Sunderland

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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brimson25
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:38 pm
The 0-0 in CS market is @ 32

Don't think I have ever seen a football market priced up like this.

It's not Man City v Local pub team is it ????????
Yes, more or less!

I sometimes like to have a little play on CS odds like that. Assuming Sunderland can stop an early calamity, that will be 25s after 10 minutes. But that's a big punt.
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BetScalper
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brimson25 wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:47 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:38 pm
The 0-0 in CS market is @ 32

Don't think I have ever seen a football market priced up like this.

It's not Man City v Local pub team is it ????????
Yes, more or less!

I sometimes like to have a little play on CS odds like that. Assuming Sunderland can stop an early calamity, that will be 25s after 10 minutes. But that's a big punt.
I am tempted to LTD @ 9 and back 0-0 @ 32 and get out when the first goal goes in.
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ruthlessimon
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Wondered if anyone had the stats of when Sunderland conceded their goals? I'm sure I heard one of their fans saying that they consistently conceded late goals (particularly in the last 10mins) - but I'm not sure if it's true
max_usted
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:13 pm
Wondered if anyone had the stats of when Sunderland conceded their goals? I'm sure I heard one of their fans saying that they consistently conceded late goals (particularly in the last 10mins) - but I'm not sure if it's true
http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england2

Hmm according to the above, they have conceded by far the most in the league in the second half - but no particular problem with the last 15 minutes according the stats.
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ruthlessimon
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Ty for that Max, yeah might have just been a recent thing - & especially on their minds after the Burton debacle!

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weemac
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If you fancy a tight start to the match, bear in mind that 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 will ALL shorten in the absence of a goal (and possibly 1-1 too). There's an angle there.
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brimson25
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those tempting natural decay markets....
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Kafkaesque
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:08 pm
1.19 now.

Something's looking very strange here.

Its almost like the market thinks Sunderland won't even bother taking the field etc.

When has a team been that low before a ball has even been kicked.

Its not Real Madrid or Barcelona.
The market has seemed pretty standard to me, for a market priced in that range.

What I would worry most about in laying Fulham, would be Sunderland's line-up. With relegation confirmed they may decide to start looking to next season now, ie. not playing those with contract expery (that they most likely will not renew) and those on loan. I see on Sunderland's Twitter that they've just given a squad number to a 16-year-old! The price may take a dive when team news becomes available.
weemac
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I see no reason to be worried about anything. When identifying a possible good value lay at 1/5, what's to worry about? The worry's already priced in, surely?

I just don't get this analysis to the nth degree. If you don't like it, don't risk a penny on it.
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BetScalper
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Blimey.

Come on Sunderland. :)
max_usted
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northbound wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:09 pm
Fulham scored a grand total of 1 goal in the opening 15min in their home games this season, conceding 0.

A trading idea could be to lay them before the match with a view to closing the trade after 15min.
Would have worked well.
weemac
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

I backed under 1.5 goals at about 7.8 pre-match as a proxy for 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0, and had traded the majority of it out before the goal. Let's see if we can get to half time at 0-1 and then I'll complete the green-up. Thanks for the heads-up guys - it was a good trade idea whichever way you played it.
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BetScalper
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I did as I originally said and layed Fulham at 1.21 and got out after the goal at 1.87.

As always, wished I had layed them for more but a good trade to end the day.

Good luck, whichever way you played it. :)
weemac
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Typical, the equaliser comes in the 45th minute. Wish I'd laid Fulham instead, but you assess the risks and play accordingly, so no complaints.
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BetScalper
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I am going to use half the profit I made and lay Fulham again at 1.46.
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