My thoughts on Southampton

[brimson25]

And the folly of £2.44 accumulator bets (to tidy up your account) which feel like much greater losses....

[Euler]

Unlucky, as were Southampton not to get a point.

[brimson25]

Cheers. I thought Austin had done it for them - and me.

Why doesn't he start games? I always have the sense that he pops up and scores when I see him, but that might be confirmation bias. Has he been saddled with an "impact sub" tag? Or age?

[LeTiss]

Cheers. I thought Austin had done it for them - and me.

Why doesn't he start games? I always have the sense that he pops up and scores when I see him, but that might be confirmation bias. Has he been saddled with an "impact sub" tag? Or age?

Been injured for months. Only came back last week against West Ham and looked totally off the pace (whilst also being starved of service)

[wearthefoxhat]

I've a strong belief Southampton will avoid the drop. (It will be close for sure).

drop.PNG

My view would be to back Hudds @ 5/4 (to join WBA and Stoke). For me the game in hand is less important than the goal difference. Also they have played 4 of their last 5 games away from home. Any sort of win will make all the difference!

[Euler]

Tactically they got it right yesterday. If they play like that they have a chance, if they play like they did at Newcastle and West Ham they are doomed!

[Euler]

LeTiss, do you have your FA CUP semi-final ticket?

[LeTiss]

LeTiss, do you have your FA CUP semi-final ticket?

No. I couldn't really make it anyway, so didn't even try

I'm assuming you're going then?!

[brimson25]

I've a strong belief Southampton will avoid the drop. (It will be close for sure).


drop.PNG


My view would be to back Hudds @ 5/4 (to join WBA and Stoke). For me the game in hand is less important than the goal difference. Also they have played 4 of their last 5 games away from home. Any sort of win will make all the difference!

I fancied West Ham, post pitch invasion and pre-tonking Southampton.

[Trading96]

Speaking of the FA Cup Semi Finals

Man Utd v Tottenham is very interesting...

Market pricing it like a home game for Tottenham (they play home games at Wembley)

For reference odds for PL corresponding fixture:

Tottenham 2.3x

Man Utd 3.4

Draw 3.3

If we assume these odds were correct, then I think there is value on Man Utd in the FA Cup.

The crowd accounts for the home advantage, not the grass length or pitch dimensions.

[wearthefoxhat]

Speaking of the FA Cup Semi Finals

Man Utd v Tottenham is very interesting...

Market pricing it like a home game for Tottenham (they play home games at Wembley)

For reference odds for PL corresponding fixture:

Tottenham 2.3x

Man Utd 3.4

Draw 3.3

If we assume these odds were correct, then I think there is value on Man Utd in the FA Cup.

The crowd accounts for the home advantage, not the grass length or pitch dimensions.

Good approach on that one. Maybe trade the FA Cup winners outright market whilst the semi final is IP.

[Trading96]

Speaking of the FA Cup Semi Finals

Man Utd v Tottenham is very interesting...

Market pricing it like a home game for Tottenham (they play home games at Wembley)

For reference odds for PL corresponding fixture:

Tottenham 2.3x

Man Utd 3.4

Draw 3.3

If we assume these odds were correct, then I think there is value on Man Utd in the FA Cup.

The crowd accounts for the home advantage, not the grass length or pitch dimensions.

Good approach on that one. Maybe trade the FA Cup winners outright market whilst the semi final is IP.

Yes pretty big drift a Tottenham now today which is a good thing, if it breaks 2.5 convincingly won't need to take risk in play.

[SeaHorseRacing]

It’s not very often I get a sleepless night over a football game. Come on Saints!!! Europe football next season could be our ticket back to PL.

[brimson25]

1.4 is very clearly the wrong price on Chelsea. Good luck.

[Kafkaesque]

It’s not very often I get a sleepless night over a football game. Come on Saints!!! Europe football next season could be our ticket back to PL.

Made this point in another thread, but if rules allow it, the sensible thing, for me, would be to pass on playing Europe (assuming you go down). Not trying your bubble on a big day for you guys, as I'll be cheering you on. However, assume a guessismate of 6 games in Europe and 8 in the two domestic cups, then it's a 60-match season. If the calendar is the same as this year, there's 275 days in the season making it about a match every 4.6 days. That's a tough schedule a top-tuned PL-side. For a team dropping into a more physical league, needing to rebuild a team but having little to no training time to do so, it's more likely a Sunderland-ticket than a PL one.