Quit my job to do this as a living!

[wearthefoxhat]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

[blackmoor83]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

Be good if you find them to have a look would be an interesting read. Thanks for the message, do you mainly trade football if so which markets are you into?

[blackmoor83]

Nice one Blackmoor and good luck with your system. I will give it a go on Liv vs Utd in the hope Mou parks the bus.... I think it could work well on the golf so all good and thank you very much All the best.

That was my sport growing up the golf ( was the year below Justin Rose who also played for Hampshire) unfortunately never got to his level of plus 5 handicap I was a mere 1 handicap! Those guys are on another level!

If you do have a go just need to make sure cash out when you can etc etc. That’s the biggest thing I have learned in the numerous years before I would rather lose a 2or3k bet than just take the £200-300 cash out loss I was always hoping it would go my way!
At times it would but the bullet would always get me eventually.

[trader44]

"’mostly been a tail of doing ok for a bit then blowing my bank this pattern repeated for years "
experienced this myself for a while. the only way to be steady is to have some trading rules and not break them under any circumstances.it sounds like you have some ability to make money but in my oipinion any one can make money for a period but doing it long term is on another level and the only way to get to that level is to make some rules and UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCED DO NOT BREAK THEM,

i read this somewhere and have it on my desk in front of me and read it before trading every day

" the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one
is what they do when faced with a red book .".

listen to the people on here they have been there done it and are successful

[spreadbetting]

I do love the way everyone states game selection is the key as if the market makers just offer generic prices for every 3-3 scoreline, bit like punters in the bookies backing odds on favourites because they win more often.

I'd imagine you should have quite a bit of data by now, so might be worth number crunching it to see if you'd actually have won more punting than trading and if you are beating the book on your 3-3 scores.

[blackmoor83]

I do love the way everyone states game selection is the key as if the market makers just offer generic prices for every 3-3 scoreline, bit like punters in the bookies backing odds on favourites because they win more often.

I'd imagine you should have quite a bit of data by now, so might be worth number crunching it to see if you'd actually have won more punting than trading and if you are beating the book on your 3-3 scores.

According to the stats have the table earlier on this thread a 3-3 score comes along every 102 games on average done 800 games now. So in that theory should have had around 8 3-3 results in the 800 games I have picked only 2 have finished that way both of these games I was out once the score line reached 2-2.

So I would say my selections have been beating the betfair prices. As a hit rate of 2 in 800 makes odds of 400/1 I would say I’m averaging picking games around the 80-100/1 mark I only go for games pre kick off, never under and circumstances go for a game say 1-1 after 30 minutes. I have learned that lesson the hard way in the past.

Obviously I don’t get every game right you can never fully tell but I’m very disciplined and never just let it run hopping for the best.....

I appreciate this sort of thread is similar to the 0-0 strategy which people always harp on about on the betfair forum! But I feel my strategy stands me in good sted! Time will tell

[spreadbetting]

I'm not sure where the actual trading comes in to be honest, it seems you're just picking the outsider in the correct score market and laying it pre off then closing out if the result starts to become a possibility. I'd guess if Betfair still had the 4-4 scoreline you'd be 'trading' that instead. It just deosn't seem from what you've said that you're actively trading the scoreline other than one in and out bet.

I'm not sure you can draw too many conclusions from your 800 bet sample set especially with the expected result being around a 1% chance of occurring. Have you considered the fact that if you are laying 400/1 shots at 100/1 the likelihood is you will be throwing away your opening vaue when you close the bets as they'll just following the odds progression of an expected 100/1 shot especially with the 3-3 scoreline usually being a possibility throughout the whole game.

[LinusP]

Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7

[Cards37]

Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7

Great read, thanks Linus.

[LeTiss]

Forget about Premium Charge - you won't pay tax, and PC only comes into force when you are in the money, so cross that bridge when you get to it. I'm assuming that if you've been making £5k a month recently, but are still not paying PC yet, then you must have blown lots of money previously. Therefore, tread carefully because you clearly have a reckless side when things are not going well

[wearthefoxhat]

Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7

Thanks for posting info.

Dare I say it...game selection is vital too. (there said it) ...A strong performing Home or Away side, capable of slamming in any number of goals is harder to predict an actual correct score. I'd more than likely centre any staking around the any other score market and estimate other likely CS scenarios. Using the variable dutching programme, I would take profits on those and minimise risk with insurance/acceptable losses on others.

There are plenty of games to choose from, take Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo @ 3.15pm today.

Any Other Home @ 6.20 Best profit
1-0 @ 7.40 Profit
2-0 @ 6.60 Profit
3-0 @ 9.80 Profit
1-1 @ 11.50 Profit
0-0 @ 15.50 Insurance
2-1 @ 10.50 Insurance
3-1 @ 13.50 Insurance
0-1 @ 29.00 Insurance

All others tweak for acceptable losses, (similar to a stop-loss) around 3x of highest target profit scenario.

If I get it totally wrong (quite possible), maybe as Atletico played in the Europa League s few days ago, (mind you easy 3-0 win), then I'm still in the game in the long run.

[Trader Pat]

I am putting on trades around the 4-5k mark mainly on 3-3 score!

Hi,

This does mean you're liability for any given trade is 4-5k?

If the answer is yes then you're really playing with fire. What happens when there is a Betfair outage? You'll find yourself staring at a suspended screen unable to do anything.
Most traders have experienced this and the insurance policy is to skip onto Betdaq and cover your position on there but at those kind of liabilities there wont be the liquidity on Betdaq to hedge your position.

If your 'day job' was only 10 days of work a month it might have been wiser to stick with it until you've got a year ot two under your belt making consistent profits. It only takes one outage to wipe out an entire months profits and then you're into the unchartered territory of how you deal with that mentally.

Don't mean to be negative but a Betfair outage is a very real possibility.

[Atho55]

Stats from CgmBet

These Leagues and Seasons

Export with counts by occurance

[footysystems]

This can be done very easy using InPlay stats IMO

[Original-Soultrader]

Good luck footysystems - fortune favors the brave