In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

[jonnyg]

Celta early away goal and > 1-1

on 40 minutes we have the following prices >

6/4 8/5 13/5

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .

29-11-10 home teams won 58%

GAME PATHWAY

6/50 1-1 FT

> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%

> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%

3/50 ended 2-2

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

[jonnyg]

1'
Mateo Cassierra
1 - 0
12'
Robert Muric
2 - 0
52'
Robert Muric
3 - 0
57'

3 - 1
Perr Schuurs
60'

3 - 2
Lisandro Semedo
75'
Dennis Johnsen
4 - 2

in 2014 the racing post advised that the opening goal on 1 minute does not lead to a landslide of goals

in general it does

[jonnyg]

Go Ahead Eagles
1 - 1
NEC View events More info
0 - 1
11' S. Braken
S. Hendriks 14'
1 - 1

this game not in line with expectation


Last 50 games in Holland Jupiler where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT

20-17-13 > away teams won 26%

1/0,26% = 3.85

42/50 over 2.5 goals = 84% , 1/0.84 = 1.19

50% over 3.5 goals = Evens

30% over 4.5 goals = 3.33

average goal production = 3.74

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

you will not find better free in play analysis on social media > I am a genius <

[jonnyg]

what is incredible > the betting industry in play algorithm does not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal added to game state

at HT no 3rd goal was offered at 5/2 < given events of first half = 85% + expectation of over 2.5 goals

> when you look at 1-1 Ht spreadsheets = useless if you dont factor which team opened the scoring and the time of the opening goal <

[jonnyg]

If you can match my in play level then feel free to join me on this thread <

[jonnyg]

Celta early away goal and > 1-1

on 40 minutes we have the following prices >

6/4 8/5 13/5

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .

29-11-10 home teams won 58%

GAME PATHWAY

6/50 1-1 FT

> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%

> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%

3/50 ended 2-2

2-1

[jonnyg]

a very good evening of in play analysis .

taking some time off but will back soon >

[Euler]

Feel free to post on your own thread, but please stop trying to highjack others and mass copying and pasting the same info. People can decide if they want to read this thread or not and you can encourage that by posting decent content. But if you highjack other threads and try and drown out discussion the moderators will ban you.

[jonnyg]

LeTiss wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:59 pm
That's a lovely touch there JonnyG - Wacker now 3-0 up

indeed

next I advised Betis draw no bet at HT

Real Betis
2 - 1
Celta de Vigo View events More info
0 - 1
10' M. Gómez
Sergio León 31'
1 - 1
Z. Feddal 77'
2 - 1

have a look at the opening goal by away team in La Liga 0-20 minutes and 1-1 HT >

1. lowered expectation of an away win >

2. if goes to > 2-1 pathway = monster high % end a home win

3. 2-2 FT in this profile is very rare >



consider how many people are offering free in play analysis on social media at such a high level for free > I think I am the only one

I gave 100% winners last night and Pete is not happy my mate Dave was delighted

back in a few weeks > love you

[Sovereign]

You mean unlike the high quality thread *and discussion* on this very forum, with data provided? It seems very foolish to poke PW when he owns this site.

Please come back with some humility and the ability to listen.

[jonnyg]

Premier League in games where the away team open the scoring in 40-HT time band and 0-1 HT

last 25

1-4-20

away teams won 80% = 1/4

GAME PATHWAY

6/25 0-1 FT

11/25 > 0-2 0-0-11

8/25 > 1-1 1-4-3

48% over 2.5 goals


Crystal Palace
0 - 2
Swansea City View events More info
0 - 1
44' T. Abraham
0 - 2
48' J. Ayew

[jonnyg]

AFC Bournemouth
1 - 2
Manchester City View events More info
C. Daniels 13'
1 - 0
1 - 1
21' Gabriel Jesus
1 - 2
90' R. Sterling

2014-2015 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% < some expectation of the away teams fighting back , and the average goal production was 3.3 > some expectation of acceleration of goal production

2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% , and the average goal production was 4.00

2016-2017 in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes

28-3-4 > home teams won 80%

43% produced a goal 80 + minutes

average goal production = 3.69

[jonnyg]

Newcastle United
3 - 0
West Ham United View events More info
Joselu 36'
1 - 0
C. Clark 72'
2 - 0
A. Mitrović 86'
3 - 0


west ham last 30 away in Pl when losing 1-0 HT game state

24-4-2 < lost 80% = 1/4