Football trading : Dutching and greening up

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Dallas
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Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:17 am

Steve17 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:58 pm
Thanks for you help think I might have it sorted, don't know how experience you are at this, but here is what I would like to do.....bet on there being under 2.5 goals and greening out when at 25% or when 20 mins into the game I think I would have a good profit sucsess rate, what do you think
Stratergies like this all come down to match seletion, there is a video on it done by Peter thats worth a watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLXVgXRwMUQ

Steve17
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Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:19 pm

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:50 am

I have studied the history of when the average first goal is scored on the 29th minute. If I can get the bot to green up at 25% would that not be a good rate of return on investment if not what would you suggest

Derek27
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Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:27 pm

Steve17 wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:50 am
I have studied the history of when the average first goal is scored on the 29th minute. If I can get the bot to green up at 25% would that not be a good rate of return on investment if not what would you suggest
Your counting your winnings and not your losing trades - they're not all going to win!

It's not the average minute of the first goal that's important - it's the ratio of under 20 minute first goals to over 20 minute first goals. You would need the first goal to be scored in over 20 minutes or no more than two goals scored, four times out of five, just to break even.

As I said, I don't trade football. But if the pre-match price is 2.0, after 20 minutes without a goal, would the price now be 1.6 or less to enable you to make the 25% ?

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Dallas
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Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:42 pm

Steve17 wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:50 am
I have studied the history of when the average first goal is scored on the 29th minute. If I can get the bot to green up at 25% would that not be a good rate of return on investment if not what would you suggest
You can use Soccermystic to play around with the time of the opening goal to get an idea of where the odds will be after a given time, or how long will need to have elapse before you can make X% profit on your stake.

Steve17
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:40 pm

Thanks I am learning to scalp on the ladder, the problem I have is that during the day I am working, in the evening there is not much liquidity in the markets does this change as we move into the summer months

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Dallas
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:23 pm

Steve17 wrote:
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:40 pm
Thanks I am learning to scalp on the ladder, the problem I have is that during the day I am working, in the evening there is not much liquidity in the markets does this change as we move into the summer months
I assume you mean racing?

If so yes the summer markets are far different from what they are this time of year, in fact Feb is the hardest month of the year trying to find oppertunities etc
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2017/0 ... he-tunnel/

In general though markets for all sports will pick up as we move into summer

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:55 pm

Steve17 wrote:
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:40 pm
Thanks I am learning to scalp on the ladder, the problem I have is that during the day I am working, in the evening there is not much liquidity in the markets does this change as we move into the summer months
As Dallas says it's a tough time of year. But don't just rule out those evening markets. Liquidity shouldn't be an issue for you, but admittedly it does often go hand in hand with volatility which is the potential danger (or can be your friend).

You can still learn a lot from it as you grind your way through 'The Knowledge', but what I'd suggest is that you give yourself a little more freedom than scalping allows. Just go small, £2, pick a downside exit point to stop at, and allow your trade to move further into profit if it does so. Weak, illiquid markets have the potential to show a decent amount if momentum when they move, but watchout for sharp pullbacks. ie give yourself the chance to learn how things develop without being obsessed by micro moves. Even trading at random should end up break even over time so it shouldn't cost you too much to get involved. If it does cost you more than you expected, then that's your first opportunity to look closely at what you've been doing and make the necessary adjustments.

So many new people pick scalping as the first discipline to learn but imho it's probably the hardest one to master. Trade slower moving markets, try swingier trading, try more mechanical markets like tennis, almost anything except the tricky world of scalping where a sudden move can test your psychology to the limit....or do whatever you like, we're all different :)

Good luck, and keep it fun or you'll get frustrated before you've learnt anything.

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:55 pm

The title of this thread is a classic, gets me everytime.

Steve17
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Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:19 pm

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:57 pm

Thanks guys am trading small stakes I look at the charts watch the market for about 5 mins I have an off set of one tick and wait for both to be match before I trade again

Derek27
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Location: UK

Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:44 pm

Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:27 pm
Douching?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douche
I missed that post. You really can learn a lot from this forum. :lol:

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