Any rules of thumb for football market moves?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Autolearner
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:28 pm

Forgive a newbie question, but here goes. Are there any rules of thumb to predict how a football market will react to a goal?

A case in point, I have just laid Senegal at 1.63 as they were 1-0 up against Poland, figuring there is a reasonable chance that the latter could pull one back. Now I understand that when such a goal comes will change the swing. But assume it comes say 30mins after the start of the second half, what might the price on Senegal reasonably be expected to move to?

I know what I should do is consult Soccer Mystic via Bet Angel, but unfortunately my PC is being repaired and will be away for a few days, and I am reduced to using the mobile app. So I was wondering if I should set an auto cash out, and at what level, hence the question.

If the answer is “it depends on a whole host of factors” then fine. But I wondered if there was a rule of thumb to say that you would expect it to go out roughly x% if a goal is scored?
Autolearner
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:28 pm

I realise the 2nd Senegal goal hasn’t helped matters from my perspective! But would still value any responses to my original hypothetical as to how much the odds would have moved from 1-0

Many thanks!
max_usted
Posts: 133
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

they go up n down, and that
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Autolearner wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:30 pm
I realise the 2nd Senegal goal hasn’t helped matters from my perspective! But would still value any responses to my original hypothetical as to how much the odds would have moved from 1-0

Many thanks!
You should always have a rough idea of what the betting would be following a goal, and it's something that comes with experience. If you trade to small stakes and the prices aren't what you were expecting following a goal, you'll remember it and be wiser next time.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

The best way to think of football is the average time for a goal and how much time is left.

If a team is 1-0 up after 20 mins there are still 70 mins left to score another and if the mean return time of a goal is 35 minutes then there are two more goals expected in the match. As we move into the final part of the match the odds will move rapidly as the chance of a goal decays away quickly.
footysystems
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:59 pm
The best way to think of football is the average time for a goal and how much time is left.

If a team is 1-0 up after 20 mins there are still 70 mins left to score another and if the mean return time of a goal is 35 minutes then there are two more goals expected in the match. As we move into the final part of the match the odds will move rapidly as the chance of a goal decays away quickly.
Peter/ Euler

That's correct look at averages, i take in the averages of time goal and SOT, Shot of target, DA and Attacks collect that data you wont go far wrong.
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