PG) 72′
4 – 0
Paysandu
2 – 0
Ceará
Gilvan 5′
1 – 0
Gilvan 66′
2 – 0
Bragantino
2 – 0
Joinville
Rafael Grampola 4′
1 – 0
Gabriel Dias 90′
2 – 0
Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Nenê 10′
1 – 0
Luan Garcia 71′
2 – 0
Ceará
1 – 0
Bahia
Rafael Costa 4′
1 – 0
Paysandu
1 – 0
Joinville
Jhonnatan 2′
1 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Luverdense
Ramon 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ Jean Patrick
Tupi
5 – 1
Paysandu
Thiago Silvy 4′
1 – 0
Vinicius Kiss 62′
2 – 0
Marcos Serrato 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ Lucas
Recife 90′
4 – 1
Vinicius Kiss 90′
5 – 1
Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Bragantino
Felipe Gonçalves 8′
1 – 0
Ramon 57′
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Paraná
Felipe Gonçalves 6′
1 – 0
Felipe Gonçalves 69′
2 – 0
Vila Nova
3 – 1
Bragantino
Robston 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ Eliandro
Thiago Brito 59′
2 – 1
Robston 67′
3 – 1
Oeste
1 - 1
Criciúma
Ligger 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Maurinho
Vitória
2 - 1
Boa
Elton 9'
1 - 0
D. Escudero 56'
2 - 0
2 - 1
61' Felipe Alves
Bragantino
2 - 2
Macaé
Frauches (OG) 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
55' Gedeil
Alan Mineiro (PG) 67'
2 - 1
2 - 2
78' Pipico
Paraná
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Rafael Costa 8'
1 - 0
Vitória
4 - 1
Bahia
Guilherme Mattis 5'
1 - 0
D. Escudero (PG) 64'
2 - 0
Rogerio 82'
3 - 0
3 - 1
87' M. Biancucchi
Robert 90'
4 - 1
América Mineiro
1 - 0
Atlético GO
Mancini (PG) 2'
1 - 0
Náutico
1 - 1
Paysandu
Pedro Carmona 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
61' Yago Picachu
Atlético GO
2 - 0
Náutico
Juninho 6'
1 - 0
Arthur 53'
2 - 0
Náutico
2 - 0
Ceará
Ronaldo Alves (PG) 3'
1 - 0
Willian Magrão 51'
2 - 0
Vitória
4 - 1
Bragantino
D. Escudero 8'
1 - 0
Elton 47'
2 - 0
Rogerio 51'
3 - 0
3 - 1
74' Chico
Diogo Mateus 86'
4 - 1
Ceará
2 - 1
Portuguesa
Sandro 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Jussa
Brinner (OG) 64'
2 - 1
Boa
1 - 0
Oeste
Fernando Karanga 10'
1 - 0
Joinville
1 - 0
Bragantino
Rogerio 4'
1 - 0
Boa
3 - 0
Vila Nova
Fernando Karanga 3'
1 - 0
Fernando Karanga 56'
2 - 0
Tomas Bastos 82'
3 - 0
Náutico
2 - 1
ABC
Sassá 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
50' Rodrigo Silva
Sassá (PG) 86'
2 - 1
ABC
2 - 1
Santa Cruz
Somália 5'
1 - 0
Sueliton 49'
2 - 0
2 - 1
73' Léo Gamalho
Santa Cruz
2 - 0
Atlético GO
Wescley 8'
1 - 0
Pingo 90'
2 - 0
Oeste
2 - 1
Boa
Serginho 2'
1 - 0
Serginho 54'
2 - 0
2 - 1
80' Clébson
América Mineiro
2 - 0
Luverdense
Mancini 9'
1 - 0
Obina 51'
2 - 0
Ponte Preta
2 - 0
Joinville
Roni 7'
1 - 0
Rodinei 89'
2 - 0
ABC
1 - 1
Náutico
Lúcio Flávio 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Paulinho
Paraná
2 - 0
Náutico
Giancarlo 7'
1 - 0
Leonardo Luiz (OG) 53'
2 - 0
ABC
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Dênis Marques 10'
1 - 0
Vasco da Gama
3 - 0
Atlético GO
Douglas 4'
1 - 0
Marlon 71'
2 - 0
Marlon 88'
3 - 0
Bragantino
2 - 0
Atlético GO View events More info
Lincom 4'
1 - 0
Cesinha 62'
2 - 0
Last edited by jonnyg on Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
Above we have a sample of 50 games in Brazil Serie B where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 half time game state ;
what we want to do is to use survival analysis in a game of football to define expectation of the home team in this profile in Brazil Serie B holding onto the lead >
we simply map out the game pathway in the 2nd half >
43-7-0
GAME PATHWAY
10/50 FT 1-0
29/50 > 2-0
11/50 > 1-1
this is a monster in play edge < you have defined in this profile in Brazil Serie B that contrary to the mainstream belief < the team losing by one goal are NOT 6% more likely to score the next goal >
your next task is to look at individual leagues and the major half time game states added to the time of the opening goal
you should note that the away team winning the 2nd half of the game in this profile in Brazil serie B < 2nd half betting will be a rare event simply because > 1-1 will be far less likely then 1-0 FT and > 2-0
what we want to do is to use survival analysis in a game of football to define expectation of the home team in this profile in Brazil Serie B holding onto the lead >
we simply map out the game pathway in the 2nd half >
43-7-0
GAME PATHWAY
10/50 FT 1-0
29/50 > 2-0
11/50 > 1-1
this is a monster in play edge < you have defined in this profile in Brazil Serie B that contrary to the mainstream belief < the team losing by one goal are NOT 6% more likely to score the next goal >
your next task is to look at individual leagues and the major half time game states added to the time of the opening goal
you should note that the away team winning the 2nd half of the game in this profile in Brazil serie B < 2nd half betting will be a rare event simply because > 1-1 will be far less likely then 1-0 FT and > 2-0