Survival Analysis used in football ; " the effect of the fightback metric "

[jonnyg]

In basic terms survival analysis in football looks at the ability of a team to a hold their advantage when they open the scoring in a game / the ability of the other team to come back from a one goal deficit when they concede the opening goal .

An area that I have looked at is 1-0 /0-1 half time game state ( current score ) with the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band >

If we look at the MLS for example in games 0-1 HT added to the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band we see very high expectation of a further goal(s) so in effect the > 1-1 pathway is acting as a catalyst for further goal(s) in this profile in the MLS

If we look at New York City
2 - 1
Seattle Sounders View events More info
0 - 1
40' C. Roldan
David Villa (PG) 52'
1 - 1
David Villa 77'
2 - 1


on 74 minutes over 2.5 goals was offered at 5/6 < and if you look at the last 21 games that fit this profile a high % of third goals were scored late in the game

[jonnyg]

New York City
2 - 1
Seattle Sounders View events More info
0 - 1
40' C. Roldan
David Villa (PG) 52'
1 - 1
David Villa 77'
2 - 1


Colorado Rapids
2 - 1
Portland Timbers
0 - 1
18' S. Blanco
D. Badji 51'
1 - 1
A. Gordon 89'
2 - 1

New York RB
2 – 1
New England
0 – 1
9′ L. Nguyen (PG)
B. Wright-Phillips 47′
1 – 1
D. Royer 74′
2 – 1

Minnesota United
1 – 2
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
38′ G. dos Santos
C. Ramírez 66′
1 – 1
1 – 2
84′ C. Ramírez (OG)

Philadelphia Union
2 – 1
Colorado Rapids
0 – 1
15′ C. Calvert
C. Sapong (PG) 67′
1 – 1
H. Medunjanin 75′
2 – 1

Dallas
2 – 2
Portland Timbers
0 – 1
30′ F. Adi
M. Urruti 61′
1 – 1
1 – 2
71′ S. Blanco
T. Akindele 80′
2 – 2

Colorado Rapids
1 – 1
Houston Dynamo
0 – 1
20′ A. Wenger
S. Gashi 67′
1 – 1

Chicago Fire
2 – 2
Columbus Crew
0 – 1
13′ A. Jahn
M. Parkhurst (OG) 53′
1 – 1
M. de Leeuw 57′
2 – 1
2 – 2
80′ A. Jahn

Vancouver Whit…
3 – 3
Colorado Rapids
0 – 1
8′ D. Badji
K. Waston 51′
1 – 1
1 – 2
57′ S. Gashi (PG)
P. Morales 70′
2 – 2
2 – 3
75′ S. Gashi
E. Hurtado 90′
3 – 3

Toronto
1 – 1
Philadelphia Union
0 – 1
25′ A. Bedoya
J. Morrow 70′
1 – 1

Sporting KC
2 – 2
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
7′ A. Gordon
J. Peterson 50′
1 – 1
D. Dwyer 69′
2 – 1
2 – 2
76′ L. Donovan

Real Salt Lake
3 – 3
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
6′ E. Boateng
J. Plata (PG) 53′
1 – 1
1 – 2
57′ G. dos Santos
1 – 3
64′ G. dos Santos
J. Plata 67′
2 – 3
J. Martínez 90′
3 – 3

Orlando City
1 – 2
Toronto
0 – 1
7′ T. Ricketts
C. Larin 56′
1 – 1
1 – 2
86′ J. Altidore

Columbus Crew
3 – 3
New York City
0 – 1
41′ F. Lampard
Justin Meram 49′
1 – 1
E. Finlay (PG) 80′
2 – 1
2 – 2
83′ David Villa
2 – 3
90′ David Villa (PG)
E. Finlay 90′
3 – 3

Orlando City
3 – 1
New England
0 – 1
19′ K. Kamara
C. Larin 46′
1 – 1
K. Molino 64′
2 – 1
K. Molino 83′
3 – 1

Sporting KC
3 – 2
Columbus Crew
0 – 1
22′ O. Kamara
B. Feilhaber (PG) 49′
1 – 1
G. Zusi 56′
2 – 1
2 – 2
75′ O. Kamara
M. Besler 90′
3 – 2

Real Salt Lake
2 – 1
New York RB
0 – 1
7′ G. Baah
Y. Movsisyan 65′
1 – 1
J. Allen 87′
2 – 1

Vancouver Whit…
1 – 1
Houston Dynamo
0 – 1
20′ D. Beasley
O. Rivero 52′
1 – 1

Portland Timbers
1 – 2
New York City
0 – 1
12′ David Villa
F. Adi 55′
1 – 1
1 – 2
65′ T. McNamara

Dallas
2 – 1
Portland Timbers
0 – 1
3′ D. Váleri
R. Hollingshead 55′
1 – 1
W. Zimmerman 57′
2 – 1

Vancouver Whit…
2 – 1
Portland Timbers
0 – 1
34′ N. Borchers
M. Kudo 60′
1 – 1
C. Bolaños 66′
2 – 1

[jonnyg]

the last 21 games in MLS where the away team winning 1-0 HT game state > 1-1 with 2nd goal 46-70 minutes and 18/21 ended over 2.5 goals

9-9-3 < lowered expectation of an away win < this lowered expectation of an away win in this profile in MLS is not a short term trend as i have checked back over a larger sample >

in effect at 1-1 in this profile in the MLS < you have a signal in play that the away team which have given up their one goal advantage ( survival analysis ) are unlikely to repeat the process for a 2nd time <

[jonnyg]

the data below is correct to May 27th >

We can now look at 0-1 half time in the MLS added to the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band added to the home fightback in the 2nd half > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < you will see that 1-1 FT is a rare event which you can exploit by laying the draw at 1-1 / backing over 2.5 goals and then at 2-1/1-2 trading out of the DRAW

last 30 > 80% ended over 2.5 goals

15-11-4 lowered expectation of an away win with high expectation of over 2.5 goals.

47% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

New York RB
2 – 1
New England
0 – 1
9′ L. Nguyen (PG)
B. Wright-Phillips 47′
1 – 1
D. Royer 74′
2 – 1

Philadelphia Union
2 – 1
Colorado Rapids
0 – 1
15′ C. Calvert
C. Sapong (PG) 67′
1 – 1
H. Medunjanin 75′
2 – 1

Colorado Rapids
1 – 1
Houston Dynamo
0 – 1
20′ A. Wenger
S. Gashi 67′
1 – 1

Chicago Fire
2 – 2
Columbus Crew
0 – 1
13′ A. Jahn
M. Parkhurst (OG) 53′
1 – 1
M. de Leeuw 57′
2 – 1
2 – 2
80′ A. Jahn

Vancouver Whit…
3 – 3
Colorado Rapids
0 – 1
8′ D. Badji
K. Waston 51′
1 – 1
1 – 2
57′ S. Gashi (PG)
P. Morales 70′
2 – 2
2 – 3
75′ S. Gashi
E. Hurtado 90′
3 – 3

Sporting KC
2 – 2
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
7′ A. Gordon
J. Peterson 50′
1 – 1
D. Dwyer 69′
2 – 1
2 – 2
76′ L. Donovan

Real Salt Lake
3 – 3
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
6′ E. Boateng
J. Plata (PG) 53′
1 – 1
1 – 2
57′ G. dos Santos
1 – 3
64′ G. dos Santos
J. Plata 67′
2 – 3
J. Martínez 90′
3 – 3

Orlando City
1 – 2
Toronto
0 – 1
7′ T. Ricketts
C. Larin 56′
1 – 1
1 – 2
86′ J. Altidore

Orlando City
3 – 1
New England
0 – 1
19′ K. Kamara
C. Larin 46′
1 – 1
K. Molino 64′
2 – 1
K. Molino 83′
3 – 1

Real Salt Lake
1 – 1
SJ Earthquakes
0 – 1
9′ C. Wondolowski
L. Mulholland 64′
1 – 1

Real Salt Lake
2 – 1
New York RB
0 – 1
7′ G. Baah
Y. Movsisyan 65′
1 – 1
J. Allen 87′
2 – 1

Vancouver Whit…
1 – 1
Houston Dynamo
0 – 1
20′ D. Beasley
O. Rivero 52′
1 – 1

Portland Timbers
1 – 2
New York City
0 – 1
12′ David Villa
F. Adi 55′
1 – 1
1 – 2
65′ T. McNamara

Dallas
2 – 1
Portland Timbers
0 – 1
3′ D. Váleri
R. Hollingshead 55′
1 – 1
W. Zimmerman 57′
2 – 1

Orlando City
1 – 1
New York RB
0 – 1
19′ B. Wright-Phillips
K. Molino 67′
1 – 1

New York RB
3 – 2
Orlando City
0 – 1
3′ C. Larin
M. Grella 65′
1 – 1
B. Wright-Phillips 69′
2 – 1
B. Wright-Phillips 75′
3 – 1
3 – 2
84′ K. Ouimette (OG)

Seattle Sounders
1 – 2
Vancouver Whit…
0 – 1
10′ P. Morales (PG)
A. Ivanschitz 52′
1 – 1
1 – 2
74′ P. Morales (PG)

LA Galaxy
4 – 1
DC United
0 – 1
5′ L. Neagle
D. Steres 54′
1 – 1
M. Magee 64′
2 – 1
R. Keane (PG) 83′
3 – 1
M. Magee 87′
4 – 1

DC United
2 – 1
New England
0 – 1
10′ C. Davies
C. Rolfe 70′
1 – 1
C. Rolfe (PG) 81′
2 – 1

Columbus Crew
1 – 1
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
14′ S. Lletget
F. Higuaín 66′
1 – 1

DC United
2 – 1
Orlando City
0 – 1
11′ C. Larin
K. Opare 70′
1 – 1
C. Rolfe 79′
2 – 1

New York RB
1 – 1
LA Galaxy
0 – 1
9′ B. Jamieson
Felipe Martins 58′
1 – 1

Chicago Fire
2 – 1
Houston Dynamo
0 – 1
18′ O. Cummings
J. Larentowicz (PG) 66′
1 – 1
F. Sinama-Pongolle 90′
2 – 1

New York RB
2 – 1
New England
0 – 1
20′ C. Davies
D. McCarty 47′
1 – 1
B. Wright-Phillips 63′
2 – 1

Seattle Sounders
2 – 1
Dallas
0 – 1
16′ Michel (PG)
L. Neagle 62′
1 – 1
K. Cooper 88′
2 – 1

Seattle Sounders
2 – 1
Philadelphia Union
0 – 1
13′ B. Evans (OG)
O. Martins 61′
1 – 1
C. Marshall 84′
2 – 1

Philadelphia Union
2 – 2
Real Salt Lake
0 – 1
6′ L. Mulholland
A. Wenger 55′
1 – 1
1 – 2
85′ K. Beckerman
M. Edu 90′
2 – 2

New England
2 – 1
DC United
0 – 1
11′ S. Caldwell (OG)
D. Fagúndez 58′
1 – 1
L. Nguyen (PG) 83′
2 – 1

Philadelphia Union
1 – 2
Chicago Fire
0 – 1
9′ P. Nyarko
S. Williams 60′
1 – 1
1 – 2
75′ M. Magee

Colorado Rapids
2 – 1
New England
0 – 1
15′ J. Toja
N. LaBrocca 62′
1 – 1
José Gonçalves (OG) 68′
2 – 1

[jonnyg]

If you trade in play you may be in a position where you are trading correct scores as time decays < well in general it is games that produce an early goal metric / and or " fightback metric " as defined above that will have a much higher expectation of a goal(s) 80 + then a game with no early goal metric / fightback metric >

in effect any pre off betting model cannot by definition react to the events that occur in a game

[jonnyg]

on a separate note > I am reading deep thinking by Garry Kasparov which discusses machines playing humans at Chess < and I had this thought <

I am aware that there are football trading houses that key what is known as " chance creaation " to model the expected goal totals in a game of football <

but has anyone simply looked at replicating the in play betting industry algorithm but without the flaw < which is simply that the in play algotithm does not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of accuracy as time decays

[jonnyg]

If we look at Spain segunda this season in terms of survival analysis < there were 40 games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway and this is going to surprise you and hopefully fuel your interest because 0/40 away wins

Spain Segunda this season in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

62% over 2.5 goals and 35% over 3.5 goals

BTTS YES 86% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in the first half in 61%

18-29-19 > away teams won 29%

35% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

3/66 0-1 FT

40/66 > 1-1 17-23-0 away teams won 0%

23/66 > 0-2 1-6-16 > away teams won 70%

[jonnyg]

Colorado Rapids
2 - 1
Portland Timbers
0 - 1
18' S. Blanco
D. Badji 51'
1 - 1
A. Gordon 89'
2 - 1


this game was played last night and if you look above < the big signal was expectation of that third goal which you could have exploited in play < via trading the correct score market / backing Colorado DNB at 1-1 with lowered expectation of an away win and backing over 2.5 goals ( drip feeding ) as time decayed in the 2nd half as a result of the home fightback