Quit my job to do this as a living!

[spreadbetting]

I guess they don't see him as ever getting to that position, westerner, so why go off on uneccessary tangents.

[dragontrades]

Don't want to be negative but it sounds like you have just been lucky and in the long term this will just break even.
I hope you prove me wrong and I wish u all the best

[Crazyskier]

in my oipinion any one can make money for a period but doing it long term is on another level and the only way to get to that level is to make some rules and UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCED DO NOT BREAK THEM,

i read this somewhere and have it on my desk in front of me and read it before trading every day

" the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one
is what they do when faced with a red book .".

listen to the people on here they have been there done it and are successful

+1 from me - this is the single most essential rule for long term success. Sadly only those who feel the pain the hardest seem to learn the best (assuming they haven't given up completely).

CS

[alya24]

hmmm have read this thread with interest. Is blackmoor83 still active? Would be interested in an update on whether this strategy continued to pay or not.

[Derek27]

hmmm have read this thread with interest. Is blackmoor83 still active? Would be interested in an update on whether this strategy continued to pay or not.

Welcome to the forum alya24. You can see when a member was last active by clicking on their name and viewing their profile. I would have expected an update from the OP if the strategy was successful. I would also expect, if it was successful, that everybody would be onto it now that he's given it away and the 3-3 draw would be unlayable.

[eightbo]

hmmm have read this thread with interest. Is blackmoor83 still active? Would be interested in an update on whether this strategy continued to pay or not.

Welcome to the forum alya24. You can see when a member was last active by clicking on their name and viewing their profile. I would have expected an update from the OP if the strategy was successful. I would also expect, if it was successful, that everybody would be onto it now that he's given it away and the 3-3 draw would be unlayable.

It's not hard you just stick to the Italian leagues and ramp up your size when they start scoring own goals.

Jokes aside I hope OP is doing well. Would be reasonable for someone to forget about the forum if they started those sums out of the blue.
Sample size did seem a bit small in perspective of the strategy though.

[Kai]

hmmm have read this thread with interest. Is blackmoor83 still active? Would be interested in an update on whether this strategy continued to pay or not.

Hard to believe that someone would quit their job over a 3-3 lay strategy, that sounds like complete madness to me. Risking your months work on 1 particular trade? Risking it for every single trade? Taking losses soon as games go to 2-2? If anything, at 2-2 is maybe exactly where OP should start getting involved instead. What's the plan when markets unexpectedly stay suspended forever, or in the the case of an outage, or if VAR decisions void half your bets etc? Does that strategy really sound like something you would be interested in? There is zero margin for error.

In racing markets that would maybe be the equivalent of laying an outsider that has "no chance" of winning. That actually reminds me of a person from my region that used to run a blog, he was a poker player for years before deciding to invest all of his earnings into "trading" the horses in-play. His strategy was a simple one and seemed like he couldn't lose, until that one inevitable race came along that wiped out his entire 5 figure bank including all of his poker profits that he was grinding out for years.

[aidenrn810]

I have previously and still do Lay High Scoring Football Correct Scores.

Some success, some signficiant loses but need to be controlled now

However, I am trying again but with the rules of :

- place pre-game and never in-play
- review position at half time and cash out for a loss if the score is looking to be a threat (similar to the 2-2 escpae if 3-3 that was menitoned in the thread) + monitor by goal alerts through BetAngel as necessary in the second half
- be selective on games where I believe I have knowledge as well as low scores are predicted
- choose important games to one team or the other (no dead rubbers that could be free scoring)

I'd be interested in your thoughts and to understand what strategies or other pitfalls to watch out for.

Any tips from all the wise owls on here for this coming weeked UK/European games?

Did Lux v Serbia this week --- so see my twitter feed for my results as I go forward : @slowandsteadyp1

[Kai]

Did Lux v Serbia this week --- so see my twitter feed for my results as I go forward : @slowandsteadyp1

I've glanced at your Twitter and there seems to be a common theme in your approach regardless of sport, you're looking for stuff to lay no matter the price. On racing you seem to be winning 2-3 pounds per race but losing 450, you can probably expect more of the same with this approach.

If you're looking to trade time decay on football why not look for angles on the over/under markets? Instead of trading the decay on the high liability CS prices. On the overs you could even reverse your whole approach, by risking smaller amounts to potentially win larger amounts. If you play around enough with overs you can probably find an edge somewhere.

[aidenrn810]

See the thread below Kai to see a discussion on the big loss I had earlier this week --- yes I am learning and need to avoid taking small losses in-play and just get out and accept a small red position.

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=19542&start=20

Good suggestion on overs/unders which can be volatile and change very quickly with a goal or two close together. Any threads or advice or further things to look at here would be appreciated.

[Kai]

See the thread below Kai to see a discussion on the big loss I had earlier this week --- yes I am learning and need to avoid taking small losses in-play and just get out and accept a small red position.

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=19542&start=20

Good suggestion on overs/unders which can be volatile and change very quickly with a goal or two close together. Any threads or advice or further things to look at here would be appreciated.

Then my previous comment about that in-play racing trader was probably more suited for your other thread

Regarding overs/unders, maybe start by looking for anything out of the norm. For example, games/leagues that usually have very low unders may provide cheap trading opportunities if the game suddenly opens up so you can try catching a goal or two, or games that have ridiculously low overs may not be as open as their prices suggest so their prices can accelerate faster after every missed chance, and you could maybe just trade the decay instead of goals which I personally prefer. Of course, you have to re-evaluate every time the game resets (at halftime, after every goal, even after subs). Incentive to score plays a key role as well, a match can create situations where that incentive is higher or lower than usual, if for example Kosovo unexpectedly takes a 1st minute lead that may motivate England to score a couple sooner rather than later. In a different type of game, a very early goal or two by the favorite may blunt that incentive quite a bit, so sometimes it may be worthwhile getting involved in the market overreaction and manage the position from there according to how the game is going. Just a couple of suggestion off the top of my head, overs may look a very simple market but they have incredible depth.

[Derek27]

hmmm have read this thread with interest. Is blackmoor83 still active? Would be interested in an update on whether this strategy continued to pay or not.

Hard to believe that someone would quit their job over a 3-3 lay strategy, that sounds like complete madness to me. Risking your months work on 1 particular trade? Risking it for every single trade? Taking losses soon as games go to 2-2? If anything, at 2-2 is maybe exactly where OP should start getting involved instead. What's the plan when markets unexpectedly stay suspended forever, or in the the case of an outage, or if VAR decisions void half your bets etc? Does that strategy really sound like something you would be interested in? There is zero margin for error.

In racing markets that would maybe be the equivalent of laying an outsider that has "no chance" of winning. That actually reminds me of a person from my region that used to run a blog, he was a poker player for years before deciding to invest all of his earnings into "trading" the horses in-play. His strategy was a simple one and seemed like he couldn't lose, until that one inevitable race came along that wiped out his entire 5 figure bank including all of his poker profits that he was grinding out for years.

The OP hasn't posted for 4 months so lets hope there hasn't been many 3-3 draws in that time (or 3-2, 2-3, 2-2).

I've lost count of the number of ideas I've had that stood up to early testing but not to more comprehensive testing. But the above idea is something most people would see flaws in and not even attempt.

[SweetLyrics]

Many of us have had false epiphanies, and lost lots of money on the back of them, so I do have some sympathy for the original poster. I just hope he realised his mistake and stopped trading while he was still up overall.

Also - and I mean this constructively - if you do think that a particular market is too high or too low on average, then I wouldn't recommend advertising it to hundreds of traders on this forum, as the edge may swiftly disappear (or an edge in the opposite direction may be created).

Plus, I can't think why, logically, the 3-3 market would be habitually over-estimating the chances of that outcome. If you see what appears to be a profitable pattern based on historical data, you should ask 'Why would the market keep screwing up like this?'. If there is no good reason, then chances are that what you saw was a temporary aberration from efficiency, not the makings of an edge.

[Derek27]

if you do think that a particular market is too high or too low on average, then I wouldn't recommend advertising it to hundreds of traders on this forum

The people who do are usually the ones who got it wrong. One guy last week suggested backing Barcelona every time they play, but I doubt their price will shorten as a result of all his followers.

[SweetLyrics]

The people who do are usually the ones who got it wrong. One guy last week suggested backing Barcelona every time they play, but I doubt their price will shorten as a result of all his followers.

Fair point, and if someone does find a genuine edge based on fundamentals, it will probably disappear or at least shrink sooner or later anyway. I remember Adrian Massey top rated selections becoming less profitable each year, for example.

However, I still think that, if you think you have a genuine edge, then it probably isn't a good idea to share it, as people with deep pockets may investigate it for themselves and hoover up the profits. An edge shared is an edge halved and all that. In this instance, though, I'm sorry to say that I doubt there was an edge to begin with.