Simple poisson distributions have been shown to underestimate draws when compared to historical odds, there's plenty of academic articles about poisson and football. Because of that many people have tweaked versions of poisson to account for the draw deficiency using bivariate poisson models etc
I think there are so many variables when it comes to predicting football results you'll be lucky to find an edge over the market. If we look at the video Euler posted he's getting 11.8 for the draw whereas the Betfair market is sitting at 14 mid point so there's a large variation between the two and I'd be surprised if Euler is acheiving a 20% edge over the Betfair market with a simple system.
Take a look at the power of goals blog as that has quite alot of decent posts about football predicting
http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.com.
If you look at the post regarding odds decay over a match you'll see poisson distributions do tally in line with Betfair odds, now that may be due to the majority of MM's using their flawed poisson models but it does mean we have a half decent method of predicting future odds decay/distribution if not the actual scores.
http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.com/201 ... t-ten.html
I gave up trying to get a model to predict scores a long time ago.
