A review of Kemi V Inter Terku via Survival analysis

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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

PS Kemi
2 - 1
Inter Turku View events More info
R. Karjalainen 4'
1 - 0
R. Karjalainen 62'
2 - 0
2 - 1
88' G. Gnabouyou


Kemi opened the scoring on 4 minutes >


4/5 11/4 3/1



> 2-0 = 5/4

1-0 FT = 10/1


> 1-1 = 8/11

key points

1. what factors did the betting industry use to price Kemi at 4/5 at 1-0 and what factors did they use to price 2nd goal betting ???
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

last 35 games in Finland Veikkausliga where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

31-4-0


89% home wins 1/0.89 = 1.12


how did the goal on 4 minutes effect expectation of the away team fighting back ? :idea:
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in Finland Veikkausliiga will add even more context and will blow you mind

a monster % will produce a goal 80 + :idea:

last 34 27-6-1

PS Kemi
2 - 1
Inter Turku View events More info
R. Karjalainen 4'
1 - 0
R. Karjalainen 62'
2 - 0
2 - 1
88' G. Gnabou


Ilves
1 - 1
HJK View events More info
A. Hynynen 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
52' A. Pelvas

Lahti
1 - 0
PS Kemi View events More info
Stenio 4'
1 - 0

SJK
1 - 0
PS Kemi View events More info
T. Hradecký 4'
1 - 0


Mariehamn
2 – 1
RoPS
A. Ekhalie 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
58′ R. Taylor
J. Lyyski 64′
2 – 1

HJK
2 – 0
Ilves
A. Morelos 9′
1 – 0
A. Morelos 73′
2 – 0

Ilves
3 – 0
Mariehamn
T. Miettunen 3′
1 – 0
Y. Rahimi 50′
2 – 0
A. Ngueukam 85′
3 – 0

SJK
1 – 0
Inter Turku
B. Ions 7′
1 – 0

KuPS
3 – 0
PK-35 Vantaa
B. Diallo 10′
1 – 0
S. Jovović 85′
2 – 0
P. Pennanen 89′
3 – 0

RoPS
1 – 0
Ilves
R. Taylor 10′
1 – 0

SJK
2 – 1
HIFK
Roope Riski 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
79′ J. Mäkelä (PG)
T. Kink 89′
2 – 1

PS Kemi
1 – 0
HJK
R. Gilligan 1′
1 – 0

SJK
2 – 0
Jaro
M. Hetemaj 2′
1 – 0
Roope Riski 90′
2 – 0

KuPS
2 – 0
Jaro
J. Hakola 6′
1 – 0
U. Nissilä 83′
2 – 0

VPS
2 – 1
Jaro
A. Clennon 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
70′ A. Eremenko
T. Lahti 80′
2 – 1

Ilves
1 – 3
Mariehamn
M. Lahtinen 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
74′ P. Forsell
1 – 2
79′ D. Orgill
1 – 3
90′ D. Orgill

KuPS
3 – 0
RoPS
T. Markić 10′
1 – 0
S. Savolainen 51′
2 – 0
S. Savolainen 67′
3 – 0

HJK
2 – 1
KTP
E. Zeneli 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
48′ T. Gruborovics
O. Jallow (PG) 90′
2 – 1

Inter Turku
1 – 1
Mariehamn
J. Hämäläinen 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
87′ J. Ibrahim

Mariehamn
1 – 1
SJK
D. Tammilehto 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
71′ Toni Lehtinen (PG)

Ilves
1 – 0
Inter Turku
T. Petrescu 7′
1 – 0

RoPS
1 – 0
KuPS
F. Obilor 10′
1 – 0

Jaro
1 – 1
Lahti
J. Brunell 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
81′ A. Ristola

KTP
3 – 2
VPS
T. Gruborovics 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ J. Seabrook
V. Minkenen 66′
2 – 1
I. Äijälä 74′
3 – 1
3 – 2
89′ J. Mäkelä

HJK
2 – 0
MYPA
E. Zeneli 2′
1 – 0
N. Alho 88′
2 – 0

Lahti
1 – 1
SJK
Rafael (PG) 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
88′ J. Laaksonen

TPS
3 – 0
MYPA
M. Hyyrynen 4′
1 – 0
J. Lehtonen 60′
2 – 0
E. Tamminen 90′
3 – 0

RoPS
3 – 0
Inter Turku
J. Gay 10′
1 – 0
A. Kokko 51′
2 – 0
J. Lahdenmäki 76′
3 – 0

TPS
2 – 1
MYPA
M. Ääritalo 8′
1 – 0
J. Lehtonen 59′
2 – 0
2 – 1
87′ O. Williams

TPS
1 – 1
Inter Turku
Roope Riski 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
84′ G. Gnabouyou

MYPA
1 – 0
Jaro
O. Williams 6′
1 – 0

HJK
4 – 2
Honka
R. Lod 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ T. Väyrynen
1 – 2
59′ G. Baah
T. Tainio 66′
2 – 2
R. Lod 79′
3 – 2
R. Lod 81′
4 – 2

Jaro
2 – 1
VPS
S. Winchester 5′
1 – 0
S. Winchester 79′
2 – 0
2 – 1
87′ J. Seabrook

Lahti
3 – 0
MYPA
Rafael 4′
1 – 0
Rafael 61′
2 – 0
J. Nganbe 90′
3 – 0
Last edited by jonnyg on Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

look above

Only 6/ 34 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band


summary

as time decayed = low expectation of away team fighting back but at 1-0 they were odds on to score goal 2

i have spotted a massive flaw in the in play betting algorithm that the betting industry use :idea:
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