Breakeven or Win

[jimibt]

good luck - it's the little combos like this that i love, where staking and hedging balance can take you into either a breakeven or a decent win. there are 2-3 other similar markets that i use similar approaches on to good effect (0-0 vs AO fave on the CS market for example).

keep us posted.

[BetScalper]

good luck - it's the little combos like this that i love, where staking and hedging balance can take you into either a breakeven or a decent win. there are 2-3 other similar markets that i use similar approaches on to good effect (0-0 vs AO fave on the CS market for example).

keep us posted.

Interesting...

I am actually thinking that we could dutch lay 3 different markets but 1 of the dutch's would be placed at half-time, if needed.

The 3 different market odds would need to be 1.05, 3.5 and 5.0 (Decimal).

Liquidity on the Liverpool v Man City games shouldn't be a problem in those markets.

[oitheboy]

I think you are missing the third scenario that could lead to a loss. All calculations assume 5% commission and you get the odds stated

Scenario 1 - Goal first half

Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay but win £99.75 on the lay HT 0-0. Net result -£0.25

Scenario 2 - No goals

Win £950 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and lose £420 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £372.5

Scenario 3 - No goals first half, goal in second half

Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and win £99.75 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £-157.75

[jimibt]

having looked into this in a bit more detail, i'm afraid to say that finding games that have the required balance on the opening ou05 and ht 0-0 is proving to be a little difficult, that said, maybe the greater reality on those odds can be used in some other fashion, but you certainly need the ou05 odds to be sub 1.07 before seriously looking at any combos here...

[edit] - maybe Celtic v Dundee could be used in a slightly different way? https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .141933063

[Derek27]

Hi,

I am no expert, so bear with me.....

A. Lay £100 (Liability) on Over 0.5 @ 1.10 = Win £1100 (Less commission) or Lose £100.
B. Lay £105 on Half-time correct score 0 - 0 @ 2.5 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £150.

If a goal is scored then you roughly breakeven. I think.

However, if no goal is scored then at half-time you Lay £105 on Correct score 0-0 @ 5.0 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £420.

At the end of the game you either breakeven or you win £1100 - (£150 + 420) = £530 less commission.

Thoughts or did I get it totally wrong ?

Cheers,

I see what I was missing now. The full-time 0-0 lay bet would have to be for £257.50+commission to cover the first two bets, leaving a liability of over £1000.

At least it got us all thinking!

[Kafkaesque]

It's a bit like this oldie but goodie. Not sure if it was ever debated on here (as it was doing the rounds way before my time here). Probably a hoax imho though.

http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gam ... half-time/

[lmf21734]

The strategy being discussed and then found not to really work was a great try and sometimes it can be so emotionally draining to think you have found something only to then realize there is an Achilles heel in the thought process.

Unfortunately the betfair exchange is terribly efficient when it comes to football and as others have said doesn't provide the swing opportunities you would get in tennis or darts and there is no perfect balance you find between any combination of markets without there being a level of liability lurking somewhere.

That said there are still ways to profit on football trading but its a matter of embracing strategies where your reward is greater than your risk and finding a win rate that helps to ensure there is a positive expectancy over many trades and understanding the behaviour of the normal distribution process.

Cheers

Mel (The Scientia Trader)