Football trading : My Daily Trading Results - Football Trading

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Trading96
Posts: 388
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:09 pm

Your results will speak for themselves probably best to leave it at that.

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Kolop
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:02 pm

Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:05 am

Good Luck UK Trader

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:39 am

theuktrader wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:34 pm
Thanks Kafkaesque

This strategy is one which I have been using for a number of years. I am actually quite an experienced trader but have realized humbleness is the best trait to have. I have started with a £1000 account to show how I can grow an account without it having to start off with £5000 or more. If I came in talking about how much I make from my larger accounts the hounds of negativity would have been all over me.

Anyway lets see how it goes with this project because the proof of something is really down to what the bank is saying week after week and month after month.

In regards to the strategy there were simply 4 things I am concerned with

position sizing
win rate
reward to risk ratio
potential number of trades per week

For me a strategy which historically wins around 60% of the time with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio and where there are around 25-30 potential trades per week has a positive expectancy. Rather than looking at the odds and thinking time is running out so i am likely to lose, its about over the course of 50-100 trades understanding whether the combination of the above 4 factors can produce a profitable system consistently.

As I mentioned simply just picking matches because of a hunch or through sheer random choices will never win but i seem to have identified particular metrics which fortunately see me come out around the 60-65% win rate. Sometimes it can be down to 50% for the week, other times as high as 70% but the power of the reward to risk ratio means that I can afford for my win rate to drop below 60% and still remain profitable. But over time it has averaged around the 60% mark.

The most important thing for me is the pyschology. How can you be strong mentally enough to go into a trade knowing that time is running out...Its completely by understanding the statistics behind the strategy and knowing its a probability game. Its no longer a case of placing a trade then sitting there biting my nails hoping to hear euler say "this match has been suspended" only to then realize it was suspended not because of a goal but because of a red card (hate those). I place the trade and walk away or place the next trade that meets the criteria.

I think in blocks of 30 trades....This protects me against myself when I get 4 losing trades in a row.

Anyway lets see how this moves forward....And pot luck my first trade for today was a losing trade....Liverpool U23 vs Whoever....Normally I like to maintain at least 4-6 trades if possible as it just means over the course of each month thats 100 trades or thereabouts which means even if I won just 50%, with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio I am profitable indeeed.

Ok back to what really matters now. Trading and producing results.

Cheers Mate
If you've found a sweet spot in the market with that kind potential, good on you :) From your description though, it's a bet, not a trade

spreadbetting
Posts: 1694
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:59 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 pm
When I embarked on this journey a few weeks ago it was just a struggle because when trading on your own with no-one looking over your shoulder you are prone to moments of madness and rule bending. So what I felt would help was if I could share my results in this community so that at least I can feel some level of accountability.
theuktrader wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:34 pm
Thanks Kafkaesque

This strategy is one which I have been using for a number of years. I am actually quite an experienced trader but have realized humbleness is the best trait to have. I have started with a £1000 account to show how I can grow an account without it having to start off with £5000 or more. If I came in talking about how much I make from my larger accounts the hounds of negativity would have been all over me.
I'm a bit confused now, is it a strategy you've been using successfully for a few years or one you started only a few weeks ago? If you have been using it successfully for years what is the point of a) the thread and b) using a small bank. Don't feel the need to dumb things down for everyone, I'm sure most are well aware it's possible to make decent money on the exchanges.

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:28 pm

Point of exercise is to start off with a small bank and prove I can grow it from a small bank as most beginners will be able to relate to a small bank rather than me showing big profits from an account of 10K Plus. And believe you me I have been challenged by using a small bank because I don't have the security of a big bank to cover my silly mistakes.

14th December 2018
DAILY PROFIT = +£38.20
PROJECT PROFIT = +£38.20

15th December
DAILY PROFIT = -£100.87
PROJECT PROFIT = -£62.67

16TH DECEMBER
DAILY PROFIT = +£190.15
PROJECT PROFIT = +£127.48
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theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:32 pm

Kafkaesque just wanted to address something you mentioned in regards to betting or trading. I had mentioned this on another board but I wanted to understand why leaving an open trade to expiry is viewed as betting whereas opening and closing a position is seen as trading.

I can understand the need to open a position and close it. For instance if you are laying the draw from the beginning of a match, because the liability is normally 2-4 times the size of your stake then clearly you cannot be successful at such a strategy if you simply keep your lay trade open to expiry since the reward to risk factor is so heavily against you.

However lets say you have someone who instead of laying the draw at the beginning of the match has a strategy where they lay the draw 5 minutes from the end of the match. At this point the lay odds would be hovering around 1.50 or thereabouts. If they place a lay trade at this position would you view it a bet if they decided to leave the trade open till expiry. What would be the lowest back they would need to take to close the position if the trade was looking like it would go against them. If they closed at 1.10 to take a loss or 1.05....What if they closed at 1.01.....

The point I am making is that opening and closing a position is about managing liability. However if you kick of a trade where your liability is actually close to your stake (1:1 risk/reward) or even less than your stake (example of laying at 1.50) and the strike rate backs up the strategy for overall profit then since you can leave the position open till expiry then why is this seen as a bet and not a trade. Clearly the position is already managed by you buying the price as it hurtles downwards thus massively reducing your downside. Then its a matter of having an edge where the win rate is sufficient enough to make this viable.

The argument that a trade is where you have to bet and lay or open and close is a traditional argument. Even in the financial world you now have financial options where you can let the trade run to expiry. In fact this was something that Pete Webb made reference to when in a youtube video where he talked about the parallels between the sporting exchange and the financial exchanges.

Interested to know your thoughts. I know the argument about betting and trading comes down to semantics but if you have a statistical edge and using a financial exchange to open your position rather than going to the bookies then to me its a trade unless a peron is just blindly in a gambling mindset and chasing losses, no edge etc...

spreadbetting
Posts: 1694
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:16 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:28 pm
Point of exercise is to start off with a small bank and prove I can grow it from a small bank as most beginners will be able to relate to a small bank rather than me showing big profits from an account of 10K Plus. And believe you me I have been challenged by using a small bank because I don't have the security of a big bank to cover my silly mistakes.


But who are you trying to prove it too if you're already an experienced trader and been using/profiting from the same strategy for a few years . And I'm not sure how a small bank (if £1K can be considered small to beginners) can be a challenge if you've already made decent profits from previous years, re-funding an account is never the end of the world.

I guess I'm just confused as to why you'd feel the need to restrict your profits as some kind of noble deed to show beginners you can win on the exchanges. In my experience stats based strategies have a finite shelf life and it's best to cash in whilst it lasts.

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:43 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:32 pm
Interested to know your thoughts. I know the argument about betting and trading comes down to semantics but if you have a statistical edge and using a financial exchange to open your position rather than going to the bookies then to me its a trade unless a peron is just blindly in a gambling mindset and chasing losses, no edge etc...
It isn't semantics at all.

Sure, a number of points of interests is up for debate. The difference between trading and gambling (which been done here often, and also lately); whether a trader should always look to trade out or can something let it run etc.

What is neither up for debate nor semantics is that a trade is where you take a position and - nearly always - look to trade back out at an appropriate point (or even predetermined), often many times over. A bet is where you take a position, because you feel the current price offers value compared to the true chance, let the market play out and take the volatility involved.

Nothing wrong with betting, and again if you've found an edge in the market, you can consistently exploit, then wonderful. It's just betting, all the same.

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:57 pm

i agree to disagree but could you answer the question just so that I can understand what your saying in this practical example.

If I enter a lay the draw trade at 85 minutes when the draw price has come down to 1.50. If the price continues down to 1.10 and its now injury time are you saying if I close out the trade for a loss by backing at 1.10 that this is a trade but if I don't do this and allow the price to drop beyond 1.10 down to 1.01 and then the game finishes that this is a bet.

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:23 pm

Another trade came up for today which my system identified so updated and final results for today are as follows

16th December
DAILY PROFIT = +£261.77
PROJECT PROFIT = +£199.10
16dec17.jpg
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