Breakeven or Win

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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BetScalper
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Hi,

I am no expert, so bear with me.....

A. Lay £100 (Liability) on Over 0.5 @ 1.10 = Win £1100 (Less commission) or Lose £100.
B. Lay £105 on Half-time correct score 0 - 0 @ 2.5 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £150.

If a goal is scored then you roughly breakeven. I think.

However, if no goal is scored then at half-time you Lay £105 on Correct score 0-0 @ 5.0 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £420.

At the end of the game you either breakeven or you win £1100 - (£150 + 420) = £530 less commission.

Thoughts or did I get it totally wrong ?

Cheers,
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Derek27
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A £100 lay liability at 1.10 wins £1000!
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BetScalper
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:01 am
A £100 lay liability at 1.10 wins £1000!
Derek, my maths is terrible. :)

So, would I breakeven or win £1000 - (£150 + £420) = £430 less commission or have I had too much rum on a school night ?
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Derek27
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A lay of £105 at 2.5 has a liability of £157.50, not much difference.

I don't trade or look at football but the important question is, for most games, would you get 5.0 for a 0-0 draw at half time?

Other than that I can't see anything wrong with the plan.
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BetScalper
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:11 am
A lay of £105 at 2.5 has a liability of £157.50, not much difference.

I don't trade or look at football but the important question is, for most games, would you get 5.0 for a 0-0 draw at half time?

Other than that I can't see anything wrong with the plan.
I think you would need to find games whereby the Correct score 0 - 0 odds drop by half at half-time. I have seen them drop from 10 to 5 on certain low scoring leagues.

Further investigation needed, stats wise, on the best league to test it on.

Cheers,
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Derek27
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I've just looked at the Liverpool v Man. City match tomorrow.

Under 0.5 goals trades 1.05-1.06.

No liquidity in the half time score market but looks 4ish.

Full time score trading 19-20, so it looks feasible.

The downside is, obviously, most of the time you break even. But if it turns out you have nothing to lose at half time...

Good luck.
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Derek27
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BetScalper wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:51 pm
Hi,

I am no expert, so bear with me.....

A. Lay £100 (Liability) on Over 0.5 @ 1.10 = Win £1100 (Less commission) or Lose £100.
B. Lay £105 on Half-time correct score 0 - 0 @ 2.5 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £150.

If a goal is scored then you roughly breakeven. I think.

However, if no goal is scored then at half-time you Lay £105 on Correct score 0-0 @ 5.0 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £420.

At the end of the game you either breakeven or you win £1100 - (£150 + 420) = £530 less commission.

Thoughts or did I get it totally wrong ?

Cheers,
Looking at it again, if no goal is scored in the first half but a goal is scored in the second half, you would have needed to lay the full-time 0-0 draw for about £165 to recover your loss for the half-time lay, giving a liability of £660. Still amounts to a profit though.
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BetScalper
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Hi Derek,

Yeah, the liquidity on the half-time score market doesn't really get going until 1 hour before the game starts but I think its feasible.

Will give it a go using small stakes, although I doubt that game is going to end 0 - 0 at full-time etc.

Still, interesting.

Thanks for your inputs.

Cheers,
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Dallas
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:11 am
A lay of £105 at 2.5 has a liability of £157.50, not much difference.

I don't trade or look at football but the important question is, for most games, would you get 5.0 for a 0-0 draw at half time?

Other than that I can't see anything wrong with the plan.
French have the lowest scoring leagues in Europe, Ligue 1 = 2.38, Ligue 2 = 2.33
I'de avoid the Dutch Eredivisie which is the highest with an avg = 3.08

For reference, the PL is 2.66

But remember that will all be factored into the prices already
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Dallas
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And for 0-0

Over 10% of French Ligue and Serie B matches end 0-0
Only 4.7% of Dutch Eredivisie end 0-0
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BetScalper
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Thanks Dallas,

I think I have found a way to place a 4th bet at half-time which means we eat into our 0 - 0 profit but secures a profit overall if the game finishes 0 - 0 or a goal is scored in the 2nd half of the match.

That should be more favourable stats wise.

So, we need games to be 0 - 0 at half time and then we don't care what happens at the end of the game.

This means...

We either breakeven 1st half if a goal is scored or we make a profit 2nd half regardless of what happens.
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jimibt
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what would you see the 4th bet as being?? lay ou15 or ou25??
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BetScalper
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jimibt wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:47 am
what would you see the 4th bet as being?? lay ou15 or ou25??
Hi Jim,

I could be wrong but it looks like lay o1.5 but i need to do some more research on what the average o1.5 odds are at half-time if the score is 0 - 0 etc

Any thoughts ?

Cheers,
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jimibt
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BetScalper wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:08 am
jimibt wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:47 am
what would you see the 4th bet as being?? lay ou15 or ou25??
Hi Jim,

I could be wrong but it looks like lay o1.5 but i need to do some more research on what the average o1.5 odds are at half-time if the score is 0 - 0 etc

Any thoughts ?

Cheers,
yes, i do have a small thought as i play on ou15 and ou25 all the time. :) ou15 would be sitting at about 1.9-2.0 at ht with no goals. the 1ou15 market usually opens between about 1.2 and 1.4 odds, depending on the game, so might be scope to grab the early odds there.
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BetScalper
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jimibt wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:17 am
BetScalper wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:08 am
jimibt wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:47 am
what would you see the 4th bet as being?? lay ou15 or ou25??
Hi Jim,

I could be wrong but it looks like lay o1.5 but i need to do some more research on what the average o1.5 odds are at half-time if the score is 0 - 0 etc

Any thoughts ?

Cheers,
yes, i do have a small thought as i play on ou15 and ou25 all the time. :) ou15 would be sitting at about 1.9-2.0 at ht with no goals. the 1ou15 market usually opens between about 1.2 and 1.4 odds, depending on the game, so might be scope to grab the early odds there.
That was my thinking. Looking at the various odds on offer in the different markets then Liverpool v Man City game looks prime for testing this theory.

Cheers Jim. :)
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