In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

[jonnyg]

every time i post data < I am advised I am cutting and pasting < I am cutting and pasting my own data that I collated >


In the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW 31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%

32-6-3

In the Premier League 2016-2017 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,

75% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%

36-5-7 > the home teams won 75% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back average goal production = goal goal goal .65 44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

4/48 1-0 FT

25/48 > 2-0 24-0-1 home teams won 96%

19 /48 > 1-1 8-5-6 home teams won 42%

89 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band 2015-2016 -2016-2017

68-11-10 > the home teams won 76%

GAME PATHWAY

7/89 1-0 FT

51/89 > 2-0 48-2-1 > home teams won 94% > is a 2-0 lead ” precarious ” ?

31/89 > 1-1 13-9-9 > home teams won 42%


THIS IS MY DATA which I collated < took a long time to collate so please dont delete

[jonnyg]

2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

The home teams won 13%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 62%

38% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

6/63 0-1 FT

29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%

28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%

2016-2017 season in the premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band ,
82% ended over 2.5 goals and 66% ended over 3.5 goals .

Both teams scored in 83% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%

The home teams won 28.33%, 23.33% eded a DRAW and the away teams won 48.33%

38% produced a goal (s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

1/60 0-1 FT

35/60 > 1-1 > 16-13-6 > away teams won 17%

24/60 > 0-2 > 1-1-22 away teams won 92%

123 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band 2015-2016-2016-2017

7/123 0-1 FT

64/123 > 1-1 23-26-15 away teams won 23%

52/123 > 0-2 2-4-46 away teams won 88%

[jonnyg]

The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Premier League 2008-2009-2015-2016

away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 58 63

Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%

Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%

opening goal by away team 0-20 and 1-1 HT Away W% 27% 8% 15% 33% 30% 25% 13% 31%

Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38%

Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%

Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%

Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%

BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73%

over 1.5 FH 58% 57% 65% 58% 67% 55% 66% 75%

that took me over 100 hours to produce and a site lifted the data and posted as their own to try and sell premium early goal tips

[jonnyg]

i will not mention their forum name < but just to say i received a lovely PM from a forumite that could not understand why the forum mod etc / owner is so keen to repel me <

appreciated

I am taking a holiday from social media for a few weeks > I intend to come back to this thread to power out intellectually stimulating high level data and analytics >

my humble advice is do your own research < dont let soccer mystic control your trading <

[Euler]

this is a serious point < what we are seeing re football data and analytics today is top heavy tech people who dont have strong data analytical skills dominating the landscape which is why football data and analytics is in such a rut today < years behind where it should be <

we simply dont have sharp people looking at football data and analytics > well not enough anyway <

A chap I am friendly with who has a high up role in a betting company said the same thing < not just me thinking this < honest >

That's not true, I know a lot of odds compilers and have studied and modeled matches since the mid-eighties and there are very highly intelligent people in the odds compiling business. There is a whole industry around analytics. I've met some of the big syndicates and academics they have it off to a tee and make a lot of money. You are on completely the wrong track in thinking that looking at matches years ago has any influence on a match taking place today.

If you think you have an edge keep it quiet, put it to use and go head to head with the industry, you would make a fortune if you have an edge. If you have an edge, use it.

You just don't seem to get it. But It's really annoying to everybody to post reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams of the same stuff day after day after day.

Just pointless, it really winds people up.

[Euler]

i will not mention their forum name < but just to say i received a lovely PM from a forumite that could not understand why the forum mod etc / owner is so keen to repel me <

appreciated

We have had loads of complaints

[jonnyg]

i will not mention their forum name < but just to say i received a lovely PM from a forumite that could not understand why the forum mod etc / owner is so keen to repel me <

appreciated

We have had loads of complaints

I am getting loads of very positive PM's

you probably have a different insight into betting trading to me as well as experience of the betting industry <

i am looking at this from a hobby aspect < i want to be intellectually stimulated by football data and analytics >

[Euler]

People don't mind the analysis, it's flooding the forum that is generating the complaints. You have been warned. It's perfectly possible to get your point across without flooding / trashing the forum.

Good luck with putting your analysis to use in the market.