Quit my job to do this as a living!

[max_usted]

What makes you such a good trader laying 3-3 draws? Better than all the other traders out there? How can life deal you such an easy hand, but not me?

Because making £5k a month surely puts you among the elite.

The 'creme de la creme', and no mistake!

Before these last 6 months I have lost thousands over the previous 12 years. Obviously I’m not saying I’m a genius etc but the biggest change is taking losses and actually feeling pleased to take them now!

I don’t go for every match out there I do look at previous form but the biggest thing is it has to be live or a stream as I watch all the matches. Basically only feel like a lightbulb went on 6 months ago so a wasted 12 years but hopefully the next 12 will be a positive outcome

So are you just laying the scoreline '3-3'? If you are only using one strategy, do you ever feel the temptation to deploy it even though your mind kind of recognises that the match characteristics aren't suitable? This is a problem I came across.

Will be great to hear how you get on and congratulations on taking the plunge -

[max_usted]

OK, but what I'm getting at is this:

Why can't anyone do this for similar returns?

The market doesn't just give people £5k a month. So what's different about your approach? Taking losses ( or not) doesn't differentiate to the tune of 60 grand a year tax free. It never has done and it never will.

There must be something special about your strategy. What's the missing piece in the puzzle?

This strategy will provide returns where the match is low-scoring or very one-sided. Therefore he has to find low-scoring or one-sided matches, and then it will be successful!

[weemac]

This strategy will provide returns where the match is low-scoring or very one-sided. Therefore he has to find low-scoring or one-sided matches, and then it will be successful!

Yes, I know how the correct score market works. Which, given the enhanced odds available on the 3-3 scoreline in perceived low scoring matches, makes his returns all the more remarkable.

Quite staggering, in fact.

[max_usted]

This strategy will provide returns where the match is low-scoring or very one-sided. Therefore he has to find low-scoring or one-sided matches, and then it will be successful!

Yes, I know how the correct score market works. Which, given the enhanced odds available on the 3-3 scoreline in perceived low scoring matches, makes his returns all the more remarkable.

Quite staggering, in fact.

Obviously the worry is that you might become over-enthused about a spell in which you didn't encounter any of the thumping losses that must occasionally come along.

[weemac]

Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that?

[max_usted]

Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that?

Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.

[blackmoor83]

OK, but what I'm getting at is this:

Why can't anyone do this for similar returns?

The market doesn't just give people £5k a month. So what's different about your approach? Taking losses ( or not) doesn't differentiate to the tune of 60 grand a year tax free. It never has done and it never will.

There must be something special about your strategy. What's the missing piece in the puzzle?

I wouldn’t say my strategy is impossible but I do think the taking smaller losses rather than a huge loss is the biggest key factor that’s where 95% of people fail on betfair whether it’s footy or horse racing knowing when to exit a trade is the key!

I did find a site which I can’t seem to get hold of now which had the statistics for all the matches in the prem league I think showing that percentage of games finishing 3-3 was 0.90% roughly. So 1 in 90! Obviously if I’m taking odds of 50 or 60/1 I’m getting good value & a slight edge.

One game last week PSG v real was 35/1 to finish 3-3 finished 1-2 I exited the match at 60 minute stage took £110 cash out rather than wait for £150. I saw the value as champ league knockout games and this one I thought would be tight! PSG were missing Neymar plus I thought Madrid would b more defensive.

I know the markets don’t give you 5k a month I have been working hard each day finding the matches and researching what games will in my opinion be low scoring. But like I said before I think the key is accepting not going to get it right every game and taking the loss ad not losing a huge amount on one match....

[blackmoor83]

Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that?

Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.

Hi max, I hear what you are saying about 2 high scoring matches on the spin could be disastrous i completely agree with that if I was letting every match run no matter what to the end of 90 mins.

I’m a huge fan of cashing out for either profit or losses. Gets the money out for another trade and also protects against crazy last 10 minutes at times.

I don’t believe I’m anything special at all I do have a good knowledge on football though 30 years and failed many times in the past.

I hear what you say about many other markets I have dabbled in trading matches pre kick off with a bit of success but find I would need a much bigger bank to make this more worth while. What’s your strategy are you on mainly footy?

[blackmoor83]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

[henbet22]

Nice one Blackmoor and good luck with your system. I will give it a go on Liv vs Utd in the hope Mou parks the bus.... I think it could work well on the golf so all good and thank you very much All the best.

[wearthefoxhat]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

[blackmoor83]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

Be good if you find them to have a look would be an interesting read. Thanks for the message, do you mainly trade football if so which markets are you into?

[blackmoor83]

Nice one Blackmoor and good luck with your system. I will give it a go on Liv vs Utd in the hope Mou parks the bus.... I think it could work well on the golf so all good and thank you very much All the best.

That was my sport growing up the golf ( was the year below Justin Rose who also played for Hampshire) unfortunately never got to his level of plus 5 handicap I was a mere 1 handicap! Those guys are on another level!

If you do have a go just need to make sure cash out when you can etc etc. That’s the biggest thing I have learned in the numerous years before I would rather lose a 2or3k bet than just take the £200-300 cash out loss I was always hoping it would go my way!
At times it would but the bullet would always get me eventually.

[trader44]

"’mostly been a tail of doing ok for a bit then blowing my bank this pattern repeated for years "
experienced this myself for a while. the only way to be steady is to have some trading rules and not break them under any circumstances.it sounds like you have some ability to make money but in my oipinion any one can make money for a period but doing it long term is on another level and the only way to get to that level is to make some rules and UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCED DO NOT BREAK THEM,

i read this somewhere and have it on my desk in front of me and read it before trading every day

" the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one
is what they do when faced with a red book .".

listen to the people on here they have been there done it and are successful

[spreadbetting]

I do love the way everyone states game selection is the key as if the market makers just offer generic prices for every 3-3 scoreline, bit like punters in the bookies backing odds on favourites because they win more often.

I'd imagine you should have quite a bit of data by now, so might be worth number crunching it to see if you'd actually have won more punting than trading and if you are beating the book on your 3-3 scores.