Football trading : Quit my job to do this as a living!

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 246
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:49 am

LinusP wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:50 am
Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7
Thanks for posting info. :shock:

Dare I say it...game selection is vital too. (there said it) :) ...A strong performing Home or Away side, capable of slamming in any number of goals is harder to predict an actual correct score. I'd more than likely centre any staking around the any other score market and estimate other likely CS scenarios. Using the variable dutching programme, I would take profits on those and minimise risk with insurance/acceptable losses on others.

There are plenty of games to choose from, take Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo @ 3.15pm today.

Any Other Home @ 6.20 Best profit
1-0 @ 7.40 Profit
2-0 @ 6.60 Profit
3-0 @ 9.80 Profit
1-1 @ 11.50 Profit
0-0 @ 15.50 Insurance
2-1 @ 10.50 Insurance
3-1 @ 13.50 Insurance
0-1 @ 29.00 Insurance

All others tweak for acceptable losses, (similar to a stop-loss) around 3x of highest target profit scenario.

If I get it totally wrong (quite possible), maybe as Atletico played in the Europa League s few days ago, (mind you easy 3-0 win), then I'm still in the game in the long run.

Trader Pat
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:58 am

blackmoor83 wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm

I am putting on trades around the 4-5k mark mainly on 3-3 score!
Hi,

This does mean you're liability for any given trade is 4-5k?

If the answer is yes then you're really playing with fire. What happens when there is a Betfair outage? You'll find yourself staring at a suspended screen unable to do anything.
Most traders have experienced this and the insurance policy is to skip onto Betdaq and cover your position on there but at those kind of liabilities there wont be the liquidity on Betdaq to hedge your position.

If your 'day job' was only 10 days of work a month it might have been wiser to stick with it until you've got a year ot two under your belt making consistent profits. It only takes one outage to wipe out an entire months profits and then you're into the unchartered territory of how you deal with that mentally.

Don't mean to be negative but a Betfair outage is a very real possibility.

Atho55
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:04 pm

Stats from CgmBet

These Leagues and Seasons

Export with counts by occurance
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footysystems
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:01 pm

This can be done very easy using InPlay stats :shock: IMO

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:07 pm

Good luck footysystems - fortune favors the brave :)

max_usted
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm

blackmoor83 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:05 am
max_usted wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:14 am
weemac wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:02 am
Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that? :lol:

Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.
Hi max, I hear what you are saying about 2 high scoring matches on the spin could be disastrous i completely agree with that if I was letting every match run no matter what to the end of 90 mins.

I’m a huge fan of cashing out for either profit or losses. Gets the money out for another trade and also protects against crazy last 10 minutes at times.

I don’t believe I’m anything special at all I do have a good knowledge on football though 30 years and failed many times in the past.

I hear what you say about many other markets I have dabbled in trading matches pre kick off with a bit of success but find I would need a much bigger bank to make this more worth while. What’s your strategy are you on mainly footy?
Yes I only do football. I do it in-play and have been at it for about 1.4 years. I'm trying to look for patterns wherever I can find them - but most particularly in the way matches play out (i.e. I watch matches live), and then take positions based on that.

I work on training my mind to become tolerant of new strategies/positions, as I have a tendency to favour a particular strategy-or-two that I feel most comfortable with, and then start over-deploying them/using them when it isn't appropriate.

So the only thing that strikes me about your approach is that, I think that if I used just one strategy, I would become blind to circumstances in which other strategies could be very successfully used. As above, I also think that I'd start over-using that single strategy, But then perhaps it's better to have a laser focus on a particular set of circumstances.

Also very impressed you managed to lay at odds like 100 - I can tolerate laying at about 5, and in special circumstances - otherwise the fear kicks in!

blackmoor83
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:11 pm

Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:19 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:03 am
Forget about Premium Charge - you won't pay tax, and PC only comes into force when you are in the money, so cross that bridge when you get to it. I'm assuming that if you've been making £5k a month recently, but are still not paying PC yet, then you must have blown lots of money previously. Therefore, tread carefully because you clearly have a reckless side when things are not going well
Yeah a fair amount over the previous 12 or so years. Thanks for the advice I know I’m aware of past problems but feel I can manage it so much better these days!

blackmoor83
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:11 pm

Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:45 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:58 am
blackmoor83 wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm

I am putting on trades around the 4-5k mark mainly on 3-3 score!
Hi,

This does mean you're liability for any given trade is 4-5k?

If the answer is yes then you're really playing with fire. What happens when there is a Betfair outage? You'll find yourself staring at a suspended screen unable to do anything.
Most traders have experienced this and the insurance policy is to skip onto Betdaq and cover your position on there but at those kind of liabilities there wont be the liquidity on Betdaq to hedge your position.

If your 'day job' was only 10 days of work a month it might have been wiser to stick with it until you've got a year ot two under your belt making consistent profits. It only takes one outage to wipe out an entire months profits and then you're into the unchartered territory of how you deal with that mentally.

Don't mean to be negative but a Betfair outage is a very real possibility.
I do have a betdaq account and a bet 365 account to cover when this has happened! Seems to be a lot on the mls games and Chinese super league! Liquidity is usually enough on betdaq just prices are not as good but it happens every 100 games or so which isn’t that horrific

blackmoor83
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:11 pm

Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:47 pm

max_usted wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm
blackmoor83 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:05 am
max_usted wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:14 am


Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.
Hi max, I hear what you are saying about 2 high scoring matches on the spin could be disastrous i completely agree with that if I was letting every match run no matter what to the end of 90 mins.

I’m a huge fan of cashing out for either profit or losses. Gets the money out for another trade and also protects against crazy last 10 minutes at times.

I don’t believe I’m anything special at all I do have a good knowledge on football though 30 years and failed many times in the past.

I hear what you say about many other markets I have dabbled in trading matches pre kick off with a bit of success but find I would need a much bigger bank to make this more worth while. What’s your strategy are you on mainly footy?
Yes I only do football. I do it in-play and have been at it for about 1.4 years. I'm trying to look for patterns wherever I can find them - but most particularly in the way matches play out (i.e. I watch matches live), and then take positions based on that.

I work on training my mind to become tolerant of new strategies/positions, as I have a tendency to favour a particular strategy-or-two that I feel most comfortable with, and then start over-deploying them/using them when it isn't appropriate.

So the only thing that strikes me about your approach is that, I think that if I used just one strategy, I would become blind to circumstances in which other strategies could be very successfully used. As above, I also think that I'd start over-using that single strategy, But then perhaps it's better to have a laser focus on a particular set of circumstances.

Also very impressed you managed to lay at odds like 100 - I can tolerate laying at about 5, and in special circumstances - otherwise the fear kicks in!
I did do a few correct scores matches this week which went surprisingly well maybe get more into this in the future.

Trader Pat
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:49 pm

blackmoor83 wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:45 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:58 am
blackmoor83 wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:34 pm

I am putting on trades around the 4-5k mark mainly on 3-3 score!
Hi,

This does mean you're liability for any given trade is 4-5k?

If the answer is yes then you're really playing with fire. What happens when there is a Betfair outage? You'll find yourself staring at a suspended screen unable to do anything.
Most traders have experienced this and the insurance policy is to skip onto Betdaq and cover your position on there but at those kind of liabilities there wont be the liquidity on Betdaq to hedge your position.

If your 'day job' was only 10 days of work a month it might have been wiser to stick with it until you've got a year ot two under your belt making consistent profits. It only takes one outage to wipe out an entire months profits and then you're into the unchartered territory of how you deal with that mentally.

Don't mean to be negative but a Betfair outage is a very real possibility.
I do have a betdaq account and a bet 365 account to cover when this has happened! Seems to be a lot on the mls games and Chinese super league! Liquidity is usually enough on betdaq just prices are not as good but it happens every 100 games or so which isn’t that horrific
OK Mate,

Best of luck on your journey

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