Lay the draw / Plus insurance

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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BetScalper
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Something for the newcomers who are struggling and thinking about giving up.

The lay the draw (football) has been around nearly as long as betfair. Back in the day when a goal was scored by either team then the draw odds would fly out to nearly 9 from below 4s making loads of profit.

Things have changed since and now the odds can either not move at all or actually shrink.

But, all is not lost.....

- No team odds on favourite
- Lay draw odds below 4
- Correct score 0-0 >= 5 x the lay draw odds

What we are looking for is evenly matched teams in the match odds market.

- Lay the draw
- back 0-0 in the correct score market to cover your liability on lay the draw
- When a goal is scored by either team then push 80% of the profit onto Team A and Team B. This will leave a small profit on the draw to cover the amount you have now lost on Correct score 0-0.

If you like look at the premiership, then only around 30% of games end in a draw and even fewer end 0-0.

It won't make you rich but it is another strategy to add to your portfolio.

I been doing this on the top 3 leagues from UK, Spain, Germany, Holland, Italy, France and Belgium.

On average you will find around 20 games a week that fit the criteria above.

There is a game tonight in Spain whereby the lay draw odds were below 4 this morning and the Correct score 0-0 odds were 21. No clear favourite at the time.

Don't get greedy and don't expect the draw odds to go much past 5 after a goal goes in. So shift the profit when the market reforms asap.

The only risks you have is if your internet goes down or the betfair website goes tits up.

Avoid matches with odds on favourites because if the underdog scores first then you will be up a river without a paddle.

You will need to work out the stakes for each bet and 80/20 profit push.

If you need further help then pm me.

Have fun,

PS. Some stats people don't do the insurance bet. But if you stick to the method above then the insurance bet is actually a very small dent in your profit.
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jimibt
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another little tip, rather than a strategy per-se is to look at the LTD price if the score is 3-2 (or even 3-3) after 70 mins. the reason being that a 3-3 draw is a very rare occurrence and thus statistically in low order as a final score. that said, don't bet your house/granny on it!! ;)
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BetScalper
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Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

A couple of games in the Premiership tomorrow which should fit the criteria if there Correct score 0-0 odds increase to 15 or more. Currently at 13.

They should increase as the book% come down below 102%.

Remember:

- All selections in match odds between 2 and 4
- Correct score 0-0 >= 15
- 80/20 profit split when any team scores and the lay draw odds rise to >= 5

Cheer's,

PS. There is also 6/7 games in League 1 that will fit the criteria too. :)
greety
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 7:16 pm

Hi Betscalper. Interesting post, thanks.
Obviously the later the first goal, the better, I imagine.
I was paper trading the game in Spain on Friday night. (Sociedad). Unfortunately Flashscores goal alert chose not to work and I missed the goal.
My question is. Does this still work with a fairly early first half goal?
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BetScalper
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Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

greety wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 9:19 am
Hi Betscalper. Interesting post, thanks.
Obviously the later the first goal, the better, I imagine.
I was paper trading the game in Spain on Friday night. (Sociedad). Unfortunately Flashscores goal alert chose not to work and I missed the goal.
My question is. Does this still work with a fairly early first half goal?
It still works but game selection is key. If there is a goal and the draw odds don't move much then I begin reducing my liability on the draw by backing 1/3 of my original lay amount.

Chelsea v Liverpool looks a good one with the CS 0-0 currently at 16.5 and the match odds selections between 2.2 and 3.7.

If Chelsea score first then the draw odds are likely to increase to around 5.4 and Liverpool around 4.4. So, if its Liverpool first then the green up would not cover the insurance bet. In that case I would slowly reduce the liability as we go and see if one of them can go 2 goals clear.

Of course, if Chelsea score first then its an immediate 80/20 profit push.
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BetScalper
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Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

One thing you can do to help negate the underdog scoring first is to have more profit on the underdog.

If you look at the Chelsea v Liverpool game then the odds difference is around 30%.

So, if you have 30% more profit on Liverpool then this will help at green up time if Liverpool score first. It also means you have lower liability on the CS 0-0 insurance cover.
masnawor
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:50 am

BetScalper wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 4:17 pm
Something for the newcomers who are struggling and thinking about giving up.

The lay the draw (football) has been around nearly as long as betfair. Back in the day when a goal was scored by either team then the draw odds would fly out to nearly 9 from below 4s making loads of profit.

Things have changed since and now the odds can either not move at all or actually shrink.

But, all is not lost.....

- No team odds on favourite
- Lay draw odds below 4
- Correct score 0-0 >= 5 x the lay draw odds

What we are looking for is evenly matched teams in the match odds market.

- Lay the draw
- back 0-0 in the correct score market to cover your liability on lay the draw
- When a goal is scored by either team then push 80% of the profit onto Team A and Team B. This will leave a small profit on the draw to cover the amount you have now lost on Correct score 0-0.

If you like look at the premiership, then only around 30% of games end in a draw and even fewer end 0-0.

It won't make you rich but it is another strategy to add to your portfolio.

I been doing this on the top 3 leagues from UK, Spain, Germany, Holland, Italy, France and Belgium.

On average you will find around 20 games a week that fit the criteria above.

There is a game tonight in Spain whereby the lay draw odds were below 4 this morning and the Correct score 0-0 odds were 21. No clear favourite at the time.

Don't get greedy and don't expect the draw odds to go much past 5 after a goal goes in. So shift the profit when the market reforms asap.

The only risks you have is if your internet goes down or the betfair website goes tits up.

Avoid matches with odds on favourites because if the underdog scores first then you will be up a river without a paddle.

You will need to work out the stakes for each bet and 80/20 profit push.

If you need further help then pm me.

Have fun,

PS. Some stats people don't do the insurance bet. But if you stick to the method above then the insurance bet is actually a very small dent in your profit.
Do you reckon you can do this in automation, I mean i'm not sure how to get the automation to run across both markets and make the correct calculation to insure oneself.
nyergespeter
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Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:35 pm

Hi BetScalper!
How can I write a private message to you?
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

nyergespeter wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:21 pm
Hi BetScalper!
How can I write a private message to you?
Just send a pm.
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:35 pm
nyergespeter wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:21 pm
Hi BetScalper!
How can I write a private message to you?
Just send a pm.
Shaun, BetScalper has that magic machine with an encyclopaedia in it as well! :lol:
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:53 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:35 pm
nyergespeter wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:21 pm
Hi BetScalper!
How can I write a private message to you?
Just send a pm.
Shaun, BetScalper has that magic machine with an encyclopaedia in it as well! :lol:
????????????
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:18 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:53 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:35 pm


Just send a pm.
Shaun, BetScalper has that magic machine with an encyclopaedia in it as well! :lol:
????????????
likewise.. :D
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

jimibt wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:19 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:18 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:53 pm

Shaun, BetScalper has that magic machine with an encyclopaedia in it as well! :lol:
????????????
likewise.. :D
Am I missing something ?
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:27 pm
viewtopic.php?p=160980#p160980
I never commented on that thread, so what exactly am I being accused of ?
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