My Daily Trading Results - Scientific Trading

[LeTiss]

Well done, who says chasing doesn't pay.

Be kind to him mate, he won't be here for long

[ShaunWhite]

I was fast approaching my daily maximum loss and so took a 5:1 risk to reward ratio on my final trade of the day

These 'risk:reward' ratios are meaningless without knowing the chance of pulling it off. You can't escape value.

If a player/team will go +10 or -2 ticks if X or Y happens, you still need to know how likely X & Y are. A big gain vs a small loss is still a losing setup if the gain scenario is as rare as hens' teeth. Volatility is the mechanism that determines the r:r ratio, but you still need to outperform it, and know when it's likely to occur.

[Halliday]

Well done, who says chasing doesn't pay.

Be kind to him mate, he won't be here for long

Starting with a bank of £5.000 according to his website , and "risk management and discipline are crucial".I'm going to take your advice and be kind,and make no comment about what his P/L is saying. Deep breath....

http://www.scientiatrading.com/intro.htm

[lmf21734]

Great question.

All this is explained for those with the willingness to search for me online or on twitter. Not going to disclose all fundamentals in a forum message.
By the way the win rate is 55% and average reward to risk is 1.8:1

Put that into a monte carlo simulation over 125 occurrences and see the equity curves.

Point of this is exercise on the forum is to simply provide daily results.

Thanks

Mel (The Scientia Trader)

[ruthlessimon]

I was fast approaching my daily maximum loss and so took a 5:1 risk to reward ratio on my final trade of the day

I'd just like to add, Shaun's post is absolutely spot on.

& again, this is how "non-traders" get away with complete murder. Yes, money management is vital, if you have an edge/positive expectancy/"value".

Taking a 5:1 trade, with no edge - is just as bad as taking 1:5 trade, with no edge.

& here's where the false educators slip up - if you push them further ("do you even trade Mr/Miss. X") - then you realise just how shallow they are behind their "theories".

The hardest bit about trading, is getting the edge that fits your personality/goals. The 0 expectancy gap is small, but 95% can't break through it.

[lmf21734]

Sorry that was a typo it was a 5:1 reward to risk ratio not 1:5....I cant be going on about the need to ensure you reward is greater than your risk and then be trading a 5:1 risk to reward. C,mon guys surely you would have sensed that had to be a typo....

[ruthlessimon]

Put that into a monte carlo simulation over 125 occurrences and see the equity curves.

An interesting point to consider, one of the best traders in the world disagrees with your viewpoint:

viewtopic.php?p=136111#p136111

The key bit - "I use data a lot to construct ideas but almost never to backtest strategies." & lets face it a monte carlo sim just enhances the reliability of a backtest

[ruthlessimon]

Sorry that was a typo it was a 5:1 reward to risk ratio not 1:5....I cant be going on about the need to ensure you reward is greater than your risk and then be trading a 5:1 risk to reward. C,mon guys surely you would have sensed that had to be a typo....

I didn't even notice. I was pointing out, the probabilities naturally adjust when you change the R:R (in the case of no edge). Hence why trading is so difficult - & that's just the edge part. The other two parts (frequency & scale), square the difficulty.

[lmf21734]

Wow I must be enjoying the longest luckiest ride after 800 back tested trades and 125 live trades. Will just enjoy the ride then until it comes to an end.

Fortunately when I followed a simple formula that takes into account win rate, reward to risk and number of occurrences everything changed for the positive.

13th April 2018
Net P/L = £225.25

The daily, weekly and monthly results will be the final arbitrator so lets see.

13apr18.jpg

[lmf21734]

Oh and by the way some of the worlds greatest traders also use monte carlo. Traders (Peter Brandt and Van Tharp) who were interviewees in Jack Schwagers "Market Wizards".

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/traders-he ... mpetition/

Also Dr Van Tharp another market wizard also uses monte carlo

http://vantharp.com/products/Power_of_P ... lained.asp

So what's your point.

Thats why i dont really give a monkeys about what people in the sports industry say. My methods and philosophy are based on principles from financial traders who consistently talk about how your edge can work given the combination of win rate, risk to reward, sample size and money management.

They way I trade is what I call disruptive trading because it rattles the archaic and constrained way of approaching trading that I constantly see in the sports industry especially from system sellers. Yet what is required is just an understanding of simple math. The difficult part is finding the edge. That I agree with. But when you have the edge that is where things start to really becoming interesting.

Anyway I have said my peace. Reading about Copernicus and how he disrupted the people of his day is a great day.

I will continue to post daily trades and I assure you in 3 months time I will come back to ask whether you think something which is a fluke could continue for 4-5 months considering that over 125 trades will be placed each month.

Cheers

Mel (The Scientia Trader)

[ruthlessimon]

Sorry - the worlds best manual sports trader disagrees with your viewpoint. (& if he doesn't, then I misread his post badly wrong!!)

I think it's important to be open to new ideas. Whenever someone challenges my viewpoint (with a valid argument) I always strive to understand it - & it might just make me a better trader. Although that said, there is certainly value in being dogmatic

[Halliday]

Oh and by the way some of the worlds greatest traders also use monte carlo. Traders (Peter Brandt and Van Tharp) who were interviewees in Jack Schwagers "Market Wizards".

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/traders-he ... mpetition/

Also Dr Van Tharp another market wizard also uses monte carlo

http://vantharp.com/products/Power_of_P ... lained.asp

So what's your point.

Thats why i dont really give a monkeys about what people in the sports industry say. My methods and philosophy are based on principles from financial traders who consistently talk about how your edge can work given the combination of win rate, risk to reward, sample size and money management.

They way I trade is what I call disruptive trading because it rattles the archaic and constrained way of approaching trading that I constantly see in the sports industry especially from system sellers. Yet what is required is just an understanding of simple math. The difficult part is finding the edge. That I agree with. But when you have the edge that is where things start to really becoming interesting.

Anyway I have said my peace. Reading about Copernicus and how he disrupted the people of his day is a great day.

I will continue to post daily trades and I assure you in 3 months time I will come back to ask whether you think something which is a fluke could continue for 4-5 months considering that over 125 trades will be placed each month.

Cheers

Mel (The Scientia Trader)

"have attached my results since Easter and will now update on a daily basis. The objective is to show how with a decent strategy that employs specific principles from financial trading, one can make a full time living from trading. For instance on Saturday I traded the morning session and then the evening session and made just under £1000. Also made a couple of £400+ days."

I can never understand the need to post P/L , especially as so many have been discredited on this forum and other sites . You have them on your website( could one ask why you decided to have a website ?) and on twitter .. if you desperately feel the need ( cant think why) for anyone on here to see your screenshots why not just post the link ?

It's strange how original posters language changes when there views , and strategies are challenged, as in your case. When you start saying things like "what's the point " and I don't really give a monkeys , it does make one wonder about your temperament, and begs the question why post on a forum, rather then concentrate on your trading without these distractions .

Sure we could all find something useful in a positive or negative way in your musings ...without the P/L

[Halliday]

Oh and you have your P/L on the Geek Toy forum too .. but of course not trying promoting anything !!

[lmf21734]

Halliday

You make some great points.

If you detect an irritating reaction its borne out of the fact for so many years I was taught that the approach I had studied in financial trading wasnt really applicable to sports trading and so I lost so many years until I decided to completely unlearn what I had been taught in sports trading forums about trading and go ahead an apply what I had learnt from financial trading.

And since then my consistency and profitability accelerated but not after I also worked on my psychology.

So when people try to bring me back to the theories and approaches that I left it naturally causes a reaction because its not possible for me to take what has been working and go back to approaches which were either very limited or simply didn't produce the rate of return that I was seeking.

However you have made a good point that a forum is all about debating and reasoning so I take your point on board.

Cheers

Mel (The Scientia Trader)

p.s. why does everyone think that someone has to have a motive to sell or promote something. Just dont understand. If you check my website its clearly about concepts. Nothing to do with sales...Its about challenging old paradigms and helping people to think outside the usual when it comes to their trading development.

[ShaunWhite]

If you're approach is systematic why do you set a max daily loss?

You also compare your strategy with 'trading systems' being sold.... I don't know any successful trader who's using an off the shelf system. Like you, everyone has their own approach.

I read your site, I'm not seeing anything especially 'disruptive' just an acceptance that your strike rate needn't be high to be profitable and borrowing as few standard principles from financials. What am I failing to understand that's justifying your not inconsiderable hype? Simply put, what's new? What paradigms are you challenging?

Some people here have been trading sports for almost 20yrs, you might be surprised what's been tried, maybe it's worth checking if you have indeed discovered something unique before claiming your approach beats any other and that current thinking isn't optimal. That said history is littered with people to whom that didn't seem to matter.