Hi
I'm working on a new strategy for the football match odds and would greatly appreciate some assistance...
I'm trying to determine the formula that will provide an 'approx' figure that the draw will increase to after the first goal in a match. Soccer Mystic is able to do this fairly accurately and it must have some correlation to the two pre score team prices..
I know I can work this out eventually if I watch enough matches and record the actual prices, but any help would be appreciated to start me off
Thanks
Peter
Match Odds
Hi Peter,
You need to start looking at the statistical function called Poisson Distribution.
Basically most of the odds on football matches move based on Poisson distribution. If you can work out each teams goal expectancy for each game (soccer stats sites may help with this) then using poisson formulas will give you implied probabilities of scorelines. You work out what the chances are of each team scoring a certain amount of goals over the 90+ minutes and then multiply the probabilities together for each scoreline to get the probability of that scoreline occurring.
Based on these probabilities, you can work out Correct Score, Over/Under's, Match Odds, etc. You can even even work out how the odds will move if a goal is scored at any point in a game in the same way that Soccer Mystic will do this for you.
Excel has a POISSON function and also does pretty graphs, take a look
.
Cheers
SB
You need to start looking at the statistical function called Poisson Distribution.
Basically most of the odds on football matches move based on Poisson distribution. If you can work out each teams goal expectancy for each game (soccer stats sites may help with this) then using poisson formulas will give you implied probabilities of scorelines. You work out what the chances are of each team scoring a certain amount of goals over the 90+ minutes and then multiply the probabilities together for each scoreline to get the probability of that scoreline occurring.
Based on these probabilities, you can work out Correct Score, Over/Under's, Match Odds, etc. You can even even work out how the odds will move if a goal is scored at any point in a game in the same way that Soccer Mystic will do this for you.
Excel has a POISSON function and also does pretty graphs, take a look
.Cheers
SB