Laying over 3.5gls and 4.5 gls

[Phileas69]

Hi Guys,

I am new to trading but I have been doing a lot of testing with small stakes on various different football markets. Anyway, from what I have tested so far, it seems laying over 3.5gls and 4.5gls seem to be a safe market to be in and sometimes even over 5.5 goals if lay odds are right.

However, I see most people seem to trade the under/over 2.5 goal markets and I was trying to wonder why? Is it the chance of higher profits?

I was hoping for some advice, and maybe someone can let me know if I am missing something?

Thanks in advance

[max_usted]

The odds in the Unders markets are interlinked, but obviously they variously give you different depths of odds movements, starting from the under 0.5 market which can start at extremely high prices (perhaps over 50 for Barcelona vs. Juventus last season I think, which finished 0-0), leading to different degrees of profit or liability/loss depending on whether you're backing or laying (and also different frequencies of loss versus success, e.g. backing u0.5 will lead to frequent losses, but also larger scales of wins which might supersede these losses (and visa versa if laying)).

BTW, there is no such thing as a safe market to be in - laying over 3.5 goals is not safe if 2 or 3 goals are scored in quick succession, and this often happens. Not trying to sound like a smart alec, it's just that newbies always want to find ways and markets where they can be safe, and gradual accumulation via time decay gives them this feeling. The problem is then that they become addicted to this strategy (it feels safe) and start applying it when it is not suitable.

I would recommend you think of it as per the following:

• you need to take a view on what will occur during the game you are trading

• you can form this view via whichever analytical method you find best (e.g. statistics, watching the game and forming a view, both, etc)

• after having this formed this view - and without it being biased by reliance on any particular strategies or markets which make you feel most safe - you then need to see which markets (if any) give you best value for this position, this given your knowledge of how these markets move and what leakage you will suffer should you retain your position for a certain period of time, etc

• this will often include games in which you do not think there will be a goal, in which case you can benefit from time decay. But there are many opportunities where an opposite strategy would be by far preferential, and it is important not to be blind to these due to an over-reliance/preference for a particular 'safe' strategy

• Please also note that you can never be 'safe' as the unexpected can always happen - you're looking for your analytical and implementing skills to give you an edge, which means you're more successful than unsuccessful (implementing skills being much harder to hone than you might think).

[Phileas69]

The odds in the Unders markets are interlinked, but obviously they variously give you different depths of odds movements, starting from the under 0.5 market which can start at extremely high prices (perhaps over 50 for Barcelona vs. Juventus last season I think, which finished 0-0), leading to different degrees of profit or liability/loss depending on whether you're backing or laying (and also different frequencies of loss versus success, e.g. backing u0.5 will lead to frequent losses, but also larger scales of wins which might supersede these losses (and visa versa if laying)).

BTW, there is no such thing as a safe market to be in - laying over 3.5 goals is not safe if 2 or 3 goals are scored in quick succession, and this often happens. Not trying to sound like a smart alec, it's just that newbies always want to find ways and markets where they can be safe, and gradual accumulation via time decay gives them this feeling. The problem is then that they become addicted to this strategy (it feels safe) and start applying it when it is not suitable.

I would recommend you think of it as per the following:

• you need to take a view on what will occur during the game you are trading

• you can form this view via whichever analytical method you find best (e.g. statistics, watching the game and forming a view, both, etc)

• after having this formed this view - and without it being biased by reliance on any particular strategies or markets which make you feel most safe - you then need to see which markets (if any) give you best value for this position, this given your knowledge of how these markets move and what leakage you will suffer should you retain your position for a certain period of time, etc

• this will often include games in which you do not think there will be a goal, in which case you can benefit from time decay. But there are many opportunities where an opposite strategy would be by far preferential, and it is important not to be blind to these due to an over-reliance/preference for a particular 'safe' strategy

• Please also note that you can never be 'safe' as the unexpected can always happen - you're looking for your analytical and implementing skills to give you an edge, which means you're more successful than unsuccessful (implementing skills being much harder to hone than you might think).

Thanks for the advice Max, I can see what you mean.