Football trading : Champions League Outright Odds

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Trader Pat
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 2:29 pm

Interesting to hear other points of view on this but Real's odds here look big to me. Assuming Liverpool finish the job tonight these odds will drift out to 1.85 maybe 1.90! Huge imo, again it seems people are very poor in factoring in experience.
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Trading96
Posts: 387
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 2:54 pm

Liverpool have a big home advantage on European nights, they start fast and have a good atmosphere first 10-20 minutes , away from home and presumably at neutral ground it's not the same.

They still start fast because their players are fresh from not pressing the whole match but it's not the same.

Trader Pat
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 3:06 pm

Agreed, plus none of the LFC players have played in a Champions League final, Real have been there 3 of the last 4 years. The market is assuming the Liverpool that turns up in the final is the one we've seen throughout the competition. If that is the case then I'd fancy LFC but its a big ask for them to produce their usual brand of football in the final. It rarely seems to happen in finals unless you're Barcelona or Real Madrid. Hope I'm wrong though!

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RedBrain
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Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:20 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 3:09 pm

Lay for Liverpool looks interesting to me. If they win - maximum loss will be around 5-10% i think, and trade can be closed in the first half of the game - depending on what will be happening. But Roma have very good chances i think and profit can be good.

Trader Pat
Posts: 170
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 3:10 pm

RedBrain wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:09 pm
Lay for Liverpool looks interesting to me. If they win - maximum loss will be around 5-10% i think, and trade can be closed in the first half of the game - depending on what will be happening. But Roma have very good chances i think and profit can be good.
Will be interesting to see how Liverpool react if Roma score early.

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RedBrain
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Wed May 02, 2018 3:14 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:10 pm
RedBrain wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:09 pm
Lay for Liverpool looks interesting to me. If they win - maximum loss will be around 5-10% i think, and trade can be closed in the first half of the game - depending on what will be happening. But Roma have very good chances i think and profit can be good.
Will be interesting to see how Liverpool react if Roma score early.
Yes, also something bad for Liverpool can happen - injuries, suspensions, Salah... Real is very very strong and motivated I think they will win the UCL.

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BetScalper
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Wed May 02, 2018 3:21 pm

I have £2 on Roma. :)

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Wed May 02, 2018 4:40 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:29 pm
Interesting to hear other points of view on this but Real's odds here look big to me. Assuming Liverpool finish the job tonight these odds will drift out to 1.85 maybe 1.90! Huge imo, again it seems people are very poor in factoring in experience.
I'm curious as to why you're so certain the price would move that much, if something happens which the prices are suggesting is 90% + likely to happen? For me the market will just adjust the Liverpool price according to getting over the final Roma hurdle. At most a small up on the Real price because Liverpool will be perceived as the stronger opponent of the two, but cannot see it being by as much as you feel.

As for the price on Real being too big, whether at 1.80, 1.85, or 1.90, I'm with you as far as experience of big occassions goes, and also subjectively the quality of the starting 11's. Real should be a bigger fav than that. It's such a strange and intriguing one though, as this one could well be determined in areas most matches aren't. You'll have the most in-form player in all of world football on a flank against Marcelo, who despite being a wonderful watch doesn't have many defensive bones in his body (and the covering centreback being Ramos, who's no stranger to doing something rash!). A lot will imo depend on whether Zidane can solve this issue. Given Bayern created chances almost at will for 180 minutes straight with little constructive response from Zidane, I think, that's gotta be a big question mark. Although on the flip side on the same side of the pitch, Marcelo and Asensio/Isco/Bale bombing on against Alexander-Arnold (unless Klopp brings in Clyne because of the occassion) should be enough to make any Pool fan sweat immensely.

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Korattt
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Wed May 02, 2018 5:28 pm

got my Roma scarf ready for tonight

Trader Pat
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Wed May 02, 2018 6:23 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 4:40 pm
I'm curious as to why you're so certain the price would move that much, if something happens which the prices are suggesting is 90% + likely to happen?
Right now Real are priced at 1.82 so a move to 1.85 isnt much and the price will drift with Roma out of the equation unless LFC have a poor game. Immediatley after the game assuming LFC go through I can see Real heading for 1.90 and then correcting in the days ahead so my plan would definitely be to lay Liverpool tonight (as much as that hurts me to do).

Everything you say I completely agree with but the caveat is none of these LFC players have been in a Champions League final before and practicaly all of the Real players have several times over so on experience alone I'd have Real priced somewhere nearer 1.60 which they'll probably be much closer to come the final.

If LFC turned up in the final I'd fancy them to put Real to bed but if they dont things could get ugly and even if they do in a close game with 15-20 minutes to go I'd fancy Real because of their experience plus Liverpools style of play, they've improved defensively the past few months but they're not built to sit back and soak up pressure even though they did well against Man City. For LFC to beat Real for me they'd need to do the job early and be at least 2 goals up at that stage.

Roma could win 3-0 tonight and this all could be irrelevant anyway! :D

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