1st Half Goal Probability

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kb19trader
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Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:35 am

Hi

Does anybody know how I would calculate the probability of the home team scoring a 1st half goal ?

Thanks
Keith
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

The price is generally in the markets. If you look at half time score and full-time score and deducted the two your chance of a goal will pop out the other side of the spreadsheet.
kb19trader
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Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:35 am

yep - that makes sense. Thanks Euler
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Euler
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Did you want just any goal or first goal as they are two different problems?
kb19trader
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Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:35 am

The probability that the home team would score a goal in the first half, rather than not scoring if that makes sense - so any goal as long as in the first half. This is prior to kick off.
max_usted
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kb19trader wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:34 pm
The probability that the home team would score a goal in the first half, rather than not scoring if that makes sense - so any goal as long as in the first half. This is prior to kick off.
http://www.football-data.co.uk/ spreadsheets are very good for this. You can manipulate these to see the number/proportion of matches across individual or all major European leagues in which the home team scored in the first half (by season). You can also look at this by team and see that there is considerable variation. I think last season, there was a goal in the first half in every Werder Bremen league game (home and away), although they didn't necessarily score it. Their first match this season was 0-0 at HT though (I think).
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